The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Baile An Or in the 13:30 at Ffos Las, the biggest market move among eight qualifiers. The price has shortened from 12/1 to 15/2 with 12 of 24 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more, and Joe Tizzard’s stable has 10 winners from 31 runners over the past fortnight. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Eight runners qualify today. BGTips.co.uk, Computeform and Mercury hold the top three nap places over the past 28 days, with no tie for third. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baile An Or | 13:30 Ffos Las | Backed / Trainer | 12/1 to 15/2 · Tizzard 10 winners from 31 in 14 days |
| 2 | Whatsgoingonmarvin | 15:00 Ffos Las | Backed / Jockey | 5/1 to 3/1 · Sean Bowen 103 from 502 at Ffos Las |
| 3 | I’d Go Maniac | 20:30 Southwell | Backed / Jockey | 8/1 to 5/1 · Levey 45 from 218 at Southwell |
| 4 | Loki’s Mischief | 16:00 Ffos Las | Napped / Course | 2 naps, including Computeform · 2 wins from 2 at course |
| 5 | Anthropologist | 16:25 Southwell | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Herrington 5 winners from 18 in 14 days |
| 6 | Sevenkingsmustdie | 19:30 Southwell | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Levey 45 from 218 at Southwell |
| 7 | Forthfactor | 14:20 Stratford | Napped / Jockey | 4 naps, including BGTips.co.uk and Mercury · Skelton 74 from 291 at Stratford |
| 8 | Red Metal | 13:50 Stratford | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · O’Brien 14 from 57 at Stratford |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Baile An Or:
“Baile An Or tops the list on a market move and a stable in form, and that’s about as far as it goes. Going from 12/1 to 15/2 is a useful shift, although only 12 of 24 bookmakers have cut it by a fifth or more, and Joe Tizzard has had ten winners from 31 in the past fortnight. I’m less sure about the horse itself. The form figures end in a 7, and it’s rated 108 against 124 for Arcadian Star in the same maiden. At 15/2 it’s one to consider on price, but I’d rate Arcadian Star the more likely winner.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Baile An Or · 13:30 Ffos Las
Baile An Or has been backed from 12/1 to 15/2 for the bettingsites.co.uk Maiden Hurdle, with 12 of 24 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Joe Tizzard trains the five-year-old, and his stable has had 10 winners from 31 runners over the past 14 days, a 32% strike rate. Brendan Powell rides at 11st 4lb and Baile An Or is rated 108, behind Arcadian Star on 124 and The Final Word on 111.
2. Whatsgoingonmarvin · 15:00 Ffos Las
Whatsgoingonmarvin has been cut from 5/1 to 3/1 for the Golwg Gwendraeth Handicap Hurdle, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Sean Bowen rides at 11st 10lb and has 103 winners from 502 rides at Ffos Las since 2010, a 20.5% strike rate. Mickey Bowen trains the four-year-old, who is rated 99, behind Boyles Hill on 103 and Kates Choice on 101.
3. I’d Go Maniac · 20:30 Southwell
I’d Go Maniac has been backed from 8/1 to 5/1 for the Make The Move To Midnite Handicap, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Sean Levey rides at 10st 0lb and has 45 winners from 218 rides at Southwell since 2010, a 20.6% strike rate. Alan King trains the seven-year-old, who is rated 77, two pounds behind Light Speed and Pappa Louis on 79.
4. Loki’s Mischief · 16:00 Ffos Las
Loki’s Mischief is napped by Computeform at The Racing App, which has found 13 winners from its last 28 naps, and by The Punt in the Racing Post. The six-year-old has won both starts at Ffos Las and has been cut from 5/1 to 7/2 for the Walters Group Handicap Chase, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed. Chester Williams trains and Ciaran Gethings rides at 11st 2lb. Loki’s Mischief is rated 126, behind Mountain Mike on 128 and Muskoka on 127.
5. Anthropologist · 16:25 Southwell
Anthropologist is napped by Templegate in The Sun and The North in the Racing Post, and has been cut from 9/4 to 11/8 for the All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap, with 18 of 24 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed. The stable provides the second signal: Michael Herrington has had 5 winners from 18 runners over the past 14 days, a 28% strike rate. Dylan Hogan rides the four-year-old at 10st 5lb, and Anthropologist is rated 74, behind Monsieur Bondy on 79 and Dovey Moon on 78.
6. Sevenkingsmustdie · 19:30 Southwell
Sevenkingsmustdie is napped by On The Nose in the Racing Post and Garry Owen in the Daily Record. The price has edged from 3/1 to 5/2 for the Midnite Ain’t Your Grandad’s Bookie Handicap, with no bookmaker cutting by 20% or more, so the market is not a signal. Sean Levey rides at 9st 11lb and has 45 winners from 218 rides at Southwell since 2010, a 20.6% strike rate. Alan King trains the four-year-old, who is rated 66, behind Charlie Darling on 71 and Fleur De Mer on 69.
7. Forthfactor · 14:20 Stratford
Forthfactor has four naps, from Farringdon in the Morning Star, Mercury in the Daily Post, BGTips.co.uk and Lee Sobot in the Yorkshire Evening Post, and two of those tipsters, BGTips.co.uk and Mercury, are in the top three over the past 28 days. The price has gone from 1/4 to 1/7 for the second division of the EBF and Charlie Longsdon Racing “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle Qualifier, with 1 of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more. Dan Skelton trains the five-year-old, and Harry Skelton rides at 11st 0lb and has 74 winners from 291 rides at Stratford since 2010, a 25.4% strike rate. Forthfactor is unrated, while Emerald Tir heads the ratings on 110.
8. Red Metal · 13:50 Stratford
Red Metal is napped by Topspeed and Lambourn in the Racing Post. The price is unchanged at 7/4 for the first division of the EBF and Charlie Longsdon Racing “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle Qualifier, so the market is not a signal. The four-year-old has won one of two starts at Stratford, carries 11st 5lb and is the top-rated runner in a field of 10 on 114, ahead of Mr Maximillian on 101. Henrietta Knight trains and Paul O’Brien rides, with 14 winners from 57 rides at Stratford since 2010, a 24.6% strike rate.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Wednesday 28 October, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 16 winners from 27 naps (59%). Today: Forthfactor, 14:20 Stratford.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Loki’s Mischief, 16:00 Ffos Las.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 11 winners from 27 naps (41%). Today: Forthfactor, 14:20 Stratford.
The most-napped horse of the day is Forthfactor in the 14:20 at Stratford, with four naps, and it is number 7 on the list. Beaujon at Southwell and Gatineau Park at Stratford have three naps each, but neither has a second signal, so both miss the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Mistral Du Chenet (15:30 Ffos Las): 14/1 to 3/1, a 72% move.
- Al Suil Eile (18:00 Southwell): 16/1 to 13/2, a 56% move.
- Mr Moonshine (20:30 Southwell): 15/2 to 3/1, a 53% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Wednesday’s Hot List had five runners and two of them won. Vango Can Go (1/4) made all at Newton Abbot and went clear before the second-last to win readily, while Real Quartz (2/1) was prominent in a handicap hurdle there and led towards the finish after a duel with the runner-up. Tazman Dan (9/2) kept on to finish third at Huntingdon, beaten just over half a length. Centara (9/4) led early before weakening and finished fourth at Newton Abbot, beaten around 15 lengths, and In Limbo (10/1) was seventh in the Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series qualifier, beaten around 11 lengths. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £4.25 from £5 staked, a loss of £0.75. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:26 GMT on Thursday 29 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 15 to 28 October; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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