With another weekend of racing to reflect on, Matty Sutcliffe reviews key defeats for No Drama This End and Kopek Des Bordes, as well as a long look forward at a flat racing plot.
More Drama This End
The summer period can feel like a year for National Hunt trainers, who spend the season waiting for the return of their stars to the track to comfort them in the freezing months.
For Paul Nicholls, the wait for No Drama This End must have felt like an age. Last December, he said he had waited a long time to have a classy one since the likes of Denman, and that No Drama This End could be of that ilk after winning the Grade 2 Winter Novices’ Hurdle.
Had he justified the eventual 8/11 SP in Saturday’s Rising Stars Novices’ Chase at Aintree, he would have appropriately put Paul Nicholls on a par with Martin Pipe’s record. However, it failed to come to fruition, as he finished last of the four.
The performance had me perplexed in the aftermath. Paul Nicholls was adamant beforehand that he’d improve for the run, but you would have expected him to be in the shake-up regardless. Then, with the benefit of hindsight, you look back through the hurdling form and think: well, should we have expected better?
His hurdling debut saw him reverse the Champion Bumper form with Heads Up, but that rival largely disappointed thereafter, finishing the season rated 134. The third, fourth and fifth finished the season rated 127, 129 and 133.
In the Winter Novices’, the second pulled up next time out and the third is now rated 126. I don’t think there’s any doubting that the Challow performance was smart, and the second franked it in the Turners to a degree, as did the fourth, who won a Grade 2 next time out.
No Drama This End had his bubble burst entirely in the Turners and finished the season with a win in Listed company. With hindsight applied, the overall form isn’t particularly strong, but you can only beat what’s in front of you, and Denman didn’t beat much in his novice hurdle career either.
He had looked to be going strongly until three out on Saturday, where he was long and took what looked to be a tired leap, followed by two more. I certainly wouldn’t be giving up on him, and the winner was impressive, but I would perhaps place the Denman comparisons on the back burner for now.
Trainers are habitual creatures – where does Naas reappearance leave Kopek Des Bordes?
No Drama This End wasn’t the only chasing disappointment at the weekend, as the highly regarded Kopek Des Bordes blotted his copybook again. Sent off the 1/4 favourite at Naas, he lacked the gears to cope with Irish Panther.
Trainers are creatures of habit, and certain races are pinned early in the season when establishing a pecking order for March, which can obviously change in an instant. Running Kopek Des Bordes this early at Naas was interesting. Willie Mullins has won the race twice in the last ten renewals, with only Dinoblue going on to win at Cheltenham, or achieve much of note for that matter.
Outside of his winners in the contest, he’s sent eight here. The most notable was Footpad, rated 166 after a stellar novice season, but he fell and would win just once more for Mullins, in a Listed contest at Thurles.
Sir Gerhard was another faller in the race, and Gentleman De Mee unseated when the 4/7 favourite in 2022. The Naas contest isn’t a race in which Mullins has been particularly successful, nor has it produced particularly successful sorts at the top level.
If following the trend, where does that leave Kopek Des Bordes in the Closutton rankings? The performance wasn’t entirely disappointing, as he settled better than he had last season, and Mullins said in the aftermath that he needed the run. It might have been the latter, but it’s also worth considering that Mullins hasn’t released many ‘proper’ ones of late in the Barberstown Castle Chase.
November Handicap – Have we already seen the Ebor winner?
I’ve long scrutinised the fixture scheduling of staging valuable Flat meetings just as the National Hunt season begins to ramp up. Form on Champions Day is often skew-whiff, let alone at Doncaster.
The form of the November Handicap has rarely held up the following season, unsurprisingly, given it’s largely a race targeted by connections with soft-ground types. It does seem criminal to even consider the Flat season, let alone the Ebor in August, but I think Alfred Wincham deserves a strong mention.
I couldn’t quite believe how he’d won at York, nor could the handicapper, as he gave him a 13lb hike in the weights. Remarkably, and following strong market support, Alfred Wincham belied the rise and took the November Handicap eased down under Oisin Orr.
A Godolphin cast-off from the family of Fanny Logan and Hunters Light, he’s clearly bred to be talented. As it turns out, he was an inebriated purchase by connections, but it certainly proved a successful decision.
He’s likely to be raised another 6-8lb, and while the November Handicap form has rarely come to fruition, he’s the type to only improve with age and racing, and further champagne may be in order at York.
Eye-catcher of the week – Sans Bruit, Saturday 13:15 Aintree
Paul Nicholls has campaigned Sans Bruit for one day in April in each of the last three seasons, twice successfully. However, he suggested Sans Bruit has been prepped much earlier this season, and he very nearly prevailed, as he was just touched off by Javert Allen at Aintree.
A minor rise in the weights will follow, but he’s very well handicapped on recent form, and I’d expect him to be winning shortly.