The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Rickety Gate in the 15:02 at Carlisle, the biggest market move among four runners with three signals. The price has shortened from 17/2 to 5/1 with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, Rickety Gate has won two of seven starts at Carlisle, and Danny McMenamin has 41 winners from 221 rides at the course.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Twelve runners qualify today, so the cap applies: La Note Verte and Bel Amigo both have two signals but the smallest market moves of the twelve, and miss out.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rickety Gate | 15:02 Carlisle | Backed / Course / Jockey | 17/2 to 5/1 · 2 wins from 7 at course · McMenamin 41 winners from 221 rides at course |
| 2 | Diamond Blue Point | 19:00 Southwell | Backed / Trainer / Jockey | 11/2 to 10/3 · Boughey 7 winners from 28 in 14 days · Crouch 52 winners from 234 rides at course |
| 3 | Legendary Luke | 15:46 Ffos Las | Backed / Trainer / Jockey | 9/2 to 11/4 · Snowden 5 winners from 17 in 14 days · Sheehan 43 winners from 183 rides at course |
| 4 | Dare To Shout | 14:27 Carlisle | Napped / Course / Jockey | 2 naps · 2 wins from 2 at course · McMenamin 41 winners from 221 rides at course |
| 5 | Gustapof | 16:20 Ffos Las | Backed / Jockey | 7/1 to 9/4 · Bowen 101 winners from 498 rides at course |
| 6 | Volez Vous | 14:10 Clonmel | Backed / Course | 16/1 to 8/1 · 2 wins from 5 at course |
| 7 | Mythical Guest | 14:55 Newmarket | Backed / Napped | 12/1 to 6/1 · 2 naps |
| 8 | It’sneverjustone | 18:30 Southwell | Backed / Jockey | 11/1 to 6/1 · Crouch 52 winners from 234 rides at course |
| 9 | Papa Cocktail | 20:30 Southwell | Backed / Trainer | 12/1 to 8/1 · Herrington 4 winners from 15 in 14 days |
| 10 | Irish Nectar | 16:40 Newmarket | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Herrington 4 winners from 15 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Rickety Gate:
“Rickety Gate is one of four runners with three signals today and tops the list on the size of the move, from 17/2 to 5/1, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. It’s won two of its seven starts at Carlisle and Danny McMenamin rides the track well, so the support makes some sense. I’d want to see more from the recent form, though. It’s an 11-year-old, the last two runs read 7-7, and Coventry and Gonnino are both rated higher in this handicap. It has a chance on its course record, but at 5/1 most of the value has already gone.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Rickety Gate · 15:02 Carlisle
Rickety Gate has been backed from 17/2 to 5/1 for the first division of the Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle, over just under two and a half miles, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The 11-year-old has won two of seven starts at Carlisle, and Danny McMenamin has ridden 41 winners from 221 rides at the course, a 19% strike rate. Nicky Richards trains, and Rickety Gate carries 10st 11lb off a rating of 103, behind Coventry on 105 and Gonnino on 104.
2. Diamond Blue Point · 19:00 Southwell
Diamond Blue Point has been cut from 11/2 to 10/3 for the AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes over six furlongs, with 18 of 24 bookmakers cutting. George Boughey has had 7 winners from 28 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate, and Hector Crouch has 52 winners from 234 rides at Southwell, 22%. The two-year-old is unrated and carries 9st 2lb in a field of eight that includes Silesia, the top-rated runner on 97 and the nap of Jeffrey Ross.
3. Legendary Luke · 15:46 Ffos Las
Legendary Luke has been backed from 9/2 to 11/4 for the bettingsites.co.uk Fast Paying Bookmakers Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase over almost three miles, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and is also napped by Lambourn in the Racing Post. Jamie Snowden has had 5 winners from 17 runners over the past 14 days, a 29% strike rate, and Gavin Sheehan has 43 winners from 183 rides at Ffos Las, 23%. The six-year-old won on its only previous visit to the course and carries 11st 7lb in a field of seven.
4. Dare To Shout · 14:27 Carlisle
The only three-signal runner without a market signal. Dare To Shout is napped by The Judge at The Favourite and Spotlight in the Racing Post, and has won both previous starts at Carlisle. The price has shortened from 7/2 to 9/4 for the Magnet, Better. By Design Handicap Chase over three miles, with 13 of 23 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed. Danny McMenamin rides for Ann Hamilton, and the nine-year-old shares the top rating of 138 with Sir Carnegie in a field of five, carrying 11st 6lb.
