The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Popalot in the 13:50 at Sedgefield, one of only three runners to qualify. The price has shortened from 25/1 to 16/1 with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting it, and Brian Hughes has a 22% strike rate at the track.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Three runners qualify today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Popalot | 13:50 Sedgefield | Backed / Jockey | 25/1 to 16/1 · Hughes 22% from 1,068 rides at track |
| 2 | Rosato | 15:15 Navan | Napped / Course | 2 naps · 2 wins from 3 at course |
| 3 | Royal County Glory | 19:00 Kempton | Napped / Jockey | BGTips nap · Murphy 19% from 1,420 rides at track |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Popalot:
“Popalot is the one that makes me look twice. A maiden hurdle is hard enough to read, and a horse going from 25/1 to 16/1 with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting it isn’t doing that by accident. Brian Hughes has a 22% strike rate at Sedgefield from more than 1,000 rides, so the booking is a decent second signal. My caution is that two signals still don’t make it the likeliest winner, and 16/1 is a big price for a reason. At the 20/1 still available with bet365 and Betway I’d be interested, but I wouldn’t want much less.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Popalot · 13:50 Sedgefield
The biggest market mover on the list. Popalot has been backed from 25/1 to 16/1 for the Mowden Park RFC Maiden Hurdle, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The jockey booking is the second signal: Brian Hughes has ridden 234 winners from 1,068 rides at Sedgefield, a 22% strike rate. Peter Niven trains the five-year-old, who runs off 11st 4lb. The best price is 20/1 with bet365 and Betway.
2. Rosato · 15:15 Navan
Rosato is napped by The Irish Sun and talkSPORT 2 at talkSPORT, and has won two of three starts at Navan. Charles Weld trains the five-year-old and Rory Mulligan rides at 9st 12lb. The price has come in from 23/4 to 9/2 for the Navan Racecourse handicap, a smaller move than the market signal needs. William Hill, BoyleSports and Paddy Power offer 5/1.
3. Royal County Glory · 19:00 Kempton
Royal County Glory is the nap of BGTips.co.uk, one of the three best nap records over the past 28 days, and has Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Murphy has ridden 263 winners from 1,420 rides at Kempton, a 19% strike rate. Jack Jones trains the three-year-old, who carries 9st 9lb in the Smartview Racecards Handicap. The price has edged in from 2/1 to 7/4, and bet365, William Hill and Betway are among seven bookmakers offering 15/8.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the three nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Tuesday 6 October, and their picks today:
- Mercury (Daily Post): 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: Brookside La, 16:35 Worcester.
- BGTips.co.uk: 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Royal County Glory, 19:00 Kempton.
- Ratings Hub (At The Races): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Alpinara, 18:30 Kempton.
No horse stands out as the most-napped today: seven runners have two naps each, including Rosato, Brookside La and Alpinara. Brookside La and Alpinara both miss the list because their prices have drifted since the market opened, which rules them out. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Treasure Time (15:29 Nottingham): 20/1 to 7/1, a 62% move.
- Karnaval Point (13:05 Worcester): 11/1 to 4/1, a 58% move.
- Destiny Calls (13:45 Navan): 33/1 to 14/1, a 56% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
There was no Hot List on Tuesday, so here is how Monday’s list got on. Mister Sox (4/1) won the Autism In Racing Handicap at Pontefract, led inside the final 110 yards and held on well. List topper Fiscal Policy (3/1) in the same race weakened late to finish seventh. Mount King (7/2) was second in the 16:21 Pontefract, Gorgeous Mr George (6/1) sixth at Yarmouth and French Affair (4/1) third, beaten a head, at Kempton. Padua (11/1) was tenth at Wolverhampton. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £5 from £6 staked, a £1 loss. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:30 BST on Wednesday 7 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 23 September to 6 October.
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