The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Red Curry in the 15:30 at Kempton, the only runner with three signals among nine qualifiers. The price has shortened from 5/1 to 9/4 with 21 of 22 bookmakers cutting, it is the nap of Jeffrey Ross, one of the top three nap tipsters over the past 28 days, and James Doyle has 208 winners from 1,066 rides at Kempton since 2010.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Nine runners qualify today, five of them at Chepstow and four at Kempton. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Curry | 15:30 Kempton | Backed / Napped / Jockey | 5/1 to 9/4 · Jeffrey Ross nap · James Doyle 208 winners from 1,066 at course since 2010 |
| 2 | Dance Ifyoucan | 13:25 Chepstow | Backed / Jockey | 50/1 to 20/1 · Ben Jones 25 winners from 128 at course since 2010 |
| 3 | Uncle Cc | 16:10 Chepstow | Backed / Trainer | 5/1 to 11/4 · Tizzard 11 winners from 30 in 14 days |
| 4 | Best Trump | 13:58 Chepstow | Backed / Jockey | 14/1 to 17/2 · Harry Cobden 71 winners from 313 at course since 2010 |
| 5 | Heathcliff | 17:00 Kempton | Backed / Course | 16/1 to 10/1 · 3 wins from 11 at course since 2010 |
| 6 | Corner Forward | 15:40 Chepstow | Backed / Jockey | 10/3 to 2/1 · Harry Cobden 71 winners from 313 at course since 2010 |
| 7 | Persian Spirit | 17:30 Kempton | Napped / Trainer | 2 naps · Bethell 6 winners from 19 in 14 days |
| 8 | Light Of The Stars | 16:00 Kempton | Napped / Jockey | BGTips.co.uk nap · William Buick 232 winners from 942 at course since 2010 |
| 9 | Red Acres Max | 12:51 Chepstow | Napped / Trainer | 4 naps · Snowden 6 winners from 19 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw picks out Best Trump, fourth on today’s list, as his choice:
“Best Trump is the one I want from today’s list. It’s the top-rated runner in the second division of the maiden hurdle on 102, four pounds clear of Potter, and the market has come for it from 14/1 to 17/2, with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Harry Cobden has 71 winners from 313 rides at Chepstow since 2010, so the booking backs that up. The form figures, a nought and a five, won’t win any beauty contests, but the rating says it has the beating of most of this field, and 17/2 still looks too big for the best horse on paper.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Red Curry · 15:30 Kempton
Red Curry has been backed from 5/1 to 9/4 for the first division of the Unibet/British EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes over a mile, with 21 of 22 bookmakers cutting. It is the nap of Jeffrey Ross in the Sporting Times, who has 13 winners from the last 28 naps. James Doyle rides and has 208 winners from 1,066 rides at Kempton since 2010, a 20% strike rate. John and Thady Gosden train the two-year-old, who finished fifth on its only previous start, also at Kempton, carries 9st 2lb and is the highest-rated runner in the field of 14 on 83, 12 pounds clear of Cloak Of Power.
2. Dance Ifyoucan · 13:25 Chepstow
Dance Ifyoucan has the biggest market move on the list, cut from 50/1 to 20/1 for the first division of the LSL Racing “National Hunt” Maiden Hurdle over two miles, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Ben Jones rides and has 25 winners from 128 rides at Chepstow since 2010, a 20% strike rate. Kayley Woollacott trains the five-year-old, who carries 11st 4lb and has no form figures on our racecard. Stagge Hyll heads the ratings in the field of 13 on 110.
3. Uncle Cc · 16:10 Chepstow
Uncle Cc has been backed from 5/1 to 11/4 for the Dunraven Open National Hunt Flat Race over two miles, with 17 of 22 bookmakers cutting. The stable provides the second signal: Joe Tizzard has had 11 winners from 30 runners over the past 14 days, a 37% strike rate. The four-year-old carries 11st 2lb in a field of 15, and no jockey is listed in our data yet.
4. Best Trump · 13:58 Chepstow
Best Trump has shortened from 14/1 to 17/2 for the second division of the LSL Racing “National Hunt” Maiden Hurdle over two miles, with 22 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Harry Cobden rides and has 71 winners from 313 rides at Chepstow since 2010, a 23% strike rate. Jonjo and AJ O’Neill train the five-year-old, who carries 11st 4lb and is the top-rated runner in the field of 12 on 102, four pounds clear of Potter.
