The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is We’re Red And Blue in the 12:38 at Carlisle, the only runner with four signals. The price has shortened from 11/4 to 6/5 with 19 of 22 bookmakers cutting, two tipsters have napped it, the Jonjo and A J O’Neill stable has had 8 winners from 28 runners over the past fortnight, and Jonjo O’Neill Jr has ridden 24 winners from 93 rides at Carlisle since 2010.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Eight runners qualify today. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We’re Red And Blue | 12:38 Carlisle | Backed / Napped / Trainer / Jockey | 11/4 to 6/5 · 2 naps · O’Neill 8 winners from 28 in 14 days · O’Neill Jr 24 from 93 at Carlisle |
| 2 | Theatre Tom | 15:40 Worcester | Napped / Trainer / Jockey | 2 naps · Murphy 7 winners from 28 in 14 days · Bowen 106 from 465 at Worcester |
| 3 | Obsessedwithyou | 13:48 Carlisle | Backed / Jockey | 14/1 to 11/2 · Twiston-Davies 22 from 88 at Carlisle |
| 4 | Perry Mason | 15:12 Curragh | Backed / Course | 18/1 to 10/1 · 3 wins from 9 at course |
| 5 | Briery Rose | 14:07 Huntingdon | Backed / Jockey | 20/1 to 12/1 · Sheppard 12 from 59 at Huntingdon |
| 6 | Orderly | 16:10 Carlisle | Backed / Jockey | 18/1 to 11/1 · McMenamin 42 from 227 at Carlisle |
| 7 | To Chase A Dream | 14:23 Carlisle | Napped / Course | 2 naps · 2 wins from 3 at course |
| 8 | Keops Des Bordes | 13:13 Carlisle | Napped / Jockey | 2 naps · Skelton 20 from 91 at Carlisle |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, We’re Red And Blue:
“We’re Red And Blue is the only runner with four signals today, and you can see why. It’s been backed from 11/4 to 6/5, two tipsters have napped it, the stable’s in form and Jonjo O’Neill Jr has a good record at Carlisle. It won on its only previous visit here as well. What gives me pause is the 0 at the end of its form figures, and the fact that Joltin N Jiving has been backed from 12/1 to 5/1 in the same race. It’s the one to beat on what we know, but after a move like that most of the value has gone.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. We’re Red And Blue · 12:38 Carlisle
We’re Red And Blue has been backed from 11/4 to 6/5 for the PricedUp Bet Gordon Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, with 19 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by Templegate in The Sun and Andrew Mount in the Racing and Football Outlook. Jonjo and A J O’Neill train the six-year-old, and the stable has had 8 winners from 28 runners over the past 14 days, a 29% strike rate. Jonjo O’Neill Jr rides at 11st 5lb and has 24 winners from 93 rides at Carlisle since 2010, a 26% strike rate. We’re Red And Blue won on its only previous start at the course. Walking On A Dream is the top-rated runner in the field of six on 142.
2. Theatre Tom · 15:40 Worcester
The only qualifier with three signals and no market move. Theatre Tom is napped by BGTips.co.uk, the best nap tipster over the past 28 days with 16 winners from 27, and by sportinglife.com. The price has shortened slightly from 6/4 to 11/8 for the CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Novices’ Handicap Hurdle, but no bookmaker has cut by 20%. Olly Murphy has had 7 winners from 28 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate, and Sean Bowen has 106 winners from 465 rides at Worcester since 2010, a 23% strike rate. The seven-year-old carries 11st 13lb and is rated 110, a pound behind I Love You Sivola. Its last run ended in a fall.
3. Obsessedwithyou · 13:48 Carlisle
Obsessedwithyou has been backed from 14/1 to 11/2 for the Listed PricedUp Boosted Prices Daily Houghton Mares’ Chase, with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Sam Twiston-Davies rides and has 22 winners from 88 rides at Carlisle since 2010, a 25% strike rate. Jamie Snowden trains the seven-year-old, who carries 11st 2lb and is rated 136. Panic Attack is a non-runner, which leaves four runners, with Paggane top-rated on 160 and Apple Away on 151.