5. Gustapof · 16:20 Ffos Las
Gustapof has the biggest market move on the list, from 7/1 to 9/4 for the bettingsites.co.uk Quickest Withdrawal Bookies Handicap Chase, with 23 of 24 bookmakers cutting. The second signal is the jockey: Sean Bowen has 101 winners from 498 rides at Ffos Las, a 20% strike rate. Rebecca Curtis trains the five-year-old, who carries 11st 7lb off a rating of 104 in a field of nine headed by Owl Of Athens on 112.
6. Volez Vous · 14:10 Clonmel
Volez Vous has been backed from 16/1 to 8/1 for the Kilclooney Woods (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of five starts at Clonmel. P J Rothwell trains the seven-year-old, who is ridden by amateur Miss P Elvin at 10st 10lb. Volez Vous is rated 96 in a field of 19 headed by Kelly’s Cosmos on 106.
7. Mythical Guest · 14:55 Newmarket
Mythical Guest is napped by Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail and Ian Gaughran in the Irish Herald, and has been backed from 12/1 to 6/1 for the CopyBet Pay First Past The Post Handicap over a mile and a quarter on soft ground, with 21 of 22 bookmakers cutting. George Margarson trains the six-year-old, who is rated 89, three pounds behind Princess Rascal, and Saffie Osborne rides at 9st 9lb.
8. It’sneverjustone · 18:30 Southwell
It’sneverjustone has been cut from 11/1 to 6/1 for the AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap over a mile, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Hector Crouch, who also rides Diamond Blue Point, provides the second signal with 52 winners from 234 rides at Southwell. David Loughnane trains the four-year-old, who carries 9st 8lb off a rating of 83.
9. Papa Cocktail · 20:30 Southwell
Papa Cocktail has been backed from 12/1 to 8/1 for the second division of the Make The Move To Midnite Handicap over six furlongs, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Michael Herrington has had 4 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. Jason Hart rides the seven-year-old at 9st 12lb, and Papa Cocktail is rated 87, two pounds behind French Affair.
10. Irish Nectar · 16:40 Newmarket
The only qualifier without a market signal. Irish Nectar is napped by Newsboy in the Daily Mirror and Andrew Mount in the Racing & Football Outlook, and has shortened from 6/5 to 5/6 for the CopyBet BOG Now For Cheltenham Tomorrow Handicap over five furlongs, but only one bookmaker has cut by 20%. The stable provides the second signal: Michael Herrington, who also trains Papa Cocktail, has had 4 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days. Dylan Hogan rides the five-year-old at 10st 1lb, and Irish Nectar is the top-rated runner on 84.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Wednesday 21 October, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: La Note Verte, 15:56 Clonmel.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Silesia, 19:00 Southwell.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Fairy Park, 12:51 Ffos Las.
The most-napped horse of the day is La Note Verte in the Suir Blueway Mares Chase at 15:56 Clonmel, with five naps. It qualifies on naps and on Paul Townend’s record of 54 winners from 226 rides at the course. The price has shortened only from 1/5 to 1/20, a smaller move than the tenth-placed Irish Nectar’s, so it misses the ten-runner cut. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- State Emperor (13:10 Newmarket): 10/1 to 3/1, a 64% move.
- Grange Walk (16:30 Clonmel): 20/1 to 15/2, a 60% move.
- Cameley Days (16:40 Newmarket): 16/1 to 13/2, a 56% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Wednesday’s Hot List had seven runners. Ridger was withdrawn at Kempton on a vet’s certificate, and none of the other six won. Al Lahbab (100/30) came closest, beaten a neck by Muqarrabin at Newmarket after a sustained duel through the final furlong. Kelijoe (15/8) led until two out and finished third at Worcester, and Liosa (12/1) led narrowly inside the final furlong at Kempton before being headed and finishing third. Level Look (3/1) and Intangible Truth (11/1) were both fourth at Kempton, and He’s A Latchico (12/1) was fifth of seven at Fontwell. A £1 win bet on each of the six runners at starting price returned nothing from £6 staked, a loss of £6. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 09:43 BST on Thursday 22 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 8 October to 21 October.
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