The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Stormy Winter in the 16:15 at Wolverhampton, one of two runners with three signals and ahead of Little Jaybee on the size of its market move. The price has shortened from 11/4 to 11/10 with 20 of 24 bookmakers cutting, it is napped by Computeform, and Oisin Murphy rides with 144 winners from 631 rides at the course. Eight runners qualify today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Eight runners qualify today. Mercury, Jeffrey Ross and Computeform finished level on strike rate for second place in the 28-day nap table, so all three count as top-three tipsters, and Stormy Winter’s nap signal counts on that basis.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stormy Winter | 16:15 Wolverhampton | Backed / Napped / Jockey | 11/4 to 11/10 · Computeform nap · Murphy 144 winners from 631 rides at Wolverhampton |
| 2 | Little Jaybee | 19:45 Wolverhampton | Backed / Course / Jockey | 6/1 to 3/1 · 2 wins from 5 at course · Murphy 144 winners from 631 rides at Wolverhampton |
| 3 | Amazonica | 20:00 Southwell | Backed / Trainer | 17/2 to 7/2 · Burrows 4 winners from 11 in 14 days |
| 4 | Chantelle | 17:15 Wolverhampton | Backed / Course | 8/1 to 4/1 · 2 wins from 3 at course |
| 5 | Dowman | 18:30 Southwell | Backed / Trainer | 7/1 to 4/1 · Boughey 5 winners from 18 in 14 days |
| 6 | Ez Tiger | 16:30 Plumpton | Backed / Course | 4/1 to 5/2 · 2 wins from 5 at course |
| 7 | Churchill Bond | 15:10 Gowran Park | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Twomey 4 winners from 11 in 14 days |
| 8 | Bass Hunter | 14:00 Plumpton | Napped / Jockey | 3 naps · Freddie Gordon 22 winners from 89 rides at Plumpton |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Stormy Winter:
“Stormy Winter tops the list because the market, a strong nap and the jockey all point the same way. Going from 11/4 to 11/10 with 20 of 24 bookmakers cutting is a firm move for a nursery, and Oisin Murphy’s record at Wolverhampton, 144 winners from 631 rides, speaks for itself. My reservation is the form. Figures of 455 from three runs don’t make it an obvious handicap blot, and it shares top weight on a mark of 63, eight pounds below Hoosier. Someone clearly expects it to improve on what it’s shown, but at 11/10 you’re taking that on trust, and I wouldn’t want to at that price.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Stormy Winter · 16:15 Wolverhampton
Stormy Winter has been backed from 11/4 to 11/10 for the first division of the Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap over seven furlongs, with 20 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and is the nap of Computeform at The Racing App, which has found 10 winners from its last 28 naps. Oisin Murphy rides, and he has 144 winners from 631 rides at Wolverhampton, a 23% strike rate. Saeed bin Suroor trains the two-year-old, who is rated 63 and shares top weight of 9st 9lb. Hoosier is the top-rated runner in the field of 12 on 71.
2. Little Jaybee · 19:45 Wolverhampton
Little Jaybee has been cut from 6/1 to 3/1 for the Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap over five furlongs, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of five starts at Wolverhampton. Oisin Murphy, who has 144 winners from 631 rides at the course, takes the ride for David Evans. The three-year-old carries 9st 5lb off a mark of 75, two pounds below top-rated Invincible Crown, and won two starts ago before finishing seventh last time.
3. Amazonica · 20:00 Southwell
Amazonica has the biggest market move on the list, from 17/2 to 7/2 for the bettingsites.co.uk For Fast Withdrawals Novice Stakes over a mile and three furlongs, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Owen Burrows trains the three-year-old, and his stable has had 4 winners from 11 runners over the past 14 days, a 36% strike rate. Amazonica won on debut and was third last time, and is rated 82 in a six-runner field headed by I’m The One on 100. Jason Hart rides at 9st 11lb.