4. Perry Mason · 15:12 Curragh
Perry Mason has been cut from 18/1 to 10/1 for the Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap over a mile, with 18 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and has won three of nine starts at the Curragh. Maurice Andrew Ahern trains the five-year-old and Leigh Roche rides at 9st 9lb. Perry Mason is rated 100 in a field of 22, where Harana and Eastwatch top the ratings on 108.
5. Briery Rose · 14:07 Huntingdon
Briery Rose has been backed from 20/1 to 12/1 for the CopyBet Follow Us On X Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Stan Sheppard rides and has 12 winners from 59 rides at Huntingdon since 2010, a 20% strike rate. Henry Daly trains the six-year-old, who carries 11st 0lb and is rated 94 in a field of four, where Little Lady Rock is top-rated on 118.
6. Orderly · 16:10 Carlisle
Orderly has been cut from 18/1 to 11/1 for the PricedUp Bet Open National Hunt Flat Race, with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Danny McMenamin rides and has 42 winners from 227 rides at Carlisle since 2010, a 19% strike rate. Ann Hamilton trains the four-year-old, who has no form figures on the racecard and carries 11st 2lb in a field of seven.
7. To Chase A Dream · 14:23 Carlisle
To Chase A Dream is napped by The Data Detective at RaceiQ and by Tipman Tips, and has won two of three starts at Carlisle. The price has shortened from 4/1 to 11/4 for the PricedUp Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle, but only 9 of 23 bookmakers have cut by 20%, short of the market signal. John Dawson trains the seven-year-old and Conor O’Farrell rides at 10st 6lb. To Chase A Dream is rated 148, a pound behind Wise Eagle, who has two naps of its own.
8. Keops Des Bordes · 13:13 Carlisle
Keops Des Bordes is napped by Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail and Mercury in the Daily Post, and its price has held at 5/6 for the PricedUp Now With Best Odds Guaranteed Novices’ Hurdle. Harry Skelton rides and has 20 winners from 91 rides at Carlisle since 2010, a 22% strike rate. Dan Skelton trains the six-year-old, who carries 11st 0lb in a field of eight.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Saturday 31 October, and their picks today. Topspeed in the Racing Post has a higher strike rate than Jeffrey Ross and Computeform, with 5 winners from 11, but has not made the 20-nap minimum:
- BGTips.co.uk: 16 winners from 27 naps (59%). Today: Theatre Tom, 15:40 Worcester.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Cushendun, 13:13 Carlisle.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Love Me Tender, 14:50 Cork.
The most-napped horse of the day is Hidden Mountain in the maiden hurdle at 15:05 Worcester, with four naps. Its price has shortened from 8/11 to 8/15, but only two bookmakers have cut by 20%, so naps are its only signal and it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Sky Captain (14:37 Curragh): 30/1 to 11/1, a 62% move.
- Knickerbockerglory (14:23 Carlisle): 28/1 to 11/1, a 59% move.
- Sumatran Tiger (15:17 Huntingdon): 28/1 to 11/1, a 57% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Saturday’s Hot List had nine runners and three of them won. Trustintimes (11/4) led inside the final 110 yards of the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle at Ascot and kept on well, Ibtekar (10/11) made all to win comfortably at Newmarket, and Pic d’Orhy (10/11) went clear from two out to take the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby easily. List topper La Conquiere (5/4) challenged at the last and was beaten a neck by Kateira at Wetherby, and Platin Moon (11/2) was third at Ayr, beaten around nine lengths. Haas Boy (4/1) was seventh at Ascot, beaten around ten and a half lengths, Califet En Vol (5/2) sixth in the Regal Encore Handicap Chase, beaten around 26 lengths after losing a shoe, and Top Coeur (20/1) seventh in the Grundon Novices’ Handicap Hurdle, also beaten around 26 lengths. Hammer The Hammer did not run, as the Southwell meeting was abandoned after the third race because of fog. A £1 win bet on each of the other eight at starting price returned £7.57 from £8 staked, a loss of £0.43. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:18 GMT on Sunday 1 November and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 18 October to 31 October; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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