The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Port Glen One in the 14:31 at Market Rasen, the only runner to hit three signals. The price has shortened from 7/4 to 4/6 with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the Twiston-Davies stable has 8 winners from 15 runners over the past fortnight, and Sam Twiston-Davies has a 23% strike rate at the track.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Eight runners qualify today. Computeform and Ratings Hub finished level on strike rate for the third top-three nap place over the past 28 days, so both count as top-three tipsters.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Glen One | 14:31 Market Rasen | Backed / Trainer / Jockey | 7/4 to 4/6 · Twiston-Davies 8 from 15 · S Twiston-Davies 23% from 321 rides at track |
| 2 | Kaito | 18:00 Southwell | Backed / Napped | 10/3 to 11/8 · Computeform nap |
| 3 | Downtown Nashville | 14:31 Market Rasen | Backed / Jockey | 13/2 to 10/3 · Bowen 23% from 344 rides at track |
| 4 | Nordic Glory | 14:40 Bath | Backed / Course | 16/1 to 10/1 · 2 wins from 8 at course |
| 5 | Albus Anne | 16:21 Bath | Backed / Course | 9/2 to 11/4 · 5 wins from 9 at course |
| 6 | Sweet Horizon | 16:55 Bath | Backed / Trainer | 11/2 to 7/2 · Clover 6 winners from 16 in 14 days |
| 7 | Parisiac | 15:30 Ayr | Napped / Course | 2 naps · 2 wins from 7 at course |
| 8 | Brilliant Star | 15:15 Bath | Napped / Trainer | 7 naps · Gosden 11 winners from 33 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Port Glen One:
“Port Glen One deserves to head the list. Three signals in a four-runner novice hurdle is a strong start, and a move from 7/4 to 4/6 doesn’t happen by accident. The Twiston-Davies stable is in cracking form, with eight winners from 15 runners in the past fortnight, and Sam has a good record round Market Rasen. My hesitation is the price rather than the horse. There’s no official rating to judge it by in our data, and at 4/6 most of the value has gone, so I’d respect it without rushing to take odds-on.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Port Glen One · 14:31 Market Rasen
The only runner on three signals. Port Glen One has been backed from 7/4 to 4/6 for the Tractor Drivers Go Free On 12th November Novices’ Hurdle, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, in a race with only four declared runners. Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies have sent out 8 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days, and Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 73 winners from 321 rides at Market Rasen, a 23% strike rate. Luke Tucker in the Cambridge Evening News also makes the five-year-old his nap, and Port Glen One carries 11st 0lb.
2. Kaito · 18:00 Southwell
Kaito has been cut from 10/3 to 11/8 for the first division of the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap, with 18 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and is the nap of Computeform at The Racing App, which has found 11 winners from its last 28 naps. George Boughey trains the two-year-old and Jack Callan rides at 9st 9lb.
3. Downtown Nashville · 14:31 Market Rasen
Downtown Nashville is the second qualifier from Market Rasen’s 14:31, shortened from 13/2 to 10/3, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The jockey booking is the other signal: Sean Bowen has ridden 79 winners from 344 rides at the track, a 23% strike rate. Olly Murphy trains the four-year-old, rated 108, which carries 10st 12lb.
4. Nordic Glory · 14:40 Bath
Nordic Glory has come in from 16/1 to 10/1 for the MDA Consulting Ltd Handicap, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of eight starts at Bath. Michael Attwater trains the seven-year-old and Owen Lewis rides at 9st 1lb.
5. Albus Anne · 16:21 Bath
Albus Anne has been backed from 9/2 to 11/4 for the first division of the Find My Hospitality Handicap, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won five of nine starts at Bath, the best course record on the list. Jimmy Fox trains the seven-year-old, the top-rated runner in the field on 84, and Olivia Haines rides at 9st 6lb.
6. Sweet Horizon · 16:55 Bath
Sweet Horizon has shortened from 11/2 to 7/2 for the second division of the Find My Hospitality Handicap, with 17 of 24 bookmakers cutting. The other signal is the stable: Tom Clover has had 6 winners from 16 runners over the past 14 days, a 38% strike rate. Jack Mitchell rides the three-year-old at 9st 6lb.
7. Parisiac · 15:30 Ayr
Parisiac is napped by The Judge at The Favourite and Glendale in The Scotsman, and has won two of seven starts at Ayr. The price has also come in from 11/2 to around 7/2 for the Tennent’s Lager Handicap, just short of the 30% market threshold, with 13 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Iain Jardine trains the seven-year-old and Jack Nicholls rides at 9st 2lb on heavy, soft in places ground.
8. Brilliant Star · 15:15 Bath
The most-napped horse of the day. Brilliant Star has seven naps, from Newsboy in the Daily Mirror, Ian Gaughran of the Irish Herald, the Mirror Online, Sam Hardy in the Weekender, Lee Sobot of the Yorkshire Evening Post, The Duke in the Yorkshire Post and The Brigadier at punterslounge.com. John and Thady Gosden have had 11 winners from 33 runners over the past 14 days, and Robert Havlin rides the three-year-old at 9st 0lb in the Listed Beckford Stakes, where it shares the top rating of 111 with Lady Vivian. The price has barely moved, from 7/4 to 6/4, so it misses on market support.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Wednesday 7 October, and their picks today. Computeform and Ratings Hub tie for third:
- Mercury (Daily Post): 15 winners from 28 naps (54%). Today: Cisco Disco, 16:05 Ayr.
- BGTips.co.uk: 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Thickthorn Tom, 15:41 Market Rasen.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Kaito, 18:00 Southwell.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Whitewinewednesday, 15:06 Market Rasen.
The most-napped horse of the day is Brilliant Star in the Beckford Stakes at 15:15 Bath, with seven naps. The price has barely moved, but a strong trainer record gives it a second signal and it makes the list at No. 8. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Dontcavein (16:30 Tramore): 12/1 to 11/4, a 71% move.
- Arlecchino’s Moon (18:00 Southwell): 16/1 to 6/1, a 59% move.
- Quick Of The Night (16:16 Market Rasen): 11/1 to 9/2, a 54% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Wednesday’s Hot List had three runners and two of them won. Popalot (18/1) was tailed off in sixth at Sedgefield, beaten 23 lengths by the 22/1 winner Mia Sunshine. Rosato (7/2) went clear inside the final furlong at Navan to win readily. Royal County Glory (5/6) got up late at Kempton to beat Credit Forgedd It by a neck. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £6.33 from £3 staked, a profit of £3.33. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 09:34 BST on Thursday 8 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 24 September to 7 October.
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