The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Fiscal Policy in the 14:40 at Pontefract, the only runner to hit three signals. The price has shortened from 9/2 to 5/2, there are two naps, and Fiscal Policy has won three of five starts at Pontefract.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Six runners qualify today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fiscal Policy | 14:40 Pontefract | Backed / Napped / Course | 9/2 to 5/2 · 2 naps · 3 wins from 5 at course |
| 2 | Padua | 20:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Napped | 22/1 to 8/1 · 2 naps |
| 3 | Gorgeous Mr George | 16:40 Yarmouth | Backed / Course | 16/1 to 13/2 · 5 wins from 13 at course |
| 4 | Mount King | 16:21 Pontefract | Backed / Course | 10/1 to 5/1 · 4 wins from 15 at course |
| 5 | Mister Sox | 14:40 Pontefract | Backed / Napped | 15/2 to 4/1 · 3 naps |
| 6 | French Affair | 18:45 Kempton | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Candlish 5 winners from 19 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Fiscal Policy:
“Fiscal Policy deserves to be top of the list. Three wins from five starts at Pontefract tells you the track suits, and with 20 of 21 bookmakers cutting it, the market agrees. What complicates things is Mister Sox in the same race, backed from 15/2 to 4/1 with three naps of its own, so this isn’t a one-horse market. My issue is the price rather than the horse. Most of the value went when it came in from 9/2, and after a fourth last time I’d want a bit more than 5/2, so the 3/1 with William Hill is the least I’d take.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Fiscal Policy · 14:40 Pontefract
The only runner on three signals. Fiscal Policy has been backed from 9/2 to 5/2 for the Autism In Racing Handicap over six furlongs, with 20 of the 21 bookmakers who priced it early cutting. Ian Gaughran in the Irish Herald and talkSPORT 2 both make the seven-year-old their nap, and Fiscal Policy has won three of five starts at Pontefract. Ruth Carr trains and James Sullivan rides at 9st 9lb. The best price is 3/1 with William Hill.
2. Padua · 20:30 Wolverhampton
The biggest market move on the list. Padua has been cut from 22/1 to 8/1 for the Race & Rest – Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap, with all 21 bookmakers who priced it early cutting by at least 20%. Stephen Darbyshire at Races Now and Marlborough in the Daily Telegraph both nap the four-year-old. Hughie Morrison trains and Rob Hornby rides at 9st 5lb. Powder Monkey also has two naps in this race but misses the list because its price has drifted from 2/1 to 9/4. bet365 and Paddy Power offer 10/1.
3. Gorgeous Mr George · 16:40 Yarmouth
Gorgeous Mr George has shortened from 16/1 to 13/2 for the Moulton Racing Club Handicap, with 20 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and has won five of 13 starts at Yarmouth. Dylan Cunha trains the four-year-old, and Taryn Langley rides at 10st. Sky Bet offer 8/1.
4. Mount King · 16:21 Pontefract
Mount King has been backed from 10/1 to 5/1 for the Good Biscuit – Ponte Premiership Champion Handicap, with all 20 bookmakers who priced it early cutting. The six-year-old has won four of 15 starts at Pontefract. Tim Easterby trains and David Allan rides at 9st 1lb. bet365 offer 11/2.
5. Mister Sox · 14:40 Pontefract
Mister Sox is the second qualifier from Pontefract’s 2.40, backed from 15/2 to 4/1. Its three naps are the joint-most of any runner today: one from GG’s own Andrew Mount in the Racing & Football Outlook, plus Kieran McHugh in the Norwich Evening News and Dean Kilbryde in the East Anglian Daily Times. Tim Easterby trains the six-year-old, and Sean Kirrane rides at 9st 7lb. BoyleSports and William Hill offer 9/2.
6. French Affair · 18:45 Kempton
The only runner on the list without a qualifying market move. French Affair is napped by sportinglife.com and The Judge at The Favourite, and Jennie Candlish has had five winners from 19 runners over the past 14 days, a 26% strike rate. David Egan rides the three-year-old at 9st 11lb in the second division of the Try Unibet’s New Smartview Racecards Handicap over six furlongs. The price has edged in from 4/1 to 3/1, which every bookmaker offers.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the three nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Sunday 4 October, and their picks today:
- Mercury (Daily Post): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: State Pension, 14:30 Fairyhouse.
- Ratings Hub (At The Races): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Noble Grace, 16:56 Pontefract.
- BGTips.co.uk: 11 winners from 27 naps (41%). Today: Narrjoo, 13:30 Pontefract.
None of the three picks makes the Hot List, as each has the naps signal only. The most-napped horses of the day are Mister Sox, on the list at number five, and Stormy Impact in the 15:50 at Pontefract, with three naps each, including from Newsboy in the Daily Mirror and The North in the Racing Post. Stormy Impact’s price has not moved from 4/1, so naps are its only signal and it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Brighton Boy (15:50 Pontefract): 14/1 to 5/1, a 60% move.
- Back Straight (15:20 Killarney): 25/1 to 10/1, a 58% move.
- Sergeant Wilko (15:50 Pontefract): 16/1 to 13/2, a 56% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How Friday’s Hot List did
Friday’s Hot List had nine runners and two winners. Blazing Son (7/2) made all at Newcastle, and Shimmering Sun (3/1) hit the front over a furlong out to win the Listed Legacy Stakes at Dundalk. Hilltop (3/1) ran on for second at Wolverhampton, list topper Nolton Cross (7/2) led over two furlongs out but was headed and finished third, and Princling (9/4) was third at Ascot after repeatedly being denied a clear run. Izzari (11/10) was fourth, Far Above Dream (100/30) fifth, Ballydangan (12/1) seventh after a mistake at the 13th, and Ironwill (9/2) ninth. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £8.50 for a £9 outlay, a 50p loss. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 09:00 BST on Monday 5 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 21 September to 4 October.
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