The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Starmade in the 19:30 at Wolverhampton, the only runner with three signals. The price has shortened from 6/1 to 9/4 with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting, three tipsters have made it their nap, and Rossa Ryan has 198 winners from 975 rides at Wolverhampton since 2010.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Six runners qualify today, and the jockey’s record at the course is one of the signals for all six. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starmade | 19:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Napped / Jockey | 6/1 to 9/4 · 3 naps · Rossa Ryan 198 winners from 975 at course since 2010 |
| 2 | Groundsman | 17:00 Wolverhampton | Backed / Jockey | 25/1 to 12/1 · Billy Loughnane 172 winners from 864 at course since 2010 |
| 3 | So Proud | 15:48 Warwick | Backed / Jockey | 10/1 to 6/1 · Jonjo O’Neill Jr 22 winners from 112 at course since 2010 |
| 4 | American Empire | 15:39 Sedgefield | Backed / Jockey | 15/2 to 9/2 · Theo Gillard 19 winners from 94 at course since 2010 |
| 5 | Berry Edge | 14:03 Warwick | Napped / Jockey | 5 naps · Harry Skelton 130 winners from 548 at course since 2010 |
| 6 | Bon Bon Fizz | 13:45 Fairyhouse | Napped / Jockey | 3 naps · Jack Kennedy 84 winners from 460 at course since 2010 |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Starmade:
“Starmade is the only runner with three signals today. It’s been backed from 6/1 to 9/4, three tipsters have made it their nap and Rossa Ryan wins a fifth of his rides at Wolverhampton, so the support isn’t hard to explain. My doubt is the price rather than the horse. It’s a 13-runner handicap, the form figures end in an 8 and it’s rated 93, five pounds below Tan Rapido, so 9/4 doesn’t leave much in hand. I can see it winning, but most of the value has already gone.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Starmade · 19:30 Wolverhampton
Starmade has been backed from 6/1 to 9/4 for the Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap over six furlongs, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. Three tipsters have made it their nap: Spotlight and On The Nose in the Racing Post, and Rob Wright in The Times. Rossa Ryan rides and has 198 winners from 975 rides at Wolverhampton since 2010, a 20% strike rate. Ed Dunlop trains the three-year-old, who carries 9st 9lb and is rated 93 in a field of 13 headed by Tan Rapido on 98.
2. Groundsman · 17:00 Wolverhampton
Groundsman has been cut from 25/1 to 12/1 for the second division of the AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap over seven furlongs, with 23 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Mark Loughnane trains and Billy Loughnane rides; the jockey has 172 winners from 864 rides at Wolverhampton since 2010, a 20% strike rate. The four-year-old is the top-rated runner in the field of 12 on 73, carries 9st 8lb and has won one of three starts at the course.
3. So Proud · 15:48 Warwick
So Proud has shortened from 10/1 to 6/1 for the Alex & Edward Alder Handicap Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs, with 17 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Jonjo O’Neill Jr rides for Jonjo and AJ O’Neill and has 22 winners from 112 rides at Warwick since 2010, a 20% strike rate. The five-year-old carries 11st 7lb and is rated 112, three pounds below Katarcice on 115. The race also includes Ballymoreen, napped five times, whose price has drifted from 9/4 to 11/4.
4. American Empire · 15:39 Sedgefield
American Empire has been backed from 15/2 to 9/2 for the Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle over two miles and three furlongs, with 19 of 24 bookmakers cutting. Theo Gillard rides for Donald McCain and has 19 winners from 94 rides at Sedgefield since 2010, a 20% strike rate. The six-year-old carries 11st 7lb and is rated 101, a pound behind Luckie Devil, and has run twice at Sedgefield without winning.
5. Berry Edge · 14:03 Warwick
Berry Edge has five naps, the joint most of the day: Ratings Hub at attheraces.com, Templegate in The Sun, Luke Tucker in the Cambridge Evening News, Ben Morgan at Racing Ahead and Garry Owen in the Daily Record. The price has barely moved, from 11/4 to 5/2, and no bookmaker has cut it by 20% or more, so there is no market signal. The second signal is the rider: Harry Skelton has 130 winners from 548 rides at Warwick since 2010, a 24% strike rate. Dan Skelton trains the eight-year-old, who carries 11st 5lb and is rated 108. Blue Sky Dreaming and Lucy The Wire head the ratings on 111, and Blue Sky Dreaming has been backed from 11/1 to 11/2.
6. Bon Bon Fizz · 13:45 Fairyhouse
Bon Bon Fizz is napped by Dean Kilbryde in the East Anglian Daily Times, John Arnold in the Norwich Evening News and Sam Hardy in the Weekender. The price has shortened only slightly, from 5/6 to 8/11, with two of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more. Jack Kennedy rides and has 84 winners from 460 rides at Fairyhouse since 2010, an 18% strike rate. Gordon Elliott trains the six-year-old, who carries 11st 12lb and is the top-rated runner in a field of 15 on 123, 11 pounds clear of Poets Rambler, the Topspeed nap in the Racing Post.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Monday 2 November, and their picks today. Jeffrey Ross and Computeform are level in second:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 27 naps (52%). Today: Loriko, 12:18 Warwick.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Mehen, 17:30 Wolverhampton.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Ballymoreen, 15:48 Warwick.
The most-napped horses of the day are Berry Edge and Ballymoreen, with five naps each. Berry Edge is fifth on the list. Ballymoreen, Computeform’s pick, would have a second signal through Harry Cobden’s record at Warwick, but its price has drifted from 9/4 to 11/4, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Templar Knight (13:02 Lingfield): 14/1 to 9/2, a 63% move.
- Sadies Diamond (14:12 Lingfield): 10/1 to 10/3, a 61% move.
- Barachiel (20:30 Wolverhampton): 7/2 to 5/4, a 50% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Monday’s Hot List had nine runners and two of them won. Walk In The West (7/1) was held up in the novices’ handicap chase at Plumpton, led in the closing stages and went clear on the run-in to win by two and three-quarter lengths, and Synchronist (5/2) made most and just held on by a nose at Southwell. Three more finished second: Wosta (1/3), beaten a length at Wolverhampton, Serious Look (17/2), beaten a length and a half at Wolverhampton, and Chinese Whispers (11/8), beaten a length and a quarter in the bumper at Southwell. Uncle Remus (7/4) led until the last at Plumpton and finished fourth, beaten nearly nine lengths, Two Commanders (2/1) was fifth at Wolverhampton, beaten just under four lengths, Quai Louis (5/2) was hampered at the start and finished 11th of 12 at Chelmsford, beaten around eight lengths, and Tommie Beau (6/1) was pulled up at Plumpton. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £11.50 from £9 staked, a profit of £2.50. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:22 GMT on Tuesday 3 November and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 20 October to 2 November; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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