The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Only one runner qualifies today: Mayflower Rock in the 17:08 at Yarmouth. The price has shortened from 20/1 to 12/1 with 15 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and Dylan Cunha’s stable has 5 winners from 20 runners over the past fortnight. The thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, so the list has a single runner.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. One runner qualifies today. Two others also reach two signals but miss out: The Good Wife has two naps and an in-form stable, but its price has drifted from 11/4 to 3/1, and Gorgeous Mr George has course and trainer form but neither market support nor naps, and its price has drifted too.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayflower Rock | 17:08 Yarmouth | Backed / Trainer | 20/1 to 12/1 · Cunha 5 winners from 20 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s only qualifier, Mayflower Rock:
“Mayflower Rock is the only one to make the list, and it’s there on the market more than the form. Going from 20/1 to 12/1 with 15 bookmakers cutting tells you someone fancies it, and Dylan Cunha’s yard has had five winners from 20 in the past fortnight. The form figures don’t back that up, though: it hasn’t finished better than fourth in its last three, and it’s yet to win in three runs at Yarmouth. It does get in at the bottom of the weights, but Koffee And Kale is rated five pounds higher and I’d still have that one as the one to beat.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Mayflower Rock · 17:08 Yarmouth
Mayflower Rock has been backed from 20/1 to 12/1 for the second division of the Brandford Restaurants & Bar Handicap, a Class 6 sprint over six furlongs on soft ground, with 15 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Dylan Cunha trains the three-year-old, and the stable has had 5 winners from 20 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. Saffie Osborne rides at 8st 6lb, bottom weight in a field of eight after the withdrawal of Snuggle, and Mayflower Rock is rated 71, five pounds below top-rated Koffee And Kale on 76. It has run three times at Yarmouth without winning, placing once.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Monday 19 October, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Royal Infantry, 16:17 Hexham.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Queen Of Scotland, 14:53 Yarmouth.
- Ian Gaughran (Irish Herald): 9 winners from 25 naps (36%). Today: The Good Wife, 15:00 Curragh.
The most-napped horse of the day is Maire Rua in the Staffordstown Stud Stakes at 15:00 Curragh, with five naps. It has been backed from 6/4 to 10/11, but that is a 24% move, short of the 30% needed, so naps are its only signal and it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal. Three are tied for second place, so all four are listed:
- Shosholoza (15:35 Curragh): 6/1 to 9/4, a 54% move.
- March Of Time (14:20 Yarmouth): 9/2 to 7/4, a 50% move.
- Le Grand Etoile (19:00 Newcastle): 10/1 to 9/2, a 50% move.
- Ellie’s de Vega (20:00 Newcastle): 11/2 to 9/4, a 50% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Monday’s Hot List had eight runners and four of them won. Bass Hunter (1/4) made all at Plumpton and won easily, and Ez Tiger (2/1) won a sustained duel on the run-in at the same meeting, leading on the post. Churchill Bond (4/7) went clear approaching the final furlong to win comfortably at Gowran Park, and Amazonica (5/1) led inside the final furlong at Southwell and just held on. List topper Stormy Winter (6/5) made the running at Wolverhampton but was headed inside the final furlong and finished second, beaten a length and a quarter. Chantelle (4/1) was third at Wolverhampton, Dowman (11/2) third at Southwell and Little Jaybee (3/1) fourth at Wolverhampton. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £11.82 from £8 staked, a profit of £3.82. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 10:55 BST on Tuesday 20 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 6 October to 19 October.
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