Popularly referred to as the “Arc“, it is the world’s most prestigious all-aged horse race, and this will be the last year the race excludes Geldings. The winner’s list is purely a roll of honour of the best miler and half horses in Europe, and this should be expanded with the inclusion of Geldings going forward. It is by far the richest race in Europe and is worth almost £2.5M to the winner.
I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals this century with a comparison to the last 10, to see what it typically takes to land this globally recognised prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Won’t be older than 5 but most likely to be aged 3 or 4
- BIG preference to being drawn in the bottom half although a strong fancy can defy this
- Has recorded an RPR of 120+ and recorded their highest RPR this season unless already an Arc winner
- Expected to have run at and won at 12-furlongs before now
- Preferably won last time out and raced at about either 10 or 12-furlongs
- Not required to have run at Longchamp but if they have, they should have won here too
- Will have 3 or more runs and 2 or more wins this season plus has won 50% or more of their races
- Should be a previous Group 1 winner and likely a multiple Group 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 13/25 (52%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 4yo – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
All winners this century were aged 3-5 and while 3-year-olds do receive a 6lbs weight-for-age allowance, it’s the 4-year-olds who have performed at the highest win-rate in the last decade but 3 and 4-year-olds have consistently produced 80% or more of the winners over the long and short term.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Single-figures – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
With around 70% of winners across both periods being single-figure priced runners, you don’t often get a shock winner of this race however last years winner was a 166/10 (16/1) winner who won when the ground ended up very soft.
The biggest priced winner for some time was 72/1 Torquator Tasso from Germany, but his win came on very testing ground too. Ultimately, respect the market and only look for a shock on testing ground (which we’re unlikely to get this year).
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (20%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of the Arc will come from the bottom half of the draw and 17 of the 19 winners from the last 25 renewals came from no higher than stall 6 (the other two came from stall 8).
Of the 6 winners who won from the top half of the draw, 5 were in the Top 3 of the betting and 4 of those were sent off at 9/2 or shorter.
Ultimately, a very good horse can win from any draw, but preference would always be to those drawn lower
SEASON AND CAREER HIGH RPR’S
- Winners with a career RPR of 120 or more – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with a career RPR of 125 or more – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who posted career high RPR that season – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
I’ve used RPR’s for this rating section as with the race being run in France there isn’t really another easily accessible rating system across countries that can be used.
All bar three winners had recorded an RPR in excess of 120 and that trio were all big priced winners with last years’ Daryz recording at 119 RPR, so right on the cusp.
The two winners who did NOT record their career best RPR’s that season were both previous winners of the race.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Placed – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Group 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Abt 10F – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 12f – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 21 days ago exactly – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 42 days or less – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
You’d expect the horse to have won last time out, and they must have raced at either 10 or 12 furlongs, with a slight preference for the latter.
It’s also important to respect horses who ran 21 days ago in Longchamp for their trials meeting or if not respect runners coming from the Irish Champion Stakes.
COURSE FORM (Excluded 2016 & 2017 during redevelopments)
- Winners who had RUN at Longchamp – 15/23 (65%) & 5/8 (63%)
- Winners who had WON at Longchamp – 14/15 (93%) & 5/5 (100%)
More than half of winners of the Arc had already run at Longchamp and all bar one horse who had ran here had won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 12f – 23/25 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at about 12f – 21/23 (91%) & 8/8 (100%)
Only last year’s winner and Ace Impact in 2023 (both 3-year-olds) had NOT already raced at 1m4f and all but two of those had won at the trip too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 14/25 (56%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Unbeaten this season – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 0 wins this season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (00%)
- 1 win this season – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2 wins this season – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 4+ wins this season – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
The only winner this century who had not won a race that season was Treve when she came back to retain her title in 2014. The only winner who didn’t have 2 or more runs this century was Enable on her second win.
The overall profile to look for is a horse with 3 or more runs and 2 or more wins but, if looking to find all possible winners then if they’ve already won the Arc we’ll forgive them. Also, iff they’ve had just the 2 runs, then they must be unbeaten, as were both Sakhee in 2001 and Alpinista in 2022.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won 2+ Group 1’s – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Solemia in 2012 and Daryz in 2025 are the only winners to have not already won a Group 1 and most winners of the Arc, especially in recent years had 2 or more Group 1 wins to their name before now.
Commercial notice: This article on GG.co.uk contains affiliate links. The offers we promote come from operators that we trust and our experts have first-hand experience dealing with. If you open an account through one of these affiliate links then GG will earn revenue. However, we ensure that the money earned goes back into improving and enhancing our coverage of horse racing and other sports, as we look to provide an excellent service to our growing audience.