In the 21 runnings of the Betfair Chase at Haydock, we’ve seen many multiple winners, which means there have been just 12 names on the trophy to date, and last year’s winner Grey Dawning is fancied to become yet another multiple winner of the race.
I’ve looked at all of those runnings to see if we can decipher which trends are relevant to landing the first Grade 1 of the British jumps season, and how likely it is that Grey Dawning does it again.
KEY TRENDS
- Be wary of 8-year-olds, and marginal preference goes to both 7yos and 10yos
- Winner likely to come from the top 3 in the market, but favourites are not profitable to back blind
- Should hold an OR of 164 or above, but doesn’t need to be the highest-rated runner in the field unless also the favourite
- Probably hasn’t run this season, although historically it’s not a negative
- Should have raced over 3m or further last time out, and in open company
- Not expected to have won last time out
- Has 10 or more runs and 4 or more wins over fences
- Of the 9 renewals won by a previous winner, none were Irish-bred
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 3/21 (14%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 6/21 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 3/21 (14%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 5/21 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 3/21 (14%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 1/21 (5%) & 0/10 (0%)
Since the race was first run in 2005, it’s now been bookended by 8yo winners, but they are the most significant loss-makers if backed blind, with just an 8% strike-rate, which is half of the next lowest. Both 7yos and 10yos have been profitable to back blind since the race was established.
In the last 10 renewals, it’s 8yos again who have the lowest strike-rate, at 7%, while it’s only 7yos who are profitable to back blind, although 6yos hold a marginally higher win rate, 33% to 31%.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/21 (43%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Second favourites – 6/21 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Third favourites – 4/21 (19%) & 2/10 (20%)
All winners from the last 10 renewals came from the top 3 in the betting, and each market position is profitable to back blind. That said, it’s the second and third favourites that operate at an ROI of 50% and beyond, so they’re better to follow blind, with a £10 profit from 19 qualifiers.
Over the entire history of this race, most winners have still come from the top 3, but favourites are not profitable to back blind, whereas again, second and third favourites are.
There has never been a winning fourth or fifth favourite in this race!
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 164 or more – 16/21 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with the TOP OR – 8/21 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
There has only been one winner of this race who did not have an OR of 160 or higher, so there is no doubt it’s classy horses who take this, and typically you’re looking for an OR of 164 or above.
It’s not always the highest-rated runner who lands this contest, but 7 of the 9 winning favourites were also the highest-rated runner in the field. Only Silviniaco Conti, the second favourite, was the highest-rated runner to win this race without being sent off favourite.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran between 18 and 27 days ago – 11/21 (52%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran 199 days ago or more – 10/21 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Sent off favourite – 13/21 (62%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Won last time out – 6/21 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran at 3 miles plus – 17/21 (81%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in open company – 20/21 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
More winners than not in recent years had NOT raced this season, and they all came from either Aintree or Cheltenham, with one exception coming from the Irish Grand National (still a big race).
With recent winners coming from those big festivals the previous season, it’s less likely that they were sent off favourite last time out, but it is essential for them to have raced at 3 miles or further and in open company.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 16/21 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Haydock – 11/16 (69%) & 7/8 (88%)
- First-time winners who had RUN at Haydock – 7/12 (58%) & 3/5 (60%)
- First-time winners who had WON at Haydock – 3/7 (43%) & 2/3 (67%)
With so many horses taking this race on more than one occasion, we must consider that when looking at course form, especially with the requirement to have won here too. That said, a horse can be forgiven for having been beaten here if it has only raced here once.
Looking at first-time winners of this race, it’s still important to have been here and preferably to have won here, but again, if they’ve only been here once, they can be forgiven for not winning.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at 3 miles or further – 18/21 (86%) & 10/10 (100%)
Two of the three winners who had NOT won at 3 miles or further were 6-year-olds trained by Paul Nicholls. It is expected that the winner of this race has already won at 3 miles or further.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had 10 or more RUNS over fences – 16/21 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 4 or more WINS over fences – 18/21 (86%) & 9/10 (90%)
We have to consider the number of multiple winners of this race in this metric too, but regardless, the expectation will be for 10 or more runs and 4 or more wins over fences, proving experience is a prerequisite for landing this race.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 17/21 (81%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won more than one Grade 1 – 12/17 (71%) & 5/8 (63%)
Most winners of this race had already won a Grade 1, and plenty were multiple Grade 1 winners. Again, the number of multiple winners of this contest, and the fact this is a Grade 1, just adds weight to that requirement.
Of the 12 first-time winners of this race, 8 had no more than one previous Grade 1 win.
BREEDING
- French-bred – 13/21 (62%) & 7/10 (70%)
It’s not profitable to back all French-breds in this race, but it wouldn’t lose you much money either. If they’re not French-bred, then look to the Irish-breds, who have won all other renewals bar the trio that Cue Card won as the only British-bred winner of this race.
Curiously, no multiple winner of this race has been Irish-bred, which is something Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning will be attempting to change this year.
Commercial notice: This article on GG.co.uk contains affiliate links. The offers we promote come from operators that we trust and our experts have first-hand experience dealing with. If you open an account through one of these affiliate links then GG will earn revenue. However, we ensure that the money earned goes back into improving and enhancing our coverage of horse racing and other sports, as we look to provide an excellent service to our growing audience.