4. Chantelle · 17:15 Wolverhampton
Chantelle has been backed from 8/1 to 4/1 for the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap over seven furlongs, with 23 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of three starts at Wolverhampton. Sir Mark Prescott trains the three-year-old and Marco Ghiani rides at 9st 4lb. Chantelle is rated 95, a pound below top-rated Powder Monkey, the nap of Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail.
5. Dowman · 18:30 Southwell
Dowman has been cut from 7/1 to 4/1 for the bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap over six furlongs, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The stable provides the second signal: George Boughey has had 5 winners from 18 runners over the past 14 days, a 28% strike rate. Billy Loughnane rides the two-year-old at 9st 7lb off a mark of 76, and Dowman has finished in the first two in five of six starts. Casino Star, napped by Rob Wright in The Times, is top-rated on 81.
6. Ez Tiger · 16:30 Plumpton
Ez Tiger has been backed from 4/1 to 5/2 for the Trottenden Farm Handicap Hurdle over two miles, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of five starts at Plumpton. Alex Hales trains the nine-year-old and Bryan Carver rides at 11st 13lb off a mark of 102. Latin, the top-rated runner on 104, is napped by BGTips.co.uk and sportinglife.com but has drifted from 10/11 to 5/4, so it misses the list.
7. Churchill Bond · 15:10 Gowran Park
One of two qualifiers without a market signal. Churchill Bond has shortened from 6/4 to 6/5 for the Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden, with only one of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more, and is napped by Kieran McHugh in the Norwich Evening News and Brian Flanagan in the Irish Daily Star. The stable provides the second signal: P Twomey has had 4 winners from 11 runners over the past 14 days, a 36% strike rate. The two-year-old is top-rated on 94, a pound clear of Katiraya in a field of 15, and W J Lee rides at 9st 3lb.
8. Bass Hunter · 14:00 Plumpton
Bass Hunter is the shortest-priced runner on the list, cut from 2/5 to 3/10 for the Betty Chantler Novices’ Hurdle, and has three naps: Mercury in the Daily Post, Ratings Hub at attheraces.com and Melissa Jones in the Daily Express. Mercury has 10 winners from its last 28 naps, joint-second best over the past 28 days. Freddie Gordon rides for Chris Gordon and has 22 winners from 89 rides at Plumpton, a 25% strike rate. The six-year-old carries 11st 0lb in a field of five, in which Anniversary is top-rated on 120.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Sunday 18 October, and their picks today. Mercury, Jeffrey Ross and Computeform tie for second:
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: Latin, 16:30 Plumpton.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Bass Hunter, 14:00 Plumpton.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Lancaster Tower, 17:30 Southwell.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Stormy Winter, 16:15 Wolverhampton.
The most-napped horse of the day is Silverella in the Listed Silver Tankard Stakes at 14:53 Pontefract, with four naps. The price has shortened from 5/1 to 10/3, just short of the 30% move needed, so naps are its only signal and it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Alidam (15:00 Plumpton): 18/1 to 4/1, a 74% move.
- An Outlaw’s Grace (14:47 Bath): 11/1 to 4/1, a 58% move.
- Ballybunion (19:30 Southwell): 7/1 to 5/2, a 56% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Sunday’s Hot List had six runners and none of them won. Dexperts Opinion (13/8) went closest, joining the leader two out in the Durham National at Sedgefield before finding no extra from the last, and finished second, beaten a length and a half. Red Delta (15/2) stayed on from two out to finish fourth in the same race, beaten around two and a quarter lengths. Edelak (4/5) was second in a three-runner novices’ hurdle at Sedgefield, beaten two and a half lengths. Crowsatedappletart (14/1) made headway after three out but weakened two out and was sixth at Limerick, beaten around 25 lengths. Bathgate (20/1) was seventh at Sedgefield, beaten around 18 lengths, and Gambino (2/1) made a bad mistake two out in the same race and weakened to finish ninth. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned nothing from £6 staked, a loss of £6. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:31 BST on Monday 19 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 5 October to 18 October.
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