5. Heathcliff · 17:00 Kempton
Heathcliff has been cut from 16/1 to 10/1 for the Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap, a Class 2 race over seven furlongs, with 18 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and has won three of 11 starts at Kempton since 2010. It is also the nap of Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail. James Fanshawe trains the five-year-old and Daniel Muscutt rides at 9st 9lb. Heathcliff is rated 113 in a field of ten, three pounds below Cosi Bello and Valvano on 116; Cosi Bello has two naps.
6. Corner Forward · 15:40 Chepstow
Corner Forward has been backed from 10/3 to 2/1 for the Floyds Turfcare & Weed Solutions Handicap Hurdle over two miles, three furlongs and 100 yards, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and RP Ratings in the Racing Post makes it their nap. Harry Cobden rides and has 71 winners from 313 rides at Chepstow since 2010, a 23% strike rate. Anthony Honeyball trains the five-year-old, who carries 11st 10lb and shares the top rating of 104 with Highbury Hill in a field of 18. Agent Argylle, in the same race, has been backed from 25/1 to 10/1.
7. Persian Spirit · 17:30 Kempton
Persian Spirit is napped by Postdata in the Racing Post and Rory Paddock in the Jersey Evening Post. The price has shortened from 11/4 to 13/8 for the Try Unibet’s New Racing Bet Builder Fillies’ Handicap over six furlongs, with 16 of 23 bookmakers cutting, just short of the 30% move needed for a market signal. The stable provides the second signal: Edward Bethell has had 6 winners from 19 runners over the past 14 days, a 32% strike rate. Billy Loughnane rides the four-year-old at 9st 9lb. Persian Spirit has won one of three starts at Kempton since 2010 and is rated 86, two pounds below Queue Dos in a field of seven.
8. Light Of The Stars · 16:00 Kempton
Light Of The Stars is the nap of BGTips.co.uk, which has the best nap strike rate over the past 28 days with 14 winners from 27. The price has shortened only slightly, from 5/4 to 10/11, for the second division of the Unibet/British EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes over a mile, and no bookmaker has cut it by 20% or more. The second signal is the rider: William Buick has 232 winners from 942 rides at Kempton since 2010, a 25% strike rate. Charlie Appleby trains the two-year-old, who carries 9st 2lb and has no form figures on our racecard. You’re Sensational heads the ratings in the field of 13 on 76.
9. Red Acres Max · 12:51 Chepstow
Red Acres Max is the most-napped horse of the day, with four: The Brigadier at punterslounge.com, Templegate in The Sun, Lambourn in the Racing Post and Mirror Online. The price has barely moved, from 5/4 to 11/10, for the Free Tips On attheraces.com Maiden Hurdle over two miles, three furlongs and 100 yards, with two of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more. The stable provides the second signal: Jamie Snowden has had 6 winners from 19 runners over the past 14 days, a 32% strike rate. Gavin Sheehan rides the five-year-old at 11st 4lb in a field of 15. In the same race, Pitch And Toss is the nap of Computeform, one of the top three tipsters over the past 28 days.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Tuesday 3 November, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 27 naps (52%). Today: Light Of The Stars, 16:00 Kempton.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 14 winners from 28 naps (50%). Today: Pitch And Toss, 12:51 Chepstow.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Red Curry, 15:30 Kempton.
Red Curry tops the list and Light Of The Stars is eighth. Pitch And Toss has shortened from 11/2 to 4/1 but has no second signal, so it misses the list. The most-napped horse of the day is Red Acres Max, ninth on the list with four naps. Gingerbred in the 12:20 at Chepstow has three naps and Joe Tizzard’s stable form behind it, but the price has drifted from 4/5 to 10/11, so it misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Rich Belief (14:15 Musselburgh): 12/1 to 10/3, a 67% move.
- Agent Argylle (15:40 Chepstow): 25/1 to 10/1, a 58% move.
- Karton Plein (15:05 Chepstow): 9/1 to 7/2, a 57% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Tuesday’s Hot List had six runners and none of them won. List topper Starmade (5/4) came from towards the rear and ran on in the final 110 yards to finish third at Wolverhampton, beaten about a length by Woodstock. Berry Edge (9/4) moved into third before two out at Warwick but found no extra on the run-in and finished fourth, beaten 12 lengths. Bon Bon Fizz (7/4) weakened from two out to finish sixth at Fairyhouse, beaten around 18 lengths, and American Empire (5/1) weakened after two out to finish sixth at Sedgefield, beaten around 19 lengths. So Proud (9/1) was sixth of the seven finishers at Warwick, beaten around 26 lengths, and Groundsman (14/1) weakened from two furlongs out and finished last of 11 at Wolverhampton, beaten around 11 lengths. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned nothing from £6 staked, a loss of £6. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:15 GMT on Wednesday 4 November and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 21 October to 3 November; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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