The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Kelijoe in the 13:10 at Worcester, the biggest market move among seven qualifiers. The price has shortened from 13/2 to 3/1 with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and Stuart Edmunds’ stable has 4 winners from 14 runners over the past fortnight. No runner reaches three signals today, and Oisin Murphy rides three of the seven at Kempton tonight.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Seven runners qualify today. Jeffrey Ross, Ratings Hub and Computeform finished level on strike rate for the third top-three nap place over the past 28 days, so all three count as top-three tipsters; it makes no difference to today’s list. Tread Carefully and Muqarrabin would have had three signals each, but both have drifted in the market, so they are left out.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelijoe | 13:10 Worcester | Backed / Trainer | 13/2 to 3/1 · Edmunds 4 winners from 14 in 14 days |
| 2 | Level Look | 19:00 Kempton | Backed / Jockey | 7/1 to 7/2 · Oisin Murphy 267 winners from 1,432 rides at course |
| 3 | Liosa | 19:30 Kempton | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 13/2 · 2 wins from 6 at course |
| 4 | Al Lahbab | 16:45 Newmarket | Backed / Trainer | 5/1 to 11/4 · Appleby 5 winners from 15 in 14 days |
| 5 | Intangible Truth | 17:30 Kempton | Backed / Jockey | 22/1 to 14/1 · Oisin Murphy 267 winners from 1,432 rides at course |
| 6 | He’s A Latchico | 15:42 Fontwell | Backed / Course | 10/1 to 13/2 · 3 wins from 6 at course |
| 7 | Ridger | 20:30 Kempton | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Oisin Murphy 267 winners from 1,432 rides at course |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Kelijoe:
“Kelijoe tops the list on market support and the stable’s form. Going from 13/2 to 3/1 is a proper move in a nine-runner handicap chase, and Stuart Edmunds has had four winners from 14 in the past fortnight, so I can see why it’s there. It’s joint top-rated on 128 with Imperial Bede and was second last time, so there’s a case on the figures as well. My worry is the price: at 3/1 a lot of the value has gone, and with a U in the form I’d want to see it jump cleanly before getting too keen.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Kelijoe · 13:10 Worcester
Kelijoe has been backed from 13/2 to 3/1 for the Fred & Mercy Rimell Memorial Handicap Chase, a Class 4 race over two miles and 110 yards, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Stuart Edmunds trains the six-year-old, and his stable has had 4 winners from 14 runners over the past 14 days, a 29% strike rate. Charlie Hammond rides at 11st 0lb. Kelijoe is joint top-rated on 128 with Imperial Bede and was second on its only previous run at Worcester.
2. Level Look · 19:00 Kempton
Level Look has been cut from 7/1 to 7/2 for the Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap, a London Stayers’ Series qualifier over 1m 7f 218y, with 17 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by Fortunatus in the Sheffield Star. Oisin Murphy rides, and he has won on 267 of his 1,432 rides at Kempton, an 18.6% strike rate. Andrew Balding trains the three-year-old, who carries 8st 13lb and is rated 107, two pounds below Synergism and Roaring Legend on 109.
3. Liosa · 19:30 Kempton
Liosa has shortened from 12/1 to 13/2 for the Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap, a London Sprint Series qualifier over six furlongs, with 20 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of six starts at Kempton. Zoe Hawkins trains the six-year-old and Jack Dace rides at 9st 6lb. Liosa is rated 85 in a race where Buccabay tops the ratings on 88.
4. Al Lahbab · 16:45 Newmarket
Al Lahbab has been backed from 5/1 to 11/4 for the British Stallion Studs EBF Future Stayers Novice Stakes over a mile, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Charlie Appleby trains the two-year-old, and his stable has had 5 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days, a 33% strike rate. Ryan Moore rides at 9st 4lb. Al Lahbab has no form figures, and Appleby also runs Muqarrabin in the five-runner field, a winner on its only start, rated 86 and napped by BGTips.co.uk.
5. Intangible Truth · 17:30 Kempton
Intangible Truth has been cut from 22/1 to 14/1 for the British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes over seven furlongs, with 21 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Oisin Murphy rides for Andrew Balding and has 267 winners from 1,432 rides at Kempton, an 18.6% strike rate. The two-year-old has form figures of 65, carries 9st 2lb and is rated 65, well below Daddy Star on 79.
6. He’s A Latchico · 15:42 Fontwell
He’s A Latchico has been backed from 10/1 to 13/2 for the We Love You Goodwin Handicap Hurdle over two miles and three furlongs, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won three of six starts at Fontwell. Jamie Moore & Josh Moore train the eight-year-old and Caoilin Quinn rides at 11st 1lb. He’s A Latchico is rated 129, three pounds below Motazzen and Fouroneohfever on 132, and Motazzen has won five of 11 starts here.
7. Ridger · 20:30 Kempton
The only qualifier without a market signal. Ridger has shortened from 2/1 to 11/8 for the Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap over seven furlongs, with 14 of 23 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed, and is napped by The Guardian and by Stephen Darbyshire at Races Now. The jockey provides the second signal: Oisin Murphy has 267 winners from 1,432 rides at Kempton. Ollie Sangster trains the three-year-old, who has won its last two races and won on its only previous start at Kempton, and carries 9st 5lb off a rating of 71.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Tuesday 20 October, and their picks today. Jeffrey Ross, Ratings Hub and Computeform tie for third:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: Muqarrabin, 16:45 Newmarket.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Aedhmar, 14:07 Navan.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Tread Carefully, 13:57 Fontwell.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Lots Road, 15:35 Newmarket.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Aedhmar, 14:07 Navan.
The most-napped horse of the day is Lots Road in the Future Stayers Nursery Handicap at 15:35 Newmarket, with four naps. The price has shortened from 6/4 to 11/10, not enough for a market signal, so naps are its only signal and it misses the list. Muqarrabin (4/7 to 8/13) and Tread Carefully (3/1 to 10/3) both have three signals but have drifted, so they miss out too. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Gaelic Saint (16:00 Worcester): 12/1 to 4/1, a 62% move.
- Sakowin (18:30 Kempton): 14/1 to 5/1, a 60% move.
- Emily’s Boy (13:32 Navan): 50/1 to 20/1, a 59% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Tuesday’s Hot List had one runner. Mayflower Rock (13/2) was sixth of eight in the 17:08 at Yarmouth, racing in touch and making brief headway two furlongs out before weakening in the final 110 yards. A £1 win bet at starting price returned nothing from £1 staked, a loss of £1. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 09:24 BST on Wednesday 21 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 7 October to 20 October.
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