The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Woolridge in the 20:30 at Newcastle, the biggest market move among 14 qualifiers. The price has shortened from 14/1 to 7/1 with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and Saffie Osborne has 14 winners from 71 rides at the course. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Fourteen runners qualify today, so the list is capped at ten. Starburster, Sonyourastar, Potters Charm and Kykorock each qualify on naps plus a jockey or trainer signal but rank below the cut.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Woolridge | 20:30 Newcastle | Backed / Jockey | 14/1 to 7/1 · Osborne 14 winners from 71 rides at course |
| 2 | Yorkshire Glory | 19:00 Newcastle | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 6/1 · 7 wins from 16 at course |
| 3 | Second Fiddle | 17:00 Newcastle | Backed / Course | 10/1 to 5/1 · 5 wins from 10 at course |
| 4 | First Folio | 16:24 Yarmouth | Backed / Course | 22/1 to 12/1 · 3 wins from 6 at course |
| 5 | Fear And Fast | 15:17 Musselburgh | Backed / Jockey | 10/1 to 11/2 · James 53 winners from 252 rides at course |
| 6 | Atmosphere | 20:00 Newcastle | Backed / Jockey | 13/2 to 7/2 · Osborne 14 winners from 71 rides at course |
| 7 | Earls | 14:00 Roscommon | Backed / Course | 14/1 to 9/1 · 3 wins from 8 at course |
| 8 | Canaria Queen | 15:17 Musselburgh | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 8/1 · 2 wins from 2 at course |
| 9 | Maria Da Silva | 17:00 Newcastle | Backed / Course | 4/1 to 5/2 · 2 wins from 2 at course |
| 10 | Island Bridge | 16:37 Worcester | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Bailey and Nicholls 3 winners from 11 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Woolridge:
“Woolridge tops the list on market support. Going from 14/1 to 7/1 is a big move, and with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting it isn’t one firm’s opinion. Saffie Osborne’s record at Newcastle helps, and at 7/1 it isn’t short. But the form figures read 839548, it’s rated 65, two pounds behind Reenie’s Dream, and a class 6 handicap is rarely straightforward. A price move tells you people like it, not that it’s good enough, so I’d treat it as one to consider rather than one to lean on.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Woolridge · 20:30 Newcastle
Woolridge has been backed from 14/1 to 7/1 for the Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap, a class 6 handicap over six furlongs on the Tapeta, with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Saffie Osborne has 14 winners from 71 rides at Newcastle, a 20% strike rate, and rides the four-year-old at 9st 9lb. Scott Dixon trains and Woolridge is rated 65 in a field of 13.
2. Yorkshire Glory · 19:00 Newcastle
Yorkshire Glory has been cut from 12/1 to 6/1 for the second division of the Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won seven of 16 starts at Newcastle, a 44% strike rate. Whistler in the Sunday Telegraph also naps the five-year-old. Ben Haslam trains and Andrew Mullen rides at 9st 10lb. Yorkshire Glory is rated 84, a pound behind Fizzy Cristal on 85.
3. Second Fiddle · 17:00 Newcastle
Second Fiddle has been backed from 10/1 to 5/1 for the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies’ Handicap, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won five of 10 starts at Newcastle. The seven-year-old is rated 78, a pound behind Sailor’s Return on 79. Iain Jardine trains and Andrew Mullen rides at 9st 8lb.
4. First Folio · 16:24 Yarmouth
First Folio has been cut from 22/1 to 12/1 for the First Furnishings Handicap, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won three of six starts at Yarmouth. The eight-year-old is rated 78, six pounds behind Raffles Angel and Ribenska on 84. Julie Camacho trains and Dylan Hogan rides at 9st 8lb.
5. Fear And Fast · 15:17 Musselburgh
Fear And Fast has been backed from 10/1 to 11/2 for the Watch On Racing TV Handicap, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Sam James has 53 winners from 252 rides at Musselburgh, a 21% strike rate, and rides the four-year-old at 8st 10lb. Jim Goldie trains, and Fear And Fast is rated 72, three pounds behind Royal Duke on 75.
6. Atmosphere · 20:00 Newcastle
Atmosphere has been cut from 13/2 to 7/2 for the Get Raceday Ready Handicap over seven furlongs and 14 yards, with 20 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Saffie Osborne has 14 winners from 71 rides at Newcastle, a 20% strike rate, and rides the four-year-old at 9st 6lb. Richard Spencer trains and Atmosphere is rated 81, six pounds behind Spartan Fighter on 87.
7. Earls · 14:00 Roscommon
Earls has been backed from 14/1 to 9/1 for the Guinness Handicap, with 17 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won three of eight starts at Roscommon, a 38% strike rate. The nine-year-old carries 9st 10lb and is the top-rated runner in a field of 16 on 86. Gavin Cromwell trains and Jack Kearney rides.
8. Canaria Queen · 15:17 Musselburgh
The second qualifier from the Watch On Racing TV Handicap. Canaria Queen has been cut from 12/1 to 8/1, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won both of its starts at Musselburgh. The Sunday Express also naps it. Tim Easterby trains the six-year-old, who is rated 73, two pounds behind Royal Duke on 75, and Duran Fentiman rides at 9st 8lb.
9. Maria Da Silva · 17:00 Newcastle
The second qualifier from the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies’ Handicap. Maria Da Silva has been backed from 4/1 to 5/2, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won both of its starts at Newcastle. Andrew Balding trains the three-year-old, who is rated 73, six pounds behind Sailor’s Return on 79, and P J McDonald rides at 9st 11lb.
10. Island Bridge · 16:37 Worcester
The only qualifier without a market signal. Island Bridge has shortened from 9/2 to 7/2 for the CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase over two miles and seven furlongs, with five of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed, and is napped by Karl Hedley in the Irish Post and On The Nose in the Racing Post. The stable provides the second signal: Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls have had 3 winners from 11 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. Ciaran Gethings rides the six-year-old at 11st 8lb in a field of eight.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Sunday 11 October, and their picks today:
- Mercury (Daily Post): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Minella Rockett, 16:00 Roscommon.
- BGTips.co.uk: 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Kykorock, 16:07 Worcester.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Sonyourastar, 14:07 Worcester.
Two horses are joint most-napped today with three naps each: Potters Charm in the Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow Novices’ Chase at 15:07 Worcester and Astracornus in the AKS Skip Hire Services Handicap at 14:54 Yarmouth. Astracornus has naps as its only signal, and the price has shortened from 11/4 to 9/4. Potters Charm has the trainer signal too, with Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies on 9 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, but the price has barely moved, from 2/5 to 4/11, and it ranks below the cut of ten. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Mount Ruapehu (20:30 Newcastle): 14/1 to 4/1, a 67% move.
- Runninsonofagun (20:00 Newcastle): 25/1 to 10/1, a 58% move.
- Mondammej (18:30 Newcastle): 20/1 to 17/2, a 54% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Sunday’s Hot List had five runners and one of them won. Bengal Tiger (2/9) made all in the Naas maiden and went clear halfway to win unchallenged. Room Fourteen (2/1) was fourth of 13 in the Goodwood fillies’ handicap, having taken a keen hold and pressed the leader, while Cerulean Bay (3/1) was eighth of 13 at Goodwood and Caburn (11/1) ninth of 14 after dwelling at the start. Caught U Sleeping (7/1) was 13th of 16 in the Listed Bluebell Stakes at Naas. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £1.22 from £5 staked, a loss of £3.78. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:35 BST on Monday 12 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 28 September to 11 October.
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