The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Tazman Dan in the 15:06 at Huntingdon, the biggest market move among five qualifiers. The price has shortened from 6/1 to 3/1 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and Stuart Edmunds’ stable has 3 winners from 10 runners over the past fortnight. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Five runners qualify today, four of them at Newton Abbot.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tazman Dan | 15:06 Huntingdon | Backed / Trainer | 6/1 to 3/1 · Edmunds 3 winners from 10 in 14 days |
| 2 | In Limbo | 14:51 Newton Abbot | Backed / Jockey | 11/1 to 13/2 · Carver 17 from 86 at Newton Abbot |
| 3 | Centara | 15:21 Newton Abbot | Backed / Course | 9/2 to 5/2 · 4 wins from 8 at course |
| 4 | Vango Can Go | 13:21 Newton Abbot | Napped / Jockey | 3 naps, including BGTips.co.uk · Skelton 46 from 212 at Newton Abbot |
| 5 | Real Quartz | 13:51 Newton Abbot | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Skelton 46 from 212 at Newton Abbot |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Tazman Dan:
“Tazman Dan is on top because of the market and the yard. Going from 6/1 to 3/1 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting is a proper move, and Stuart Edmunds has had three winners from ten in the past fortnight. The form is more ordinary, though. It’s finished fourth on each of its last two starts and is rated 99, 2lb below Knighton and Northern Rose, so the market is expecting improvement rather than backing something already in the book. It has a fair chance, but at 3/1 most of the value has gone.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Tazman Dan · 15:06 Huntingdon
Tazman Dan has been backed from 6/1 to 3/1 for the Hospitality At Huntingdon Racecourse Novices’ Handicap Hurdle, just short of two miles, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Stuart Edmunds trains the five-year-old, and his stable has had 3 winners from 10 runners over the past 14 days, a 30% strike rate. Charlie Hammond rides at 11st 10lb. Tazman Dan is rated 99 in a field of nine, with Knighton and Northern Rose top-rated on 101.
2. In Limbo · 14:51 Newton Abbot
In Limbo has been cut from 11/1 to 13/2 for the Passage House Hotel South Devon Gateway Handicap Hurdle over two miles, with 18 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Bryan Carver provides the second signal, with 17 winners from 86 rides at Newton Abbot, a 20% strike rate. Chris Honour trains the eight-year-old, who carries 11st 4lb off a mark of 116. The market has also moved for Sioux Falls in the same race, from 18/1 to 17/2, and that rival is the top-rated runner on 119.
3. Centara · 15:21 Newton Abbot
Centara has been cut from 9/2 to 5/2 for the Persimmon Homes Handicap Chase over two miles, with 16 of 24 bookmakers cutting, and has won four of eight starts at Newton Abbot. The eight-year-old tops the weights at 12st 2lb and is the top-rated runner on 125, a pound clear of The Four Sixes. Paul Nicholls trains and Jay Tidball rides. Opening Bid also has four wins from eight at the course, but its price has drifted from 2/1 to 11/4, so it is left out.
4. Vango Can Go · 13:21 Newton Abbot
Vango Can Go has three naps for the St. Austell Brewery Novices’ Hurdle, from BGTips.co.uk, Mercury in the Daily Post and Lee Sobot in the Yorkshire Evening Post. BGTips.co.uk has the best nap record of the past 28 days. The price has shortened from 3/10 to 1/7, but only one of 24 bookmakers has cut by 20% or more, so the market is not one of its signals. The second signal is the jockey: Harry Skelton has 46 winners from 212 rides at Newton Abbot, a 22% strike rate. Dan Skelton trains the five-year-old, who carries 11st 2lb in a field of four over two miles and five furlongs.
5. Real Quartz · 13:51 Newton Abbot
The second Skelton runner on the list. Real Quartz is napped by Luke Tucker in the Cambridge Evening News and Dean Kilbryde in the East Anglian Daily Times for the Wollens Full Spectrum Law Handicap Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs. The price has barely moved, from 11/10 to evens. Dan Skelton trains the six-year-old, whose form figures read 11, and Harry Skelton rides at 11st 13lb. Real Quartz is top-rated on 130, a pound above Heart Over Head.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Tuesday 27 October, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 15 winners from 27 naps (56%). Today: Vango Can Go, 13:21 Newton Abbot.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Star Rose, 14:46 Nottingham.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Sand Dance, 17:45 Kempton.
The most-napped horse of the day is Centigrade in the Robin Hood Stakes at 14:16 Nottingham, with six naps. Naps are its only signal and the price has shortened only from 15/8 to 13/8, well short of the 30% move needed, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Emily’s Boy (16:00 Dundalk): 25/1 to 6/1, a 75% move.
- Benavente (20:15 Kempton): 28/1 to 17/2, a 67% move.
- Waiting (17:45 Kempton): 20/1 to 17/2, a 55% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Tuesday’s Hot List had ten runners. Douglas Hyde was withdrawn at Bangor on vet’s advice after unseating its rider in the paddock, and two of the other nine won, both at Bangor. My Bobby’s Lass (17/2) came from the rear, led approaching the last and stayed on well, and Rattlin Home (2/5) went clear by the last and was eased towards the finish. Barry The Worm (3/1) ran on well in the final 110 yards at Wolverhampton and was beaten a short head, Ridger (8/13) was second at Wolverhampton, beaten a length and a half, and Vince Le Prince (100/30) lost second in the final strides at Catterick and finished third, beaten around two lengths. Ted Le Saux (3/1) was third at Wolverhampton, beaten two and three-quarter lengths, with Newfangled (5/1) seventh in the same race, beaten around ten lengths. Kel Du Large (4/1) was fourth at Bangor, beaten eight and three-quarter lengths, and Masked Dance (16/1) sixth at Bangor, beaten around 20 lengths. A £1 win bet on each runner at starting price returned £10.90 from £9 staked, a profit of £1.90. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:24 GMT on Wednesday 28 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 14 October to 27 October.
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