The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Naval Tribute in the 15:40 at Newmarket, the biggest market move among ten qualifiers. The price has shortened from 40/1 to 17/2 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and the Cesarewitch runner has four naps. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Ten runners qualify today, which fills the list. Computeform and Ratings Hub finished level on strike rate for the third top-three nap place over the past 28 days, so both count as top-three tipsters. That does not change today’s list.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Naval Tribute | 15:40 Newmarket | Backed / Napped | 40/1 to 17/2 · 4 naps |
| 2 | Sledgehammer | 16:55 Hexham | Backed / Trainer | 15/2 to 10/3 · Keatley 4 winners from 16 in 14 days |
| 3 | Boiling Point | 13:15 Newmarket | Backed / Course | 7/1 to 10/3 · 2 wins from 5 at course |
| 4 | Shrimp Shady | 15:40 Newmarket | Backed / Napped | 50/1 to 28/1 · 2 naps |
| 5 | All In You | 16:32 York | Backed / Trainer | 17/2 to 9/2 · Greatrex 4 winners from 15 in 14 days |
| 6 | Northern Milan | 13:43 Hexham | Backed / Trainer | 11/2 to 3/1 · Keatley 4 winners from 16 in 14 days |
| 7 | Dinons | 16:55 Hexham | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 7/1 · 2 wins from 7 at course |
| 8 | Thunder Run | 14:05 York | Backed / Course | 20/1 to 13/1 · 2 wins from 6 at course |
| 9 | Rock Montreal | 14:25 Newmarket | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Buick 408 winners from 1,804 at course |
| 10 | Silver Sovereign | 16:50 Newmarket | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Cox 7 winners from 28 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Naval Tribute:
“Four naps and a move from 40/1 to 17/2, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting it, is serious support for a Cesarewitch runner, and it’s easy to see why it tops the list. I’d still separate the chance from the price. It’s rated 113, two pounds behind Dawn Rising, in a 29-runner handicap over two and a quarter miles, and at 17/2 a fair bit of the good news is already in the price. It’s a fair chance, but I’d want a bit more than that.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Naval Tribute · 15:40 Newmarket
Naval Tribute has been backed from 40/1 to 17/2 for the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap, a Heritage Handicap over two miles and two furlongs, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. It also has four naps, from Rory Delargy in The Irish Field, The Brigadier at punterslounge.com, Ben Morgan at Racing Ahead and Spotlight in the Racing Post. James Owen trains the five-year-old, who is rated 113, third best in a field of 29 behind Dawn Rising on 115 and Gooloogong on 114, and George Wood rides at 8st 9lb.
2. Sledgehammer · 16:55 Hexham
Sledgehammer has been cut from 15/2 to 10/3 for the Tynedale RFC Community Rugby Handicap Chase, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Adrian Paul Keatley’s stable has had 4 winners from 16 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. The six-year-old carries 10st 2lb, is rated 112 and is one of nine runners over three miles at Hexham. Charlie Maggs rides.
3. Boiling Point · 13:15 Newmarket
Boiling Point has been backed from 7/1 to 10/3 for the Modern Games Darley Stakes, a Group 3 over a mile and a furlong, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of five starts at Newmarket. Karl Burke trains the five-year-old, who carries 9st 5lb and is rated 123, the highest of the five runners. Clifford Lee rides.
4. Shrimp Shady · 15:40 Newmarket
Shrimp Shady has been cut from 50/1 to 28/1 for the Cesarewitch, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has two naps, from Dave Nevison at Racing TV and The Duke in the Yorkshire Post. Andrew Balding trains the four-year-old, who is rated 112, and Rob Hornby rides at 9st 1lb.
5. All In You · 16:32 York
All In You has been backed from 17/2 to 9/2 for the Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Warren Greatrex’s stable has had 4 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. The six-year-old is rated 99 in a field of 14 whose top rating is 103, and Finley Marsh rides at 9st 8lb.
6. Northern Milan · 13:43 Hexham
Northern Milan has been cut from 11/2 to 3/1 for the Project Rugby Community Maiden Hurdle, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Adrian Paul Keatley trains, and his stable has had 4 winners from 16 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. It is a three-runner race over two and a half miles at Hexham, and Oakley Brown rides the five-year-old at 11st 4lb.
7. Dinons · 16:55 Hexham
Dinons has been backed from 12/1 to 7/1 for the Tynedale RFC Community Rugby Handicap Chase, with 20 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of seven starts at Hexham. The 13-year-old carries 11st 4lb. Brian Ellison trains and Brian Hughes rides.
8. Thunder Run · 14:05 York
Thunder Run has been cut from 20/1 to 13/1 for the Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap, with 14 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of six starts at York. Kieran McHugh at the Norwich Evening News also makes the five-year-old his nap. Thunder Run is rated 112, two pounds behind Insanity and Stoneacre Donny on 114, in a field of 20. Karl Burke trains and Jack Nicholls rides at 10st 2lb.
9. Rock Montreal · 14:25 Newmarket
One of two qualifiers without a market signal. Rock Montreal has two naps, from Newmarket in the Racing Post and from Mercury in the Daily Post, whose nap record over the past 28 days is the best of any tipster. The price has shortened from 6/4 to 11/10, short of the 30% move needed, and the jockey provides the second signal: William Buick has ridden 408 winners from 1,804 rides at Newmarket, a 23% strike rate. Roger Varian trains the two-year-old for the Emirates Autumn Stakes, a Group 3 over a mile with seven runners. Rock Montreal carries 9st 3lb and is rated 109, third best behind Notable Dream on 113 and Sergei Diaghilev on 110.
10. Silver Sovereign · 16:50 Newmarket
The other qualifier without a market signal. Silver Sovereign has two naps, from Lambourn and The Punt, both in the Racing Post, and the price has not moved from 7/2. The stable provides the second signal: Clive Cox has had 7 winners from 28 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. Rossa Ryan rides the two-year-old at 8st 13lb in the Dubai Racing Club Nursery Handicap over seven furlongs, and Silver Sovereign is rated 98, a pound behind National Honour on 99.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Friday 9 October, and their picks today. Computeform and Ratings Hub tie for third:
- Mercury (Daily Post): 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: Rock Montreal, 14:25 Newmarket.
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: Got A Dream, 16:35 Chepstow.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Sacre Chef, 13:35 Chepstow.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Drumbeat, 13:50 Newmarket.
Naval Tribute and Mountain Road are the most-napped horses of the day, with four naps each, both in the Cesarewitch at 15:40 Newmarket. Naval Tribute is today’s list topper. Naps are Mountain Road’s only signal and its price has not moved from 10/1, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning that are not on the Hot List all miss out because none has a second signal:
- Stoneacre Donny (14:05 York): 20/1 to 15/2, a 60% move.
- Percy Shelley (15:40 Newmarket): 80/1 to 33/1, a 58% move.
- Pellitory (15:17 York): 9/1 to 4/1, a 50% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Friday’s Hot List had six runners and one of them won. Saint Jeannais (5/6) won the second division of the Wasdell Group Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow, leading narrowly at the last and keeping on. Gaspacho (6/1) was third at York, outpaced from over a furlong out, and Tolstoy (4/1) ran on late to be third in the apprentice handicap there. Spyce (8/1) was fourth in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket after being held up in rear, while Into The Light (22/1) was seventh, weakening over two furlongs out. Cosmic Connection (15/8) was ninth in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow, weakening after the second-last. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £1.83 from £6 staked, a loss of £4.17. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:25 BST on Saturday 10 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 26 September to 9 October.
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