The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is The Hardest Geezer in the 14:25 at Cheltenham, the biggest market move among six qualifiers. The price has shortened from 7/1 to 10/3 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and it is napped by Dave Nevison at Racing TV and Ben Morgan at Racing Ahead. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Six runners qualify today. Jeffrey Ross, Computeform and Mercury finished level on strike rate behind BGTips.co.uk over the past 28 days, so all three count as top-three tipsters, although none of their picks makes the list today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Hardest Geezer | 14:25 Cheltenham | Backed / Napped | 7/1 to 10/3 · 2 naps |
| 2 | Eclairage | 19:15 Dundalk | Backed / Course | 33/1 to 18/1 · 4 wins from 8 at course |
| 3 | Traprain Law | 15:35 Cheltenham | Backed / Trainer | 7/1 to 4/1 · Russell 7 winners from 27 in 14 days |
| 4 | Intervention | 18:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Trainer | 10/3 to 7/4 · Appleby 6 winners from 22 in 14 days |
| 5 | Fine Interview | 14:10 Doncaster | Napped / Course | 2 naps · 3 wins from 5 at course |
| 6 | Handlethekettle | 13:15 Cheltenham | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Snowden 5 winners from 18 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, The Hardest Geezer:
“The Hardest Geezer tops the list on the market and two naps, and going from 7/1 to 10/3 with 20 of 23 firms cutting is a strong show of confidence. The form figures read 2244S, though, so it hasn’t won in its last five runs, and Wondering Why, which won last time, is a pound higher on Racing Post Ratings and has two naps of its own. Kapitein Kool has been backed even harder in the same race, from 11/1 to 4/1, so the support isn’t all going one way. I can see why it’s on top, but at 10/3 most of the value has gone.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. The Hardest Geezer · 14:25 Cheltenham
The Hardest Geezer has been backed from 7/1 to 10/3 for the Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle over two miles, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. It is napped by Dave Nevison at Racing TV and Ben Morgan at Racing Ahead. Philip Hobbs and Johnson White train the seven-year-old, and conditional Jack Stenhouse rides at 11st 1lb. Its Racing Post Rating of 141 is a pound behind Wondering Why, the best in the field of 13 on 142.
2. Eclairage · 19:15 Dundalk
Eclairage has been cut from 33/1 to 18/1 for the Group 3 BAR 1 Betting Mercury Stakes over five furlongs, with 16 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won four of eight starts at Dundalk. Daniel James Murphy trains the four-year-old and James Ryan rides at 9st 11lb. Eclairage has a Racing Post Rating of 101, well below Washington Heights on 110 and Sir Les Patterson on 106 in a field of 13.
3. Traprain Law · 15:35 Cheltenham
Traprain Law has shortened from 7/1 to 4/1 for the squareintheair.com Handicap Chase over two miles, with 16 of 22 bookmakers cutting. The stable provides the second signal: Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore train the eight-year-old, and Russell’s horses have had 7 winners from 27 runners over the past 14 days, a 26% strike rate. Amateur Lucas Murphy rides at 10st 3lb, and Traprain Law shares the top Racing Post Rating of 163 with Calico, the most-napped horse of the day.
4. Intervention · 18:30 Wolverhampton
Intervention has been backed from 10/3 to 7/4 for the Make The Move To Midnite Handicap over six furlongs, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Michael Appleby’s stable has had 6 winners from 22 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. The nine-year-old has won six of 31 starts at Wolverhampton, carries 9st 0lb under Harry Davies, and has the top Racing Post Rating in the eight-runner field on 84.
5. Fine Interview · 14:10 Doncaster
One of two qualifiers without a market signal. Fine Interview has shortened from 9/2 to 7/2 for the William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap over six furlongs, with 8 of 23 bookmakers cutting, short of the move needed, and is napped by Marlborough in the Daily Telegraph and The Brigadier at punterslounge.com. Course form provides the second signal: the five-year-old has won three of five starts at Doncaster. Hamad Al Jehani trains and James Doyle rides at 9st 5lb. Fine Interview has a Racing Post Rating of 111, behind Advertised on 115 and City Captain on 114 in a field of 16.
6. Handlethekettle · 13:15 Cheltenham
The other qualifier without a market signal. Handlethekettle is unchanged at 10/1 for the William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Hurdle over two miles and three furlongs, with no bookmaker cutting, and is the nap of Lambourn in the Racing Post and Ratings Hub at attheraces.com. The stable provides the second signal: Jamie Snowden has had 5 winners from 18 runners over the past 14 days, a 28% strike rate. Gavin Sheehan rides the seven-year-old at 10st 10lb in a field of 13 headed on Racing Post Ratings by Norman Fletcher on 146 and Crooked Path on 145.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Thursday 22 October, and their picks today. Jeffrey Ross, Computeform and Mercury tie for second, so all three count:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: Ice Jet, 13:50 Cheltenham.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Wishful Thinker, 17:30 Wolverhampton.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Bulletsnap, 13:35 Doncaster.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Cooltobecareless, 15:00 Cheltenham.
The most-napped horse of the day is Calico in the squareintheair.com Handicap Chase at 15:35 Cheltenham, with four naps, from Templegate in The Sun, The Judge at The Favourite, Ian Gaughran in the Irish Herald and Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail. It would qualify on naps and on two wins from eight starts at Cheltenham, but the price has drifted from 10/3 to 9/2, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Grennanstown Lady (14:35 Sligo): 33/1 to 11/1, a 65% move.
- Kapitein Kool (14:25 Cheltenham): 11/1 to 4/1, a 60% move.
- City Captain (14:10 Doncaster): 18/1 to 15/2, a 55% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Thursday’s Hot List had ten runners and one of them won. Gustapof (5/2) made all at Ffos Las, opened up a big lead with a circuit to go and was always doing enough despite weakening on the run-in. Volez Vous (4/1) led after three out at Clonmel and rallied to finish third, and Diamond Blue Point (4/1) weakened inside the final furlong to finish third at Southwell. List topper Rickety Gate (7/2) disputed the lead before weakening into fourth at Carlisle, where Dare To Shout (100/30) was fifth of five. Irish Nectar (4/9) was sixth at Newmarket after a slow start, and the trainer reported the gelding ran flat. Mythical Guest (13/2) was seventh at Newmarket, Legendary Luke (3/1) last of seven at Ffos Las, It’sneverjustone (5/1) seventh at Southwell after meeting trouble in running and Papa Cocktail (5/1) eighth at Southwell. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £3.50 from £10 staked, a loss of £6.50. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 09:06 BST on Friday 23 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 9 October to 22 October.
18+ | BeGambleAware.org