The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Miralago in the 16:04 at Fontwell, the biggest market move among eight qualifiers. The price has shortened from 9/1 to 4/1 with 22 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and Gavin Sheehan has ridden 64 winners from 286 rides at Fontwell. No runner reaches three signals today, and Sean Bowen rides three of the eight for Olly Murphy at Perth.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Eight runners qualify today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miralago | 16:04 Fontwell | Backed / Jockey | 9/1 to 4/1 · Sheehan 64 winners from 286 rides at Fontwell |
| 2 | Gone Rogue | 16:25 Brighton | Backed / Course | 9/1 to 5/1 · 3 wins from 8 at course |
| 3 | Old Habits | 13:55 Perth | Backed / Jockey | 9/4 to evens · Bowen 108 winners from 348 rides at Perth |
| 4 | Tap Tap Shamie | 15:05 Perth | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Bowen 108 winners from 348 rides at Perth |
| 5 | I Wish You | 14:30 Perth | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Russell and Scudamore 4 winners from 15 in 14 days |
| 6 | Berning Hot | 16:55 Brighton | Napped / Course | 2 naps · 2 wins from 4 at course |
| 7 | Eastern Fire | 12:55 Perth | Napped / Jockey | BGTips.co.uk nap · Skelton 16 winners from 54 rides at Perth |
| 8 | Velvet Outlaw | 16:50 Perth | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Bowen 108 winners from 348 rides at Perth |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Miralago:
“Miralago tops the list on market support and Gavin Sheehan’s record at Fontwell, where he’s ridden 64 winners from 286 rides. A move from 9/1 to 4/1 with 22 of 24 bookmakers cutting is a strong one, but it isn’t the only one in the race, because Roi Du Risk has been backed from 5/1 to 2/1. Miralago is rated 123, two pounds below Koukeo, and the last two runs were a pull-up and a fifth, so there’s something to forgive. It’s a fair chance, but most of the price has already gone, and I’d have Roi Du Risk as the one to beat.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Miralago · 16:04 Fontwell
Miralago has been backed from 9/1 to 4/1 for the tigerbet.co.uk Download Our App Handicap Chase over 2m 3f 104y, with 22 of 24 bookmakers cutting, level with Roi Du Risk (5/1 to 2/1) as the biggest move in the race. The jockey provides the second signal: Gavin Sheehan has ridden 64 winners from 286 rides at Fontwell, a 22% strike rate. Georgina Nicholls trains the eight-year-old, who carries 11st 13lb and is rated 123, two pounds below top-rated Koukeo in a field of seven.
2. Gone Rogue · 16:25 Brighton
Gone Rogue has been cut from 9/1 to 5/1 for the bet365 Handicap over 7f 216y, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won three of eight starts at Brighton. Gary and Josh Moore train the five-year-old, who is rated 77 in a field of 15, a pound behind joint top-rated Platinum Prince and Darvel. Tom Queally rides at 9st 12lb.
3. Old Habits · 13:55 Perth
Old Habits has shortened from 9/4 to evens for the Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Maiden Hurdle over 2m 47y, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Sean Bowen has ridden 108 winners from 348 rides at Perth, a 31% strike rate. Olly Murphy trains the five-year-old, whose form figures read 12, and it carries 11st 4lb in a field of ten.
4. Tap Tap Shamie · 15:05 Perth
Tap Tap Shamie is napped by Computeform at The Racing App and by sportinglife.com for the Every Irish Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle over 2m 47y. The price has shortened from 9/4 to 11/8, with 16 of 22 bookmakers cutting, a 27% move that falls short of the 30% needed for a market signal. Sean Bowen rides for Olly Murphy again. The six-year-old is top weight on 12st 0lb and rated 118, with Magnolia the top-rated runner on 125.
5. I Wish You · 14:30 Perth
I Wish You is napped by Rockavon in the Sunday Mail and Sam Hardy in the Weekender for the Follow @racingtv On Instagram Handicap Chase over 2m 7f 180y. The stable provides the second signal: Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore have had 4 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. The six-year-old is the top-rated runner in a field of six on 135, and has shortened from 7/2 to 5/2, with 5 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Patrick Wadge rides at 11st 5lb.
6. Berning Hot · 16:55 Brighton
Berning Hot is napped by RP Ratings in the Racing Post and Newsboy in the Daily Mirror for the Position Payout At bet365 Handicap over 6f 210y, and has won two of four starts at Brighton. The four-year-old shares the top rating of 74 with Blue Collar Lad in a field of 14, and has shortened from 11/2 to 9/2, with 3 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Michael Attwater trains and William Carson rides at 9st 7lb.
7. Eastern Fire · 12:55 Perth
Eastern Fire is the nap of BGTips.co.uk, which has the best nap record of the past 28 days with 13 winners from 27, for the Join Racing TV Now Maiden Hurdle over 2m 4f 35y. Harry Skelton has ridden 16 winners from 54 rides at Perth, a 30% strike rate, and rides for Dan Skelton. The price has shortened from 5/4 to 10/11, with 1 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The five-year-old’s form figures read 21, and it carries 11st 4lb in a field of eight.
8. Velvet Outlaw · 16:50 Perth
Velvet Outlaw is napped by Mercury in the Daily Post, joint second on the 28-day nap table with 12 winners from 28, and Steve Mullington at William Hill Racing for the Racing TV Open National Hunt Flat Race over 2m 47y. Sean Bowen rides his third horse on the list for Olly Murphy. The four-year-old has no form figures and carries 11st 3lb in a field of four. The price has barely moved, shortening from 6/4 to 11/8 with no bookmaker cutting by 20%, while Cockle Bay Wharf has been backed from 22/1 to 9/1 in the same race.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Wednesday 14 October, and their picks today. Ratings Hub and Mercury tie for second:
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: Eastern Fire, 12:55 Perth.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Emerald Quest, 15:29 Fontwell.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Velvet Outlaw, 16:50 Perth.
Emerald Quest also has Harry Cobden’s Fontwell record (38 winners from 176 rides) in its favour, but the price has drifted from 2/5 to 8/15, so it misses the list. The most-napped horse of the day is Cosmic Girl in the 15:15 at Brighton, with four naps. Naps are its only signal and the price has drifted from 10/3 to 7/2, so it misses the list too. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Cockle Bay Wharf (16:50 Perth): 22/1 to 9/1, a 59% move.
- Wadima (19:00 Southwell): 11/1 to 4/1, a 58% move.
- Roi Du Risk (16:04 Fontwell): 5/1 to 2/1, a 50% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Wednesday’s Hot List had six runners and two of them won. List topper Ballycamus (6/1) took the Native River Handicap Chase at Ffos Las, leading approaching the last and keeping on, while Ben Solo (11/8) was headed soon after the last and finished third, beaten 18 lengths. Fast Track Harry (evens) led over a furlong out and kept on to win the London Sprint Series Final at Kempton. Believitanducan (5/2) was second in the Colwick Cup at Nottingham, beaten two and three-quarter lengths, You’re Sensational (3/1) was sixth at Kempton and Guard Your Dreams (100/30) was pulled up at Ffos Las. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £9.00 from £6 staked, a profit of £3.00. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:27 BST on Thursday 15 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 1 October to 14 October.
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