The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Shorien in the 13:20 at Redcar, the biggest market move among seven qualifiers. The price has shortened from 22/1 to 10/1 with 16 of 21 bookmakers cutting, and Archie Watson’s stable has 3 winners from 11 runners over the past fortnight. No runner reaches three signals today, and Fakenham’s meeting has been abandoned.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Seven runners qualify today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shorien | 13:20 Redcar | Backed / Trainer | 22/1 to 10/1 · Watson 3 winners from 11 in 14 days |
| 2 | Miss Willows | 16:48 Redcar | Backed / Jockey | 33/1 to 20/1 · Fallon 14 winners from 69 rides at Redcar |
| 3 | Getawhisky | 14:37 Uttoxeter | Backed / Jockey | 10/3 to 7/4 · Skelton 139 winners from 480 rides at Uttoxeter |
| 4 | Eeetee | 17:23 Redcar | Backed / Course | 25/1 to 16/1 · 4 wins from 10 at course |
| 5 | Parisiac | 16:37 Haydock | Backed / Napped | 12/1 to 8/1 · 2 naps |
| 6 | Rogue Encore | 18:15 Newcastle | Napped / Course | 2 naps · 3 wins from 10 at course |
| 7 | Turbocharged | 13:27 Uttoxeter | Napped / Jockey | BGTips.co.uk and Mercury naps · Skelton 139 winners from 480 rides at Uttoxeter |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Shorien:
“Shorien is top of the list on the strength of the market. A move from 22/1 to 10/1 with 16 of 21 bookmakers cutting is a big one for a two-year-old with one run behind it, and Archie Watson has had three winners from 11 in the past fortnight. I wouldn’t read much more into it than that, though. Its only form figure is a 0, it’s rated 39, and Extragalactic, the Computeform nap, is rated 82 and odds-on in the same race. Somebody clearly expects a lot of improvement, but at 10/1 you’re betting on that improvement rather than anything Shorien has shown so far.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Shorien · 13:20 Redcar
Shorien has been backed from 22/1 to 10/1 for the first division of the Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes, over a mile for two-year-olds, with 16 of 21 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Archie Watson trains, and his stable has had 3 winners from 11 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. Pierre-Louis Jamin rides at 9st 7lb. Shorien is rated 39 and has a single 0 in its form figures, while Extragalactic, the Computeform nap, is top-rated on 82.
2. Miss Willows · 16:48 Redcar
Miss Willows has been cut from 33/1 to 20/1 for the racingtv.com Handicap over seven furlongs, with 15 of 21 bookmakers cutting, and is the nap of Sam Hardy in the Weekender. The second signal is the jockey: Cieren Fallon has ridden 14 winners from 69 rides at Redcar, a 20% strike rate. The seven-year-old has won one of two starts at the course, carries 9st 1lb and is rated 75 in a field of 20, with Highfield Viking top on 78. Simon Whitaker trains.
3. Getawhisky · 14:37 Uttoxeter
Getawhisky has shortened from 10/3 to 7/4 for the Mares’ Beginners’ Chase over two miles, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Harry Skelton rides for Dan Skelton, and his record at Uttoxeter is 139 winners from 480 rides, a 29% strike rate. The six-year-old carries 11st 4lb in a field of five, in which Folie Golith is the highest rated on 142, and comes into the race with form figures of 4F145.
4. Eeetee · 17:23 Redcar
Eeetee has been backed from 25/1 to 16/1 for the Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap over a mile and a quarter, with 18 of 21 bookmakers cutting, and has won four of ten starts at Redcar. The North in the Racing Post also makes the eight-year-old their nap. John Wainwright trains and Mr Matt Brown rides at 10st 10lb off a rating of 52, with Kitsune Power and Jam Lass top of the field of 15 on 57.
5. Parisiac · 16:37 Haydock
Parisiac is napped by Marlborough in the Daily Telegraph and The Judge at The Favourite, and has been cut from 12/1 to 8/1 for the Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap over five furlongs on heavy ground, with 15 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Iain Jardine trains the seven-year-old, who is rated 98, four pounds below top-rated Eye Of Dubai, and Billy Loughnane rides at 8st 12lb. Parisiac has not won in three previous runs at Haydock.
6. Rogue Encore · 18:15 Newcastle
The first of two qualifiers without a market signal. Rogue Encore has shortened from 9/2 to 3/1 for the Margaret Macklam Memorial Handicap over a mile, with 13 of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed, and is napped by Ian Gaughran in the Irish Herald and RP Ratings in the Racing Post. The five-year-old has won three of ten starts at Newcastle and is top-rated in the field of ten on 91. Peter Chapple-Hyam trains and Luke Morris rides at 9st 13lb.
7. Turbocharged · 13:27 Uttoxeter
Turbocharged is napped by two of the top three tipsters over the past 28 days, BGTips.co.uk and Mercury in the Daily Post, for the British EBF National Hunt Novices’ Hurdle. The price has shortened from 8/13 to 1/3, but only 5 of 14 bookmakers have cut by 20% or more, so there is no market signal; the bigger move in the race has been for Lunar Trix, from 11/2 to 13/8. Like Getawhisky, the five-year-old is ridden by Harry Skelton for Dan Skelton, and carries 11st 0lb.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Thursday 15 October, and their picks today. Mercury and Ratings Hub are level in second:
- BGTips.co.uk: 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Turbocharged, 13:27 Uttoxeter.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Turbocharged, 13:27 Uttoxeter.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Monmouth, 17:30 Dundalk.
Monmouth misses the list because its price has drifted from 15/8 to 9/4. The most-napped horse of the day is Irish Nectar in the Shape Engineering Handicap at 17:07 Haydock, with four naps. Naps are its only signal and the price has moved only from 9/4 to 15/8, so it misses the list too. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Habari (16:08 Newcastle): 40/1 to 12/1, a 68% move.
- Lunar Trix (13:27 Uttoxeter): 11/2 to 13/8, a 60% move.
- Castan (15:37 Redcar): 11/1 to 4/1, a 58% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Thursday’s Hot List had eight runners and one winner. Gone Rogue (5/1) was short of room at Brighton under two furlongs out but, once switched, kept on to lead in the final strides and win by a neck. Velvet Outlaw (evens) was second in the bumper at Perth, beaten a length and a quarter, and at the same meeting Old Habits (11/8) was third in a maiden hurdle and Tap Tap Shamie (7/4) fourth in a handicap hurdle. Eastern Fire (11/8) fell at the last while pressing the leaders and I Wish You (9/4) unseated three out, both at Perth. List topper Miralago (6/1) weakened before three out and finished sixth at Fontwell, and Berning Hot (4/1) was 13th at Brighton. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £6 from £8 staked, a loss of £2. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:33 BST on Friday 16 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 2 October to 15 October.
18+ | BeGambleAware.org