The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Hamaleel in the 17:30 at Wolverhampton, the biggest market move among ten qualifiers. The price has shortened from 10/1 to 4/1 with 22 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and Billy Loughnane has ridden 165 winners from 833 rides at the course, a 20% strike rate. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Ten runners qualify today, which fills the list, and an eleventh, Kodi Lion at 16:47 Leicester, which has two naps and trainer form, is left out by the cap. Computeform and Ratings Hub finished level on strike rate for the third top-three nap place over the past 28 days, so both count as top-three tipsters. That does not change today’s list.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamaleel | 17:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Jockey | 10/1 to 4/1 · Loughnane 165 winners from 833 here |
| 2 | Catonahottinroof | 15:04 Leicester | Backed / Trainer | 11/1 to 6/1 · Gosden 10 winners from 36 in 14 days |
| 3 | Neptune Legend | 19:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Jockey | 7/1 to 4/1 · Loughnane 165 winners from 833 here |
| 4 | God Of War | 16:47 Leicester | Backed / Trainer | 8/1 to 9/2 · Clover 5 winners from 16 in 14 days |
| 5 | Fenlander | 15:39 Leicester | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 7/1 · 2 wins from 6 at course |
| 6 | Daydreama | 16:47 Leicester | Backed / Napped | 33/1 to 20/1 · 2 naps |
| 7 | Dream Diamond | 15:10 Southwell | Backed / Jockey | 11/4 to 11/8 · Bowen 77 winners from 336 here |
| 8 | Ricardo Phillips | 17:17 Leicester | Backed / Course | 8/1 to 5/1 · 2 wins from 6 at course |
| 9 | Scarlet Moon | 19:00 Wolverhampton | Backed / Jockey | 10/3 to 2/1 · Murphy 140 winners from 624 here |
| 10 | Winston’s Oath | 16:52 Southwell | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Bowen 77 winners from 336 here |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Hamaleel:
“Hamaleel tops the list on the market move and the rider. Going from 10/1 to 4/1 is a heavy cut, with 22 of 24 bookmakers going shorter, and Loughnane wins around a fifth of his rides at Wolverhampton, so I can see why it’s there. I’d want a bit more than that, though. The form figures end in a 7, it’s only rated 75 and Light The Night Up is on the same mark. At 4/1 the market has done a lot of the work already, so I’d call it a fair chance rather than a bargain.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Hamaleel · 17:30 Wolverhampton
Hamaleel has been backed from 10/1 to 4/1 for the Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap, a Class 6 contest over 7f 36y with six declared, with 22 of 24 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Billy Loughnane has ridden 165 winners from 833 rides at Wolverhampton, a 20% strike rate, and takes the ride at 9st 9lb. Archie Watson trains the three-year-old, who is rated 75, level with Light The Night Up at the top of the ratings.
2. Catonahottinroof · 15:04 Leicester
Catonahottinroof has been cut from 11/1 to 6/1 for the British EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes, a Class 3 over 1m 53y with seven declared, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting. John and Thady Gosden have had 10 winners from 36 runners over the past 14 days, a 28% strike rate. Robert Havlin rides the two-year-old at 9st 2lb. Catonahottinroof has one previous run, when sixth, and is rated 59 against a top rating of 80 for New Year’s Eve.
3. Neptune Legend · 19:30 Wolverhampton
Neptune Legend has been backed from 7/1 to 4/1 for the Cavani Champion Style Handicap, a Class 6 over 6f 20y with 13 declared, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Billy Loughnane, who also rides the list topper, has a 20% strike rate at Wolverhampton and takes the ride at 9st 9lb. Tony Carroll trains the seven-year-old, who is rated 73, four pounds behind Koffee And Kale on 77.
4. God Of War · 16:47 Leicester
God Of War has been cut from 8/1 to 9/2 for the Happy 80th Reg Ling Handicap, a Class 3 over 7f with 18 declared, with 13 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Tom Clover has had 5 winners from 16 runners over the past 14 days, a 31% strike rate. David Egan rides the four-year-old at 9st 8lb, and God Of War is rated 101, a pound behind English Time on 102. Daydreama, also on the list, shares the 101 rating.
