Cheltenham’s November Meeting is, for many, the start of the jumps season proper. To herald the return of Prestbury Park, Andrew Mount picks out four selections from the opening day’s card on Friday 13 November.
1.10 Cheltenham – Glancing Jack (1pt win – 13/8 generally)
Nine of the last ten winners of this 2m5f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle were five-year-olds and backing all 47 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£27.09 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). The expected number of winners, based on their odds, was 4.20, giving an actual over expected (A/E) figure of 2.12 (anything above 1.0 is good). Only five of the 20 runners fall into this category and this obvious one is Dan Skelton’s Glancing Jack, the mount of Harry Atkins, who is usally ridden patiently. Eight of the last ten winners came from off the pace and he looks a likely improver on his first start sicne leaving Tom Symonds.
2.20 Cheltenham – Saint Segal (2pt win – 9/2 generally)
This race looks playable as odds-on favourite Jonbon is not improving at the age of ten (older than the last ten winners) and is always liable to make a jumping error round here, Gidleigh Park has won just once from six chase starts and would be happier on softer going while Mighty Bandit’s jumping remains an issue. That leaves Saint Segal who will come on for last month’s comeback fourth at Ffos Las over the extended 2m3f trip on soft ground, conditions that stretch his stamina. Jane Williams’ six-year-old is the youngest in the line-up by two years and tend to run best at this time of year, recording form figures over 2m1f or shorter in November to January, of 1211123F272 (4-11), improving to 12111222 (4-8) away from Ascot.
2.55 Cheltenham – Thunder Rock (1pt win – 7/2 generally)
I love veterans’ handicap chases – they are confined to horses aged ten or older and relative youth (i.e. the ten-year-olds) enjoy a huge edge. They have a 16% strike-rate as opposed to around 10% for 11-year-olds, Unfortunately, we only have two horses aged 11+ and both are outsiders, though we can probably oppose one of the favourites – Outlaw Peter, who is best in the spring/early autumn – he’s won just once from 13 starts in the November to February period and that was when odds-on (4-7f) at Exeter on November 4th 2022. Thunder Rock is often let down by his jumping in big fields, but he’s won seven of his 13 chase starts in fields of nine or fewer runners, including the last three (big fields lead to crowding and can involve jumping errors). His career record in fields of nine or less, in races worth less than £20k to the winner stands at 11 wins from 14 starts. He’s jumped poorly in his three chase starts here but all came in valuable contests in the mud and Class 2 company on decent ground will be right up his street.Triple Trade runs well when fresh and landed one of these at Market Rasen last month on the back of a 193-day layoff. However, he’s won just once from seven starts when bidding to follow up a win. Glengouly has been strong in the market, but his last three wins have come when allowed to dominate and he looks highly unlikely to receive a soft lead here as Time To Bite (spring/summer type) usually goes off like the clappers. Mahons Glory is a bit of an oddball as he jumps out to his left but does well on right-handed tracks in spite of giving ground away at his fences. Some horse like jumping into space and he won’t get that here as the rail will to his immediate left. He’s only won one from six in this direction over fences and is another who can make the running. That said, he does look better at the age of ten (plenty of his sire’s progeny improve at the veteran stage) and he’s not the worst bet for the Exacta with Thunder Rock.
4.00 Cheltenham – Ocean Of Dreams (0.5pt e/w – 22/1 Hills, 20/1 generally)
The angle I favour in this 2m novices’ handicap hurdles is horses aged five and older, who were not making their handicap hurdle debut and had finished in the top five last time out. This system has found seven of the last nine winners from 59 bets for a profit of£99.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. Applying these rules hives us a shortlist of just Ocean Of Dreams, First Ascent, Ade boy, Final Surprise and Tuppence. Those lower down the weights often ran well, with the qualifiers ranked tenth or lower winning six from 29 and that leaves just Ocean Of Dreams, Ade boy and Final Surprise. I’ll be having something on all of them but with three of the four qualifiers who were ridden by a 5lb claimer emerging victorious (33-1, 28-1 and 100-30, the other was third at 18-1), like Sligo winner Ocean Of Dreams is, I’ll make him the main selection.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets Today
1.10 Cheltenham – Glancing Jack (1pt win – 13/8 generally)
2.20 Cheltenham – Saint Segal (2pt win – 9/2 generally)
2.55 Cheltenham – Thunder Rock (1pt win – 7/2 generally)
4.00 Cheltenham – Ocean Of Dreams (0.5pt e/w – 22/1 Hills, 20/1 generally)
FAQs: Today’s Racing Tips
Which racecourses run on Friday 13 November? Cheltenham, Sedgefield & Southwell.
Who is Andrew Mount? Andrew Mount is a professional tipster with over a decade of experience following UK and Irish racing. He combines form study, market moves and trainer intelligence to identify value bets each day, and shares his tips daily on X as @TrendHorses.
When was today’s article published? Today’s article was published at 4.50pm on Thursday 12 November.