The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Light N Strike in the 14:25 at Market Rasen, the biggest market move among seven qualifiers. The price has shortened from 12/1 to 9/2 with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and James Bowen has ridden 30 winners from 157 rides at the course. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Seven runners qualify today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Light N Strike | 14:25 Market Rasen | Backed / Jockey | 12/1 to 9/2 · Bowen 30 winners from 157 rides at Market Rasen |
| 2 | Power Blue | 14:05 Ascot | Backed / Napped | 66/1 to 33/1 · 2 naps |
| 3 | Watamu | 14:49 Stratford | Backed / Course | 5/2 to 5/4 · 2 wins from 2 at course |
| 4 | Hickory | 16:35 Ascot | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 15/2 · 4 wins from 14 at course |
| 5 | Satellite Of Love | 12:55 Ascot | Backed / Trainer | 13/2 to 4/1 · Cox 7 winners from 24 in 14 days |
| 6 | Yanka Blue | 16:18 Stratford | Backed / Jockey | 14/1 to 9/1 · O’Brien 14 winners from 56 rides at Stratford |
| 7 | Trigg | 13:05 Newton Abbot | Napped / Jockey | BGTips.co.uk nap · Skelton 44 winners from 207 rides at Newton Abbot |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Light N Strike:
“Light N Strike is top of the list because of the market. A move from 12/1 to 9/2 with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting is a strong one in a six-runner handicap chase, and James Bowen has a decent record at Market Rasen, with 30 winners from 157 rides. The form is what holds me back. Its last three runs read 6-6-6, and at ten it shares the top rating of 132 with Fringill Dike. I can see why the money has come, but at 9/2 you’re backing the market’s view rather than anything Light N Strike has shown lately.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Light N Strike · 14:25 Market Rasen
Light N Strike has been backed from 12/1 to 9/2 for the Pertemps Network Jean & Paul Lucas Memorial Handicap Chase over two miles and five furlongs, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. The second signal is the jockey: James Bowen has ridden 30 winners from 157 rides at Market Rasen, a 19% strike rate. Emma Lavelle trains the ten-year-old, who carries 11st 10lb and shares the top rating of 132 with Fringill Dike in a field of six. Light N Strike has form figures of 0-4666 and finished seventh on its only previous run at the course.
2. Power Blue · 14:05 Ascot
Power Blue has been cut from 66/1 to 33/1 for the Group 1 Qatar Racing British Champions Sprint Stakes over six furlongs, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by Mercury in the Daily Post, one of the top three nap tipsters over the past 28 days, and Matt Polley in the Ipswich Star. Robson De Aguiar trains the three-year-old, who is rated 124 in a field of 16 headed by Almeraq on 132, and David Egan rides at 9st 3lb. Power Blue has not won in two previous starts at Ascot.
3. Watamu · 14:49 Stratford
Watamu has shortened from 5/2 to 5/4 for the Mares’ Handicap Hurdle over two miles, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won both previous starts at Stratford. The five-year-old is top-rated in the field of six on 125 and carries top weight of 12st 0lb. Emma Lavelle, who also trains Light N Strike, saddles her, and Jonathan Burke rides.
4. Hickory · 16:35 Ascot
Hickory has been cut from 12/1 to 15/2 for the Balmoral Handicap over a mile, with 19 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and has won four of 14 starts at Ascot. The Guardian also makes the eight-year-old its nap. Jamie Osborne trains and Saffie Osborne rides at 9st 1lb off a rating of 119, two pounds below Ebt’s Guard and Gavriel at the top of a field of 21.
5. Satellite Of Love · 12:55 Ascot
Satellite Of Love has been backed from 13/2 to 4/1 for the Qatar Racing British Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes over six furlongs, with 20 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Clive Cox trains, and his stable has had 7 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, a 29% strike rate. The two-year-old has form figures of 11521 and is rated 112, five pounds below top-rated Arapaho Gold. Rossa Ryan rides at 9st 7lb.
6. Yanka Blue · 16:18 Stratford
Yanka Blue has been cut from 14/1 to 9/1 for the Value With Oncourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle over two miles and two furlongs, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The second signal is the jockey: Paul O’Brien has ridden 14 winners from 56 rides at Stratford, a 25% strike rate. Barry John Murphy trains the five-year-old, who carries 10st 8lb off a rating of 103 in a field of eight topped by Lady Dapple Rose on 108. Lord Cauvelliere has been backed from 22/1 to 9/1 in the same race.
7. Trigg · 13:05 Newton Abbot
The only qualifier without a market signal. Trigg has shortened from 6/5 to 8/11 for the British Stallion Studs EBF National Hunt Novices’ Hurdle, with 17 of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed, and is the nap of BGTips.co.uk, which has the best nap record over the past 28 days with 12 winners from 27. The second signal is the jockey: Harry Skelton has ridden 44 winners from 207 rides at Newton Abbot, a 21% strike rate, and rides for Dan Skelton. The five-year-old carries 11st 6lb and is top-rated in the field of eight on 120, with Mecene next on 115.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Friday 16 October, and their picks today. Ratings Hub and Mercury are level in second:
- BGTips.co.uk: 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Trigg, 13:05 Newton Abbot.
- Ratings Hub (attheraces.com): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Gstaad, 15:20 Ascot.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Power Blue, 14:05 Ascot.
Gstaad misses the list because naps are its only signal and the price has moved only from 3/1 to 5/2 for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. The most-napped horse of the day is Highwayman in the Long Distance Cup at 13:30 Ascot, with four naps, from Newsboy in the Daily Mirror, Templegate in The Sun, Jason Heavey in The Star and Spotlight in the Racing Post. Naps are its only signal: the price has shortened from 3/1 to 9/4, but only 8 of 23 bookmakers have cut by 20% or more, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Faded Fantasy (14:52 Newton Abbot): 28/1 to 8/1, a 69% move.
- Tountinna (14:55 Limerick): 33/1 to 11/1, a 65% move.
- Monsieur Bondy (17:30 Southwell): 12/1 to 9/2, a 58% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Friday’s Hot List had seven runners and no winner. Turbocharged was withdrawn at Uttoxeter because of the ground. Getawhisky (5/4) came closest, second in the Mares’ Beginners’ Chase at Uttoxeter, beaten seven lengths after taking a keen hold and jumping left at times. Rogue Encore (4/1) was in touch until weakening inside the final furlong and finished fifth at Newcastle, and list topper Shorien (18/1) was prominent before weakening over a furlong out, seventh at Redcar. Miss Willows (28/1) pressed the leader before fading to finish tenth at Redcar, Parisiac (9/1) was 12th on heavy ground at Haydock and Eeetee (25/1) was 13th at Redcar. A £1 win bet on each of the six runners at starting price returned nothing, a loss of £6. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:31 BST on Saturday 17 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 3 October to 16 October.
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