The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Room Fourteen in the 17:17 at Goodwood, one of two runners to reach three signals among five qualifiers. The price has shortened from 5/1 to 3/1 with 17 of 23 bookmakers cutting, it is napped by two tipsters, and James Fanshawe’s stable has 5 winners from 13 runners over the past fortnight.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Five runners qualify today. Room Fourteen and Cerulean Bay each reach three signals, and no tipsters tie for a top-three nap place.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Room Fourteen | 17:17 Goodwood | Backed / Napped / Trainer | 5/1 to 3/1 · 2 naps · Fanshawe 5 winners from 13 in 14 days |
| 2 | Cerulean Bay | 16:42 Goodwood | Napped / Course / Jockey | 2 naps · 2 wins from 3 at course · Fallon 22 winners from 120 rides at course |
| 3 | Caught U Sleeping | 15:40 Naas | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 11/2 · 2 wins from 3 at course |
| 4 | Bengal Tiger | 13:56 Naas | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Moore 49 winners from 133 rides at course |
| 5 | Caburn | 15:32 Goodwood | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Tate 3 winners from 12 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Room Fourteen:
“Room Fourteen is the only runner on the list with the market, the naps and the stable’s form all behind it. Going from 5/1 to 3/1 is a good move, and James Fanshawe has had five winners from 13 in the past fortnight. I’d be a touch cautious, though. The last two runs were both thirds, and at 94 it’s rated just a pound clear of Wisper on 93. At 3/1 it’s a fair chance rather than a bargain, so I’d want the price to hold up before getting involved.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Room Fourteen · 17:17 Goodwood
Room Fourteen has been backed from 5/1 to 3/1 for the Virgin Bet A Good Bet Fillies’ Handicap, with 17 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by Glendale in The Scotsman and by the Sunday Express. James Fanshawe trains the three-year-old, and his stable has had 5 winners from 13 runners over the past 14 days, a 38% strike rate. Billy Loughnane rides at 9st 8lb, and Room Fourteen is the top-rated runner in a field of 13 on 94, a pound ahead of Wisper on 93. It was third on its only previous start at Goodwood.
2. Cerulean Bay · 16:42 Goodwood
Cerulean Bay is napped by RP Ratings in the Racing Post and by Newsboy in the Daily Mirror, and has won two of three starts at Goodwood. The price has shortened from 8/1 to 13/2 with 4 of 23 bookmakers cutting, well short of the 30% move needed, so the market is not one of its signals. Cieren Fallon has ridden 22 winners from 120 rides at the course, an 18% strike rate. The five-year-old carries 10st 0lb in the Inkerman London Handicap and shares the top rating of 112 with Urban Lion. David O’Meara trains.
3. Caught U Sleeping · 15:40 Naas
Caught U Sleeping has been backed from 12/1 to 11/2 for the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bluebell Stakes, a Listed race for fillies and mares, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. The three-year-old has won two of three starts at Naas and is the only qualifier with no nap, trainer or jockey signal behind it. Noel Meade trains and Colin Keane rides at 9st 4lb. Caught U Sleeping is rated 108, behind In My Teens on 115 and Shaool on 113 in a field of 16.
4. Bengal Tiger · 13:56 Naas
The first race on the list. Bengal Tiger is napped by BGTips.co.uk and by Ratings Hub at attheraces.com, two of the three best nap tipsters over the past 28 days. The price has shortened from 8/11 to 1/3 with 15 of 23 bookmakers cutting, a 23% move that falls short of the 30% needed. Ryan Moore has ridden 49 winners from 133 rides at Naas, a 37% strike rate, and takes the ride at 9st 5lb. The two-year-old is rated 87 in the Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden, 21 pounds clear of Rejoinder on 66. A P O’Brien trains.
5. Caburn · 15:32 Goodwood
Caburn is napped by Sam Hardy in the Weekender and by Matt Polley at the Ipswich Star, and has been cut from 11/1 to 17/2 for the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap, with 11 of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more, though the overall move of 21% is short of the 30% needed. James Tate trains the four-year-old, and his stable has had 3 winners from 12 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. Hector Crouch rides at 9st 13lb. Caburn is rated 102, behind Deep Havana on 105 and Bone Marra on 104.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Saturday 10 October, and their picks today:
- Mercury (Daily Post): 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: Passenger, 17:07 Cork.
- BGTips.co.uk: 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Bengal Tiger, 13:56 Naas.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Bengal Tiger, 13:56 Naas.
The most-napped horses of the day are Brosay in the 15:32 at Goodwood and Zarak Crown in the 14:57 at Goodwood, with three naps each. Naps are their only signal, so both miss the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning that are not on the Hot List all miss out because none has a second signal:
- Midnight Doyen (13:27 Chepstow): 40/1 to 16/1, a 59% move.
- Dawnmore (14:30 Naas): 10/1 to 4/1, a 55% move.
- Pralognan (15:57 Cork): 11/1 to 5/1, a 50% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Saturday’s Hot List had ten runners, but Silver Sovereign was a non-runner and two of the other nine won. Sledgehammer (15/8) was held up before moving smoothly into the lead at the last and was ridden out to win the Hexham handicap chase comfortably, while Rock Montreal (11/8) led inside the final 110 yards to win the Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. Boiling Point (3/1) was fourth of five in the Darley Stakes, All In You (5/1) fifth of 15 and Thunder Run (11/2) ninth of 20 at York. Naval Tribute (17/2) was 14th and Shrimp Shady (28/1) 18th in the Cesarewitch, while Northern Milan (7/4) and Dinons (9/2) were both pulled up at Hexham. A £1 win bet on each runner at starting price returned £5.25 from £9 staked, a loss of £3.75. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:22 BST on Sunday 11 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 27 September to 10 October.
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