One of the highlights of the early part of the jumps season, the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown has seen the likes of Lossiemouth, State Man, Faugheen and Hurricane Fly on the honours board, and that’s only the start of Willie Mullins’ domination of this event.
I’ve looked at the last 25 and last 10 renewals to find out what has been a long-standing trend and what might be changing.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to runners aged 5 or 6
- Most likely to come from the top 3 in the betting
- Likely to hold an OR of 160 or higher, with allowances considered
- Probably hasn’t run this season, and probably last ran at 2m1f or shorter
- Will have raced at Punchestown and is likely to be a multiple course winner
- Probably has a career win at 2m3f or further
- Expected to already be a Grade 1 winner
- Willie Mullins dominates this race, but he’s not profitable to follow blind, even with his first string
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 6yo – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Five and six-year-olds dominate this race across both periods, and while there has been a plethora of winning ages this century, there hasn’t been such a wide range in the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
Favourites are the most successful market position but are slight loss-makers across both periods measured. Most, if not all, winners come from the top 3 in the betting, but that’s also not profitable blind from the last 10 renewals, though it shows a small profit from the last 25 renewals.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 160+ (including mares’ allowance) – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners with the highest OR in the field – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
It’s profitable to back all runners who hold an OR of 160 or higher, including the mares’ allowance, from the last 25 renewals, but it’s a loss-maker in the last 10 renewals.
In the last 25 years, there have been 14 winners who held the highest Official Rating in the race, and following them blind shows a 19% ROI to SP. Eight of those were trained by Willie Mullins, but if you were to only follow the highest-rated runner when trained by him, you’d be showing a -3% ROI. Conversely, backing the highest-rated runner when they’re not trained by Willie Mullins shows a 42% ROI, but has only found one winner since 2010.
LAST TIME OUT
- Has run this season – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Won last time out – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran at Punchestown or Down Royal – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Last ran at 2m1f or shorter – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
While most winners last raced at 2m1f or shorter, you’d lose money backing those blind. However, if you backed all runners who raced beyond 2m1f last time out, you’d be showing an 8% ROI from the last 25 renewals, but it’s a heavy loss-maker from the last 10 renewals.
If you add in an SP ceiling of 7/2 to running at 2m1f or shorter last time out, you can make it profitable blind across the last 10 renewals for a 19% ROI, although it doesn’t make money across the last 25 renewals.
Most winners hadn’t raced this season, and of those who had, Down Royal is a positive prep race; otherwise, Punchestown or possibly Aintree is a good indicator.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Punchestown – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Punchestown – 20/24 (83%) & 7/9 (78%)
- Winners who had run MORE than twice at Punchestown – 14/25 (56%) & 3/10 (30%)
Given the stature of this race and the Punchestown Festival, it’s not surprising most winners had been here before, and more than once. When you look at horses who had raced here three or more times, though, it becomes profitable blind across the last 25 years, showing an 11% ROI before even considering wins at the track. When adding in a course win for those who had raced here three or more times, the ROI increases to 31%. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work for the last 10 renewals and, in fact, shows a heavy -61% ROI.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at 2m3f and beyond – 19/25 (76%) & 6/10 (60%)
Given the calibre of winners of this race, the distances they’ve raced over don’t need to be solely around the minimum trip, and most winners had won at 2m3f or beyond. Following those blind alone shows a 6% ROI in the last 25 renewals, increasing to a 12% ROI if the lower bar is raised to 2m3½f, then increasing again to 16% if raising the bottom line to 2m4f.
Again, though, it’s a trend that’s turned, given the last 10 renewals have had six winners ticking the box but 20 have tried, making this a -50% ROI loss-maker blind.
GRADE 1 FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 14/25 (56%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had already won more than one Grade 1 – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had already won more than two Grade 1s – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had already won more than three Grade 1s – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had already won more than four Grade 1s – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had already won more than five Grade 1s – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
All winners in the last 10 renewals had won a Grade 1, and five of those were multiple Grade 1 winners with five or more to their name. All of that, though, is a loss-maker to follow blind, even when looking at winners with six or more prior Grade 1 wins.
In the last 25 years, if you looked at winners with six or more Grade 1 wins, you’d show an 88% ROI, a 78% ROI for five or more Grade 1 wins, a 107% ROI for four or more Grade 1 wins, a 30% ROI for three or more and a 10% ROI for two or more.
TRAINER
- Trained by Willie Mullins – 13/25 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
Willie Mullins has been dominant in most National Hunt races, but this is certainly one he holds a strong record in, even by his standards. Backing all his runners blind won’t make you money, though.
Of his 13 winners this century, 10 were the stable’s first string (judged by market position), but they show a very small 12p loss if backed blind. Six of his eight winners from the last 10 renewals were the first string, but again, they show a small 71p loss if backed blind.
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