The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Big Effort in the 12:05 at Newmarket, the biggest market move among seven qualifiers. The price has shortened from 50/1 to 20/1 with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more, and Ismail Mohammed’s stable has 3 winners from 10 runners over the past fortnight. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Seven runners qualify today. BGTips.co.uk, Computeform and Mercury hold the top three nap places over the past 28 days, with no tie for third. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Effort | 12:05 Newmarket | Backed / Trainer | 50/1 to 20/1 · Mohammed 3 winners from 10 in 14 days |
| 2 | Taranis Dubh | 13:07 Uttoxeter | Backed / Jockey | 5/4 to 1/3 · Sean Bowen 118 from 590 at Uttoxeter |
| 3 | Merry Wood | 13:37 Uttoxeter | Backed / Jockey | 7/4 to 4/5 · Sean Bowen 118 from 590 at Uttoxeter |
| 4 | Kingston Narcissus | 15:35 Wetherby | Napped / Jockey | 4 naps · Skelton 77 from 250 at Wetherby |
| 5 | Siena Storm | 13:45 Newmarket | Napped / Trainer | 3 naps · Walker 6 winners from 23 in 14 days |
| 6 | Le Beau Madrik | 13:20 Wetherby | Napped / Jockey | BGTips.co.uk nap · Skelton 77 from 250 at Wetherby |
| 7 | Ballyfad | 15:45 Down Royal | Napped / Jockey | Mercury nap · Kennedy 53 from 179 at Down Royal |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Big Effort:
“Big Effort tops the list on the market, and it’s a big move for a horse with nothing to go on. Going from 50/1 to 20/1 with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting says there’s money about, and Ismail Mohammed’s stable has had three winners from ten in the past fortnight. The catch is that it has no form figures and no rating, while Odell and Solo Quest are both rated 80 in the same race. At 20/1 it’s one to consider on price, but I’d rate Odell and Solo Quest the more likely winners.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Big Effort · 12:05 Newmarket
Big Effort has been backed from 50/1 to 20/1 for the first division of the German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool British EBF Novice Stakes, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Ismail Mohammed and Jose Santos train the two-year-old, and Mohammed’s stable has had 3 winners from 10 runners over the past 14 days, a 30% strike rate. Marco Ghiani rides at 9st 2lb. Big Effort is unrated, while Odell and Solo Quest head the ratings in a field of 12 on 80.
2. Taranis Dubh · 13:07 Uttoxeter
Taranis Dubh has been cut from 5/4 to 1/3 for the QuinnBet Novices’ Hurdle, with 23 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Sean Bowen rides at 11st 7lb and has 118 winners from 590 rides at Uttoxeter since 2010, a 20% strike rate. Olly Murphy trains the five-year-old, who is the top-rated runner in a field of five on 120, ahead of Seven Kites on 113.
3. Merry Wood · 13:37 Uttoxeter
Merry Wood has been backed from 7/4 to 4/5 for the Support The Royal British Legion Poppy Appeal Mares’ Maiden Hurdle, with 20 of 22 bookmakers cutting. The four-year-old has one nap, from Dean Kilbryde in the East Anglian Daily Times, which is not enough for the naps signal. Sean Bowen rides at 11st 5lb and has 118 winners from 590 rides at Uttoxeter since 2010, a 20% strike rate. Olly Murphy trains, and Merry Wood is unrated in a field of 14 where Dolly Drama heads the ratings on 103.
4. Kingston Narcissus · 15:35 Wetherby
Kingston Narcissus is napped by The Duke in the Yorkshire Post, Lee Sobot in the Yorkshire Evening Post, Sam Hardy in the Weekender and Templegate in The Sun, the most naps of any runner today. The price has gone from 7/4 to 11/8 for the Crossley Handicap Chase, with 6 of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more, so the market is not a signal. Dan Skelton trains the seven-year-old, and Harry Skelton rides at 11st 1lb and has 77 winners from 250 rides at Wetherby since 2010, a 30.8% strike rate. Kingston Narcissus is rated 148, level with Crebilly at the top of the ratings in a field of seven.
5. Siena Storm · 13:45 Newmarket
Siena Storm is napped by The Brigadier at punterslounge.com, The Data Detective at RaceiQ and Newsboy in the Daily Mirror. The price has edged from 11/8 to 6/5 for the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes, with 1 of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more, so the market is not a signal. The stable provides the second signal: Ed Walker has had 6 winners from 23 runners over the past 14 days, a 26% strike rate. Kieran Shoemark rides the two-year-old at 9st 2lb, and Siena Storm is the top-rated runner in a field of 14 on 105, ahead of Nicely on 98.
6. Le Beau Madrik · 13:20 Wetherby
Le Beau Madrik is the nap of BGTips.co.uk, which has found 16 winners from its last 27 naps, the best record over the past 28 days. The price has gone from 1/4 to 1/6 for the bet365 “Chasing Excellence” Beginners’ Chase, a two-runner race, with no bookmaker cutting by 20% or more, so the market is not a signal. Dan Skelton trains the five-year-old, and Harry Skelton rides at 11st 5lb and has 77 winners from 250 rides at Wetherby since 2010, a 30.8% strike rate.
7. Ballyfad · 15:45 Down Royal
Ballyfad is the nap of Mercury in the Daily Post, which has found 12 winners from its last 27 naps, a top-three record over the past 28 days. The price is unchanged at 4/6 for the BetVictor Beginners Chase, so the market is not a signal. The five-year-old won its only start at Down Royal, and Jack Kennedy rides at 11st 12lb and has 53 winners from 179 rides there since 2010, a 29.6% strike rate. Gordon Elliott trains, and Ballyfad is unrated in a field of 14 where Arcadian Emperor heads the ratings on 131.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Thursday 29 October, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 16 winners from 27 naps (59%). Today: Le Beau Madrik, 13:20 Wetherby.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Blake, 14:35 Down Royal.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Ballyfad, 15:45 Down Royal.
The most-napped horse of the day is Kingston Narcissus in the Crossley Handicap Chase at 15:35 Wetherby, with four naps, and it is number 4 on the list. Phone Tag in the 14:55 at Newmarket also has three naps, but naps are its only signal, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Supreme Lillia (20:20 Newcastle): 25/1 to 9/1, a 62% move.
- Sayitfirst (15:10 Down Royal): 25/1 to 10/1, a 58% move.
- Against The Wind (18:15 Newcastle): 9/1 to 7/2, a 55% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Thursday’s Hot List had eight runners and three of them won. Anthropologist (evens) came from towards the rear at Southwell and led inside the final furlong to win comfortably. Forthfactor (1/8) made all at Stratford and went well clear, and Red Metal (13/8) made all in the first division there to win readily. Sevenkingsmustdie (3/1) pressed the leader at Southwell before weakening and finished fourth, beaten around two lengths, while I’d Go Maniac (3/1) was sixth in the 20:30, beaten around four lengths, after not getting a clear run inside the final 110 yards. Loki’s Mischief (11/4) weakened after the third-last and was fourth at Ffos Las, beaten around 22 lengths. Baile An Or (5/1) was sixth, beaten around 20 lengths, and the vet reported afterwards that it had lost a shoe, while Whatsgoingonmarvin (100/30) was tailed off in third, beaten around 35 lengths. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £5.75 from £8 staked, a loss of £2.25. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:29 GMT on Friday 30 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 16 to 29 October; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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