The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Crowsatedappletart in the 15:00 at Limerick, the biggest market move among six qualifiers. The price has shortened from 22/1 to 10/1 with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and the nine-year-old has won four of 12 starts at the course. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Six runners qualify today. Jeffrey Ross, Computeform, Mercury and Ratings Hub finished level on strike rate for second place over the past 28 days, so all four count as top-three tipsters, along with BGTips.co.uk.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crowsatedappletart | 15:00 Limerick | Backed / Course | 22/1 to 10/1 · 4 wins from 12 at course |
| 2 | Bathgate | 16:20 Sedgefield | Backed / Course | 33/1 to 20/1 · 2 wins from 5 at course |
| 3 | Red Delta | 15:20 Sedgefield | Napped / Jockey | 3 naps · Hughes 234 winners from 1,072 rides at Sedgefield |
| 4 | Gambino | 16:20 Sedgefield | Napped / Jockey | 3 naps · Skelton 15 winners from 57 rides at Sedgefield |
| 5 | Edelak | 13:50 Sedgefield | Napped / Jockey | BGTips.co.uk nap · Skelton 15 winners from 57 rides at Sedgefield |
| 6 | Dexperts Opinion | 15:20 Sedgefield | Napped / Jockey | 3 naps · Bowen 19 winners from 51 rides at Sedgefield |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Crowsatedappletart:
“Crowsatedappletart tops the list on the market and a clear liking for Limerick. Four wins from 12 starts here is a strong course record, and going from 22/1 to 10/1 with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting tells you someone fancies it. What I can’t ignore is the P at the end of the form figures, and at nine it’s taking on 18 rivals in a big-field handicap hurdle. The course form gives it a real chance, but at 10/1 most of the value has gone, and I’d want to see it bounce back from that last run before getting too involved.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Crowsatedappletart · 15:00 Limerick
Crowsatedappletart has been backed from 22/1 to 10/1 for the Limerick Show Handicap Hurdle over two miles and three furlongs, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. The course provides the second signal: the nine-year-old has won four of 12 starts at Limerick, a 33% strike rate. Michael Winters trains and Darragh O’Keeffe rides at 11st 4lb in a field of 19. Crowsatedappletart has form figures of 6-165P and was pulled up on its latest start.
2. Bathgate · 16:20 Sedgefield
Bathgate has been cut from 33/1 to 20/1 for the www.betvickers.com App Handicap Hurdle over two miles, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won two of five starts at Sedgefield. Philip Kirby trains the six-year-old and Joe Williamson rides at 10st 2lb in a field of nine. Bathgate comes into the race with form figures of 169-77, and Gambino, number four on the list, runs in the same race.
3. Red Delta · 15:20 Sedgefield
The first of four qualifiers without a market signal. Red Delta has three naps for the Bet Vickers Durham National Handicap Chase over three miles and five furlongs, from Marlborough in the Daily Telegraph, Ben Morgan at Racing Ahead and On The Nose in the Racing Post. The price has shortened from 6/1 to 5/1, but only 7 of 24 bookmakers have cut by 20% or more. The second signal is the jockey: Brian Hughes has ridden 234 winners from 1,072 rides at Sedgefield, a 22% strike rate. Fiona Needham trains the seven-year-old, who carries 11st 3lb in a field of seven and won on its only previous start at the course.
4. Gambino · 16:20 Sedgefield
Gambino is napped by The Duke in the Yorkshire Post, Sam Hardy in the Weekender and Computeform at The Racing App, one of the joint top-three nap tipsters over the past 28 days. The price has moved from 2/1 to 7/4, with 6 of 24 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more. Harry Skelton rides for Dan Skelton and has ridden 15 winners from 57 rides at Sedgefield, a 26% strike rate. The five-year-old carries 10st 12lb and has form figures of 3-114. Klitschko also has three naps in this race, and a course record of two wins from four, but misses the list because its price has drifted from 7/2 to 4/1.
5. Edelak · 13:50 Sedgefield
Edelak is the nap of BGTips.co.uk, which has the best nap record over the past 28 days with 13 winners from 27, for the Michael And Olivia Watson Novices’ Hurdle, a three-runner race over just under two and a half miles. The price has barely moved, from 10/11 to 4/5. Like Gambino, the four-year-old is ridden by Harry Skelton for Dan Skelton, and carries 11st 10lb. The main rival, Tommy Pickles, has three naps but has drifted from 8/11 to 10/11, so it misses the list.
6. Dexperts Opinion · 15:20 Sedgefield
The second qualifier from the Durham National. Dexperts Opinion is napped by Rob Wright in The Times and by Spotlight and West Country in the Racing Post, and the price has held steady at 5/2. James Bowen provides the second signal, with 19 winners from 51 rides at Sedgefield, a 37% strike rate. Mickey Bowen trains the six-year-old, who carries 10st 10lb and has form figures of 47-121. Ivane, who has won two of three starts at Sedgefield, has drifted from 6/1 to 15/2 in the same race.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Saturday 17 October, and their picks today. Four tipsters are level in second, so all four are included:
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: Edelak, 13:50 Sedgefield.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Lady Boujee, 14:50 Sedgefield.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Gambino, 16:20 Sedgefield.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Brickfield Belle, 14:00 Limerick.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 10 winners from 28 naps (36%). Today: Nermal, 16:12 Leopardstown.
Lady Boujee misses the list because its price has drifted from 10/3 to 7/2. Brickfield Belle and Nermal have naps as their only signal: Brickfield Belle has shortened from 5/6 to 8/13, but only 7 of 23 bookmakers have cut by 20% or more, and Nermal is unchanged at 10/1. Seven horses share the most naps of the day, with three each. Dexperts Opinion, Gambino and Red Delta are on the list, while Klitschko and Tommy Pickles have drifted, and Brickfield Belle and Stay Hopeful have no second signal. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Greek Flower (17:12 Leopardstown): 18/1 to 17/2, a 50% move.
- Playin Cool (15:12 Leopardstown): 10/1 to 5/1, a 46% move.
- Dublin’s Knight (14:42 Leopardstown): 12/1 to 13/2, a 42% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Saturday’s Hot List had seven runners and two winners. Yanka Blue was withdrawn at Stratford with a temperature. Watamu (5/4) travelled strongly and led on the run-in to win readily at Stratford, and Trigg (8/13) went clear from two out to win easily at Newton Abbot. Satellite Of Love (4/1) was challenging over a furlong out but had nothing more to give in the final strides, finishing third at Ascot. List topper Light N Strike (9/2) made several jumping errors and weakened three out to finish third at Market Rasen. Power Blue (33/1) led until two furlongs out and was sixth in the Champions Sprint, and Hickory (11/2) kept on from the rear for seventh in the Balmoral. A £1 win bet on each of the six runners at starting price returned £3.87, a loss of £2.13. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:28 BST on Sunday 18 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 4 October to 17 October.
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