Top Tipster Andrew Mount aims to begin a new month