The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is La Conquiere in the 13:45 at Wetherby, the only runner to reach three signals among nine qualifiers. The price has shortened from 10/3 to 13/8 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more, Jamie Snowden’s stable has 4 winners from 15 runners over the past fortnight, and Gavin Sheehan has 38 winners from 156 rides at Wetherby since 2010.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Nine runners qualify today. BGTips.co.uk, Jeffrey Ross and Computeform hold the top three nap places over the past 28 days, with no tie for third. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Conquiere | 13:45 Wetherby | Backed / Trainer / Jockey | 10/3 to 13/8 · Snowden 4 winners from 15 in 14 days · Sheehan 38 from 156 at Wetherby |
| 2 | Platin Moon | 15:37 Ayr | Backed / Course | 12/1 to 5/1 · 2 wins from 3 at course |
| 3 | Hammer The Hammer | 19:25 Southwell | Backed / Course | 15/2 to 4/1 · 2 wins from 3 at course |
| 4 | Haas Boy | 14:00 Ascot | Backed / Napped | 7/1 to 4/1 · 2 naps |
| 5 | Trustintimes | 15:43 Ascot | Backed / Napped | 4/1 to 5/2 · 4 naps |
| 6 | Top Coeur | 12:50 Ascot | Backed / Trainer | 18/1 to 12/1 · Williams 4 winners from 15 in 14 days |
| 7 | Ibtekar | 12:25 Newmarket | Napped / Trainer | Jeffrey Ross nap · Walker 7 winners from 26 in 14 days |
| 8 | Califet En Vol | 14:33 Ascot | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · de Boinville 45 from 183 at Ascot |
| 9 | Pic d’Orhy | 14:55 Wetherby | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Skelton 77 from 253 at Wetherby |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, La Conquiere:
“La Conquiere is the strongest case on the list, with the market, the stable and the jockey all pointing the same way. Going from 10/3 to 13/8 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting is a big move, Jamie Snowden has had four winners from 15 in the past fortnight and Gavin Sheehan has a good record at Wetherby. The catch is that the last run was a 6, and it’s rated 147, three pounds behind Kateira in a five-runner Listed race. At 13/8 the market has done a lot of the work already, so it’s one to respect rather than one to chase.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. La Conquiere · 13:45 Wetherby
La Conquiere has been backed from 10/3 to 13/8 for the bet365 Montagu Mares’ Hurdle, a Listed race over two miles, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting. It is the only runner on the list with three signals. Jamie Snowden trains the seven-year-old, and his stable has had 4 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. Gavin Sheehan rides at 11st 2lb and has 38 winners from 156 rides at Wetherby since 2010, a 24.4% strike rate. La Conquiere is rated 147, behind Kateira on 150 in a field of five.
2. Platin Moon · 15:37 Ayr
Platin Moon has been backed from 12/1 to 5/1 for the Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The five-year-old has won two of three starts at Ayr and carries 10st 5lb. N W Alexander trains and Bruce Lynn rides. Platin Moon is unrated in a field of six where Soldante heads the ratings on 123.
3. Hammer The Hammer · 19:25 Southwell
Hammer The Hammer has been cut from 15/2 to 4/1 for the Make The Move To Midnite Handicap, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting. The four-year-old has won two of three starts at Southwell and has one nap, from Marlborough in the Daily Telegraph, which is not enough for the naps signal. Kevin Ryan trains and Kevin Stott rides at 9st 11lb. Hammer The Hammer is rated 96, behind Indian Run on 104 and Bolo Neighs on 103.
4. Haas Boy · 14:00 Ascot
Haas Boy is napped by Karl Hedley in the Irish Post and Ross Shepherd at the Wrexham Leader, and has been backed from 7/1 to 4/1 for the Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The nine-year-old won its only start at Ascot and carries 10st 4lb. Chester Williams trains and Ciaran Gethings rides. Haas Boy is rated 147, behind Gabriel’s Getaway on 151 and Boothill on 150.
