Course form is vital at certain tracks in Great Britain and Ireland, and Cheltenham is one of them. The home of National Hunt racing has two unique tracks staged in the amphitheatre of the Cotswolds. Their undulating, left-handed, stiff nature requires a strong-travelling, fluent jumper and a jockey with a calm, level head.
With both courses so testing for a horse to complete, why does it appear so rare for a winner at the October meeting to follow up in March?
Friday
Just one Graded contest is staged across the two opening days, the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle. The race has seen some talented winners in the past, such as the 2015 Champion Bumper winner Moon Racer, 2019 Kauto Star winner Slate House and 2024 Clarence House winner Elixir De Nutz.
Despite producing some smart horses, it hasn’t come close to producing a Festival winner in the last ten years, with the six winners to contest a race in March all well beaten, recording form figures of PF3000. For Pleasure came the closest when third in the Supreme behind Appreciate It, but he was still beaten 26 lengths.
Some talented sorts have come from the 2m4f novices’ hurdle on Friday too. Potters Charm took the race last season before going on to win the Grade 2 Hyde, the Grade 1 Formby and the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle (albeit awarded it after the winner was demoted), but he was well beaten, by 18 lengths, in the Turners’.
Six of the other nine winners went on to contest a race at the Festival that season. Three of them were beaten in the Coral Cup, with the other three beaten in the Turners’, the Pertemps and the Martin Pipe.
The Catesby Estates Novices’ Chase has produced some fine chasers down the line, but again, all four of the last ten winners to contest a race in March were beaten. Straw Fan Jack and Al Dancer were no match for their Arkle counterparts and North Hill Harvey fell when favourite for the Grand Annual, although Fusil Raffles was a solid second to Chantry House in the Marsh Chase.
Saturday
Saturday has largely followed the trend of the previous day in failing to deliver a winner in March. The three-mile novices’ hurdle requires a stiff test of stamina, with just two hurdles in the home straight on the Old Course, but that stamina has failed to come to the fore later in the season.
Seven winners of the race went on to run at Cheltenham in March, all in the Albert Bartlett, with form figures of 3PP033P.
The Pertemps Qualifier is a race you’d suspect would throw up some contenders for the Pertemps Final in March, as you can get your horse qualified and then mind its mark through the season.
From the top four in each of the last ten renewals, 16 have gone on to the Pertemps Final, with form figures of 090060U0F6200P01. The sole winner was Supremely West last year. He was a staying-on third in the qualifier before subsequent form figures of 546. He was then heavily punted into favouritism for the Pertemps Final and duly obliged, proving just how savvy the Skelton operation has become.
The three-mile novices’ chase has had some success in March, as Galvin completed the double when taking the National Hunt Chase on his next start, and Chemical Energy was second in that race a year later after his November win.
Why October winners struggle in March
So, just one horse from the last 70 winners at the October meeting has gone on to success in March. Why is this the case? For starters, the meeting is often run on ground that’s still dry from the summer. Horses with a summer campaign can often come up trumps in October, as they’re naturally more race-fit than their peers who are being primed for a winter campaign.
Also, having one ready to win in October and still at the top of its game by March is incredibly tough. Furthermore, Willie Mullins’ camp have barely risen from their summer sleep at this stage. The Closutton maestro tends to ramp up his operation at the back end of November and into early December.
Generally, the October meeting wouldn’t be the most natural starting point for connections with a Festival winner in mind, and while we can enjoy the return of the Prestbury Park action this week, I’d err on the side of caution when it comes to taking the form as gospel come March.