The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Into The Light in the 15:30 at Newmarket, the biggest market move among six qualifiers. The price has shortened from 33/1 to 16/1 with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and Charlie Appleby’s stable has 7 winners from 22 runners over the past fortnight. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Six runners qualify today. Computeform and Ratings Hub finished level on strike rate for the third top-three nap place over the past 28 days, so both count as top-three tipsters, and Saint Jeannais qualifies on that basis.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Into The Light | 15:30 Newmarket | Backed / Trainer | 33/1 to 16/1 · Appleby 7 winners from 22 in 14 days |
| 2 | Cosmic Connection | 15:43 Chepstow | Backed / Napped | 3/1 to 5/4 · 2 naps |
| 3 | Spyce | 15:30 Newmarket | Backed / Napped | 12/1 to 7/1 · 4 naps |
| 4 | Gaspacho | 14:40 York | Backed / Napped | 7/1 to 4/1 · 3 naps |
| 5 | Tolstoy | 17:00 York | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 15/2 · 3 wins from 7 at course |
| 6 | Saint Jeannais | 13:57 Chepstow | Napped / Trainer | Computeform nap · Twiston-Davies 8 winners from 16 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Into The Light:
“Into The Light tops the list on market support and the stable’s form. Going from 33/1 to 16/1 is a big move, and Charlie Appleby has had seven winners from 22 in the past fortnight, so I can see why it’s there. I’d want a bit more than that, though. The form figures end in a 9, and it’s rated 111, a pound behind Spyce, who has four naps and has been backed from 12/1 to 7/1 in the same race. At 16/1 it’s one to consider on price, but I’d rate Spyce the more likely of the two.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Into The Light · 15:30 Newmarket
Into The Light has been backed from 33/1 to 16/1 for the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap, a Heritage Handicap over a mile and a half, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Charlie Appleby trains the three-year-old, and his stable has had 7 winners from 22 runners over the past 14 days, a 32% strike rate. Toby Moore rides at 9st 4lb and Into The Light is rated 111.
2. Cosmic Connection · 15:43 Chepstow
Cosmic Connection has been cut from 3/1 to 5/4 for the Grade 2 DragonBet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by Spotlight in the Racing Post and talkSPORT 2 at talkSPORT. The five-year-old has won one of two starts at Chepstow, carries 11st 0lb and is rated 151, a pound behind Lord Byron on 152. Chris Gordon trains and Freddie Gordon rides.
3. Spyce · 15:30 Newmarket
The second qualifier from the Old Rowley Cup. Spyce has four naps, from racing-daily.com, Rob Wright in The Times, Jason Heavey in The Star and Ben Morgan at Racing Ahead, and the price has shortened from 12/1 to 7/1, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Alan King trains the three-year-old, who shares the top rating of 112 with Devil’s Peak, and Rossa Ryan rides at 9st 5lb.
4. Gaspacho · 14:40 York
Gaspacho is napped by The Punt and On The Nose in the Racing Post and by the Sunday Express, and has been backed from 7/1 to 4/1 for the William Hill Finale Handicap, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting. William Haggas trains the three-year-old, who is rated 104, and Joanna Mason rides at 8st 7lb.
5. Tolstoy · 17:00 York
Tolstoy has been cut from 12/1 to 15/2 for the PJ Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap, with 14 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won three of seven starts at York. RP Ratings in the Racing Post also makes the seven-year-old their nap. Tolstoy is the top-rated runner in a field of 22 on 92. Brian Ellison trains and apprentice Mason Paetel rides at 9st 4lb.
6. Saint Jeannais · 13:57 Chepstow
The only qualifier without a market signal. Saint Jeannais has shortened from 11/8 to 5/6 for the second division of the Wasdell Group Novices’ Hurdle, with 12 of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed, and is the nap of Computeform at The Racing App, which has found 10 winners from its last 28 naps. The stable provides the second signal: Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies have had 8 winners from 16 runners over the past 14 days, a 50% strike rate. Sam Twiston-Davies rides the six-year-old at 11st 7lb, and Saint Jeannais is rated 123, second only to Dutch Corner on 125.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Thursday 8 October, and their picks today. Computeform and Ratings Hub tie for third:
- Mercury (Daily Post): 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: Beagle Bay, 13:30 York.
- BGTips.co.uk: 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Sharadd, 15:18 York.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Saint Jeannais, 13:57 Chepstow.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Euro Agent, 14:13 Downpatrick.
The most-napped horse of the day is Flora Of Bermuda in the Challenge Stakes at 14:25 Newmarket, with five naps. Naps are its only signal and the price has drifted from 13/8 to 15/8, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Furturra (15:50 York): 14/1 to 10/3, a 71% move.
- Baltic Fleet (14:40 York): 30/1 to 12/1, a 59% move.
- Sweltering (13:50 Newmarket): 14/1 to 11/2, a 57% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Thursday’s Hot List had eight runners and four of them won. Port Glen One (8/11) made all at Market Rasen and went clear inside the final 110 yards to win comfortably, with Downtown Nashville (7/2) second, beaten three lengths. Brilliant Star (11/8) won the Listed Beckford Stakes at Bath, while Albus Anne (9/2) and Sweet Horizon (3/1) were both ridden to lead inside the final 110 yards in their Bath handicaps. Parisiac (100/30) was sixth at Ayr, Kaito (6/5) sixth at Southwell and Nordic Glory (28/1) tenth at Bath. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £13.60 from £8 staked, a profit of £5.60. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:37 BST on Friday 9 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 25 September to 8 October.
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