The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Ballycamus in the 16:05 at Ffos Las, the biggest market move among six qualifiers. The price has shortened from 10/1 to 9/2 with 23 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and the Twiston-Davies stable has 8 winners from 23 runners over the past fortnight. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Six runners qualify today. Computeform and Ratings Hub finished level on strike rate for the third top-three nap place over the past 28 days, so both count as top-three tipsters, and You’re Sensational qualifies on that basis.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballycamus | 16:05 Ffos Las | Backed / Trainer | 10/1 to 9/2 · Twiston-Davies 8 winners from 23 in 14 days |
| 2 | Fast Track Harry | 19:30 Kempton | Backed / Trainer | 7/2 to 13/8 · Cox 6 winners from 24 in 14 days |
| 3 | Ben Solo | 16:05 Ffos Las | Backed / Jockey | 3/1 to 7/4 · Sean Bowen 100 winners from 494 rides at course |
| 4 | Guard Your Dreams | 14:55 Ffos Las | Napped / Trainer | 3 naps · Twiston-Davies 8 winners from 23 in 14 days |
| 5 | You’re Sensational | 18:30 Kempton | Napped / Trainer | Computeform nap · Gosden 10 winners from 37 in 14 days |
| 6 | Believitanducan | 15:39 Nottingham | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · William Buick 47 winners from 193 rides at course |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Ballycamus:
“Ballycamus tops the list on the market move and the stable’s form. Going from 10/1 to 9/2 is a big shift, and Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies have had eight winners from 23 in the past fortnight, so I can see why it’s there. I’d want a bit more than that, though. The form figures read 79145, it’s rated 149 against 150 for both Neon Moon and Etalon, and nobody has napped it. Ben Solo, in the same race, has been cut from 3/1 to 7/4 and I’d rate it the more likely of the two, with Ballycamus the one to consider on price.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Ballycamus · 16:05 Ffos Las
Ballycamus has been backed from 10/1 to 9/2 for the Adept GRP Cabinets Native River Handicap Chase, over two miles, seven furlongs and 177 yards, with 23 of 24 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies train the nine-year-old, and the stable has had 8 winners from 23 runners over the past 14 days, a 35% strike rate. Sam Twiston-Davies rides at 10st 9lb and Ballycamus is rated 149, a pound behind Neon Moon and Etalon on 150.
2. Fast Track Harry · 19:30 Kempton
Fast Track Harry has been cut from 7/2 to 13/8 for the Unibet London Sprint Series Final Handicap, over six furlongs, with 17 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The Judge at The Favourite also names the four-year-old as their nap. Clive Cox trains, and his stable has had 6 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. Rossa Ryan rides at 9st 12lb and Fast Track Harry is rated 100, two pounds behind Space Bear on 102.
3. Ben Solo · 16:05 Ffos Las
The second qualifier from the Native River Handicap Chase. Ben Solo has been backed from 3/1 to 7/4, a 31% move, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Rebecca Curtis trains the seven-year-old, and Sean Bowen supplies the second signal, with 100 winners from 494 rides at Ffos Las, a 20% strike rate. Bowen rides at 10st 11lb and Ben Solo is rated 148, two pounds behind Neon Moon and Etalon.
4. Guard Your Dreams · 14:55 Ffos Las
Guard Your Dreams is napped by Andrew Mount in Racing and Football Outlook, Sam Hardy in the Weekender and Jason Heavey in The Star, and has been backed from 4/1 to 11/4 for the RWK Goodman Veterans’ Handicap Chase, with 16 of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed. The stable provides the second signal: Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies have had 8 winners from 23 runners over the past 14 days, a 35% strike rate. Sam Twiston-Davies rides the ten-year-old at 12st 0lb, and Guard Your Dreams is rated 144, a pound behind Sherborne and The Boola Boss on 145.
5. You’re Sensational · 18:30 Kempton
Without a market signal. You’re Sensational has shortened from 7/2 to 3/1 for the Juddmonte EBF Novice Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes, with 1 of 23 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed. The nap of Computeform at The Racing App, which has found 11 winners from its last 28 naps, provides the first signal. The stable provides the second: John and Thady Gosden have had 10 winners from 37 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. Robert Havlin rides the two-year-old at 9st 2lb over seven furlongs. It has run once, finishing fifth, and is rated 69, with Speed Nation top on 83.
6. Believitanducan · 15:39 Nottingham
Believitanducan has two naps, from Lee Sobot in the Yorkshire Evening Post and Mercury in the Daily Post, whose naps have found 13 winners from 28 over the past 28 days. The price is unchanged at 2/1 for the Colwick Cup Handicap, so the market gives no signal. William Buick supplies the second, with 47 winners from 193 rides at Nottingham, a 24% strike rate, and rides the five-year-old at 10st 4lb. Alan King trains, and Believitanducan has won three of its last four starts and is rated 87, four pounds behind Dunkeld Dreamer and Trojan Sun on 91.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Tuesday 13 October, and their picks today. Computeform and Ratings Hub tie for third:
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: In The Trenches, 13:25 Wetherby.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Believitanducan, 15:39 Nottingham.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: You’re Sensational, 18:30 Kempton.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Centurion’s Sister, 16:52 Wetherby.
The most-napped horse of the day is Rock N Roll Pinkie in the Colwick Cup Handicap at 15:39 Nottingham, with five naps. Those naps and three wins from 11 starts at Nottingham give it two signals, but the price has drifted from 11/2 to 7/1, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none reaches a second signal:
- Londoner (20:00 Kempton): 15/2 to 10/3, a 49% move.
- Fanion d’Estruval (14:55 Ffos Las): 18/1 to 9/1, a 47% move.
- Green Falcon (15:39 Nottingham): 5/1 to 9/4, a 46% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Tuesday’s Hot List had ten runners and none of them won, although five finished third. At Leicester, Catonahottinroof (9/1) led after a furlong and was headed inside the final furlong, Fenlander (13/2) briefly led inside the final furlong, and God Of War (11/2) and Ricardo Phillips (6/1) each had an every chance but could find no extra, all four finishing third in their races. Daydreama (22/1) was sixth in the same race as God Of War, and his jockey reported being denied a clear run. At Southwell, Winston’s Oath (4/6) was third after going easily three out before a bad mistake, and Dream Diamond (9/4) led early but weakened and did not finish. At Wolverhampton, Hamaleel (11/2) was sixth, Scarlet Moon (7/2) seventh and Neptune Legend (13/2) ninth. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned nothing from £10 staked, a loss of £10.00. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:20 BST on Wednesday 14 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 30 September to 13 October.
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