5. Trustintimes · 15:43 Ascot
Trustintimes is napped by Dean Kilbryde in the East Anglian Daily Times, The Brigadier at punterslounge.com, Rob Wright in The Times and Rockavon in the Sunday Mail, and has been backed from 4/1 to 5/2 for the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting. The five-year-old won its only start at Ascot and is the top-rated runner in a field of 16 on 146, a pound ahead of Hamlet’s Night. Harry Fry trains and Bryan Carver rides at 11st 1lb.
6. Top Coeur · 12:50 Ascot
Top Coeur has been backed from 18/1 to 12/1 for the Grundon Novices’ Handicap Hurdle, with 18 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Christian Williams trains the five-year-old, and his stable has had 4 winners from 15 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. Jack Tudor rides at 10st 3lb. Top Coeur is rated 122, behind Handmedownastar on 128 and Lord Chamberlain on 127.
7. Ibtekar · 12:25 Newmarket
Ibtekar is the nap of Jeffrey Ross at Sporting Times, which has found 13 winners from its last 28 naps, a top-three record over the past 28 days. The price has shortened from 7/4 to evens for the Cologne’s 65 Preis Von Europa British EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes, with 19 of 22 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed. The stable provides the second signal: Ed Walker has had 7 winners from 26 runners over the past 14 days, a 27% strike rate. Kieran Shoemark rides the two-year-old at 9st 2lb, and Ibtekar is the top-rated runner in a field of 11 on 88, ahead of Next Best on 75.
8. Califet En Vol · 14:33 Ascot
Califet En Vol is napped by Lambourn in the Racing Post and Sam Hardy in the Weekender. The price has been cut from 7/2 to 5/2 for the Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Chase, with 12 of 23 bookmakers cutting, short of the 30% move needed. Nicky Henderson trains the seven-year-old, and Nico de Boinville rides at 11st 9lb and has 45 winners from 183 rides at Ascot since 2010, a 24.6% strike rate. Califet En Vol is rated 150, level with Neon Moon and two pounds behind Henry’s Friend on 152.
9. Pic d’Orhy · 14:55 Wetherby
Pic d’Orhy is napped by Topspeed in the Racing Post and The Duke in the Yorkshire Post. The price is unchanged at 11/8 for the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase, a Grade 2, so the market is not a signal. Dan Skelton trains the 11-year-old, and Harry Skelton rides at 11st 4lb and has 77 winners from 253 rides at Wetherby since 2010, a 30.4% strike rate. Pic d’Orhy is the top-rated runner in a field of six on 176, ahead of Handstands on 168.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Friday 30 October, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 16 winners from 27 naps (59%). Today: Skerry Hill, 13:30 Down Royal.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Ibtekar, 12:25 Newmarket.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Heart Wood, 15:15 Down Royal.
Two horses share the most naps of the day, with four each: Trustintimes in the 15:43 at Ascot, who is number 5 on the list, and The Real Whacker in the Charlie Hall Chase at 14:55 Wetherby. Naps are The Real Whacker’s only signal and the price is unchanged at 9/2, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Jet Light (13:18 Ayr): 33/1 to 12/1, a 62% move.
- Ginger Mail (15:03 Ayr): 14/1 to 6/1, a 53% move.
- Bondy Boy (18:50 Southwell): 5/1 to 2/1, a 50% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Friday’s Hot List had seven runners and three of them won, with Ballyfad not running because of unsuitable ground. Taranis Dubh (4/9) led after hitting the second-last at Uttoxeter and kept on well to win comfortably, and Merry Wood (evens) led on the run-in in the mares’ maiden hurdle and went clear to win readily. Siena Storm (11/8) came from towards the rear in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket and went clear inside the final furlong. Le Beau Madrik (2/11) led in a two-runner race at Wetherby and was beaten half a length, while Kingston Narcissus (11/8) was third in the Crossley Handicap Chase, beaten around three lengths. Big Effort (14/1) ran green and weakened from two furlongs out, finishing twelfth of 12, beaten around 23 lengths. A £1 win bet on each of the six runners at starting price returned £5.82 from £6 staked, a loss of £0.18. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 07:53 GMT on Saturday 31 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 17 to 30 October; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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