5. Fenlander · 15:39 Leicester
Fenlander has been backed from 12/1 to 7/1 for the Join Racing TV Now Handicap, a Class 5 over 6f with 18 declared, with 17 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of six starts at Leicester. Olly Williams trains the five-year-old and Warren Fentiman rides at 9st 12lb. Fenlander is rated 76 against a top rating of 80 for Bay Breeze.
6. Daydreama · 16:47 Leicester
The second qualifier from the Happy 80th Reg Ling Handicap. Daydreama has been backed from 33/1 to 20/1, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by Kieran McHugh in the Norwich Evening News and Fortunatus in the Sheffield Star. Tim Easterby trains the three-year-old, whose form figures end 000, and David Allan rides at 8st 12lb. Daydreama is rated 101, level with God Of War and a pound behind English Time.
7. Dream Diamond · 15:10 Southwell
Dream Diamond has been cut from 11/4 to 11/8 for the Case IH Drive Performance Drive Puma Handicap Chase, a Class 4 over 2m 4f 88y with six declared, with 20 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Sean Bowen has ridden 77 winners from 336 rides at Southwell, a 23% strike rate, and takes the ride at 11st 7lb. James Owen trains the six-year-old, who is rated 120, behind Palamon on 125 and Martin’s Denuo on 123.
8. Ricardo Phillips · 17:17 Leicester
Ricardo Phillips has been backed from 8/1 to 5/1 for the racingtv.com Handicap, a Class 6 over 1m 2f with 17 declared, with 15 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of six starts at Leicester. Henry Candy trains the five-year-old and Nicola Currie rides at 9st 7lb. Ricardo Phillips is rated 71, behind Little Tiger on 74 and New Objective on 73.
9. Scarlet Moon · 19:00 Wolverhampton
Scarlet Moon has been cut from 10/3 to 2/1 for the Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap, a Class 4 over 1m 5f 219y with seven declared, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Oisin Murphy has ridden 140 winners from 624 rides at Wolverhampton, a 22% strike rate, and takes the ride at 9st 9lb. Archie Watson, who also trains the list topper, has the four-year-old, who is rated 91, a pound behind Zachary Hickes on 92.
10. Winston’s Oath · 16:52 Southwell
The only qualifier without a market signal. Winston’s Oath has shortened from 13/8 to 5/4 for the Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle, with 3 of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed, and has two naps, from Ian Gaughran in the Irish Herald and Ratings Hub at attheraces.com. The jockey provides the second signal: Sean Bowen has ridden 77 winners from 336 at Southwell, a 23% strike rate, and takes the ride at 11st 5lb. James Owen trains the four-year-old, who is the top-rated runner in a field of 12 on 100.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Monday 12 October, and their picks today. Ratings Hub and Computeform tie for third:
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: Samui, 14:45 Punchestown.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Granlahan, 16:30 Punchestown.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Winston’s Oath, 16:52 Southwell.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: No More Bolero, 14:20 Hereford.
The most-napped horses of the day are Irish Nectar and That’s Random in the Join Racing TV Now Handicap at 15:39 Leicester, with four naps each. Naps are their only signal, and neither price has moved enough, so both miss the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Build A Bridge (14:10 Punchestown): 20/1 to 9/2, a 74% move.
- Yanka Blue (16:05 Hereford): 11/1 to 7/2, a 63% move.
- Imelda (17:30 Wolverhampton): 25/1 to 11/1, a 56% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Monday’s Hot List had ten runners, nine ran and two of them won. Woolridge (11/2) made all at Newcastle and went clear inside the final furlong, while Fear And Fast (17/2) led inside the final furlong at Musselburgh and just held on. Atmosphere (3/1) was second at Newcastle, beaten a neck, Second Fiddle (4/1) fourth and Maria Da Silva (5/2) fifth in the same Newcastle fillies’ handicap, and First Folio (11/1) was fourth at Yarmouth. Canaria Queen (9/1) was seventh at Musselburgh, Yorkshire Glory (10/1) tenth at Newcastle and Earls (11/1) eleventh at Roscommon. Island Bridge did not run at Worcester because of unsuitable ground. A £1 win bet on each runner at starting price returned £16.00 from £9 staked, a profit of £7.00. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:32 BST on Tuesday 13 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 29 September to 12 October.
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