The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Thunder Roar in the 14:25 at Redcar, the biggest market move among five qualifiers. The price has shortened from 6/1 to 3/1 with 16 of 21 bookmakers cutting, and three tipsters have made it their nap. No runner reaches three signals today.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Five runners qualify today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder Roar | 14:25 Redcar | Backed / Napped | 6/1 to 3/1 · 3 naps |
| 2 | Toastmaster | 18:00 Southwell | Backed / Trainer | 6/1 to 10/3 · Herrington 6 winners from 17 in 14 days |
| 3 | Jetzet | 13:18 Hereford | Backed / Napped | 3/1 to 6/4 · 2 naps |
| 4 | Lady Roxby | 19:30 Southwell | Backed / Trainer | 5/1 to 3/1 · Herrington 6 winners from 17 in 14 days |
| 5 | Imperial Ballet | 16:10 Kempton | Napped / Jockey | BGTips.co.uk nap · Oisin Murphy 268 winners from 1,438 rides at Kempton |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Thunder Roar:
“Thunder Roar tops the list on a strong market move and three naps, and it won on its only previous visit to Redcar. The recent form is harder to like, though. The last six runs read 008767, and at 3/1 a fair bit of the price has already gone. Naepoint has won both its starts here, Rajapour has two course wins as well, and they’re the top two in the race on ratings. I can see why Thunder Roar’s been backed, but I’d want a bigger price before getting involved.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Thunder Roar · 14:25 Redcar
Thunder Roar has been backed from 6/1 to 3/1 for the Jumps Looks Better On Racing TV Handicap, a Class 3 race over seven furlongs and 219 yards on soft ground, with 16 of 21 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. It is napped by Jim Delahunt in the Scottish Sun, Dean Kilbryde in the East Anglian Daily Times and sportinglife.com. The seven-year-old has won its only previous start at Redcar, carries 9st 9lb and is rated 93, behind Naepoint on 96 and Rajapour on 95. Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood train and David Nolan rides.
2. Toastmaster · 18:00 Southwell
Toastmaster has been cut from 6/1 to 10/3 for the Midnite Ain’t Your Grandad’s Bookie Handicap over a mile and 13 yards on the Tapeta, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The stable provides the second signal: Michael Herrington has had 6 winners from 17 runners over the past 14 days, a 35% strike rate. Billy Loughnane rides the three-year-old at 9st 9lb, and Toastmaster is rated 83 in a field of nine headed by Sterling Fortune on 88.
3. Jetzet · 13:18 Hereford
Jetzet has shortened from 3/1 to 6/4 for the Betting.Bet New Betting Sites Novices’ Hurdle over two miles, three furlongs and 147 yards, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by Ben Morgan at Racing Ahead and Ross Shepherd in the Wrexham Leader. The four-year-old finished third on both previous starts and carries 10st 12lb. Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls train and Ciaran Gethings rides.
4. Lady Roxby · 19:30 Southwell
The second Michael Herrington runner on the list. Lady Roxby has been backed from 5/1 to 3/1 for the AWC Season 14 Has Begun Fillies’ Handicap over six furlongs and 16 yards, with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and the stable’s 6 winners from 17 runners over the past fortnight is the second signal. Jack Mitchell rides the four-year-old at 9st 12lb. Lady Roxby is rated 88, behind Arabian Leopard on 90 and Encore on 89, and the race also includes Courageous Sioux, one of the day’s most-napped horses.
5. Imperial Ballet · 16:10 Kempton
The only qualifier without a market signal. Imperial Ballet has shortened only slightly, from 5/4 to 11/10, for the Unibet’s New Var Goal Guarantee Novice Stakes over seven furlongs, but is the nap of BGTips.co.uk, which has found 13 winners from its last 27 naps, the best strike rate among tipsters with at least 20 naps over the past 28 days. The jockey provides the second signal: Oisin Murphy has ridden 268 winners from 1,438 rides at Kempton, a strike rate of 19%. Andrew Balding trains the three-year-old, who carries 9st 7lb and is the top-rated runner on 86.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Sunday 25 October, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: Imperial Ballet, 16:10 Kempton.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Courageous Sioux, 19:30 Southwell.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 10 winners from 27 naps (37%). Today: Boycetown, 14:45 Galway.
Three horses share the most naps of the day, with three each. Thunder Roar tops the Hot List. Courageous Sioux, napped by Computeform, Spotlight in the Racing Post and Garry Owen in the Daily Record, has only shortened from 4/1 to 15/4 for the 19:30 at Southwell, and Wodao is unchanged at 7/4 for the 15:49 at Leicester. Naps are the only signal for both, so they miss the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Luminous Approach (14:39 Leicester): 20/1 to 15/2, a 60% move.
- Mick The Hat (13:48 Hereford): 50/1 to 20/1, a 59% move.
- Beautiful Rumour (16:30 Southwell): 20/1 to 8/1, a 57% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How Friday’s Hot List did
Friday’s Hot List had six runners. One of them was a non-runner, and one of the five that ran won. Intervention (100/30) came from midfield on the outer and led towards the finish at Wolverhampton, beating Methgal by a neck. List topper The Hardest Geezer (9/2) went second approaching the last at Cheltenham but found no extra on the run-in and was beaten four and a half lengths, while Traprain Law (9/2) stayed on well to finish second at Cheltenham, beaten three-quarters of a length. Fine Interview (4/1) weakened inside the final furlong to finish ninth at Doncaster, beaten around eight lengths, and Eclairage (40/1) was 11th of 13 in the Group 3 Mercury Stakes at Dundalk, beaten around ten lengths. Handlethekettle did not run at Cheltenham. A £1 win bet on each of the five runners at starting price returned £4.33 from £5 staked, a loss of 67p. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:33 GMT on Monday 26 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 12 to 25 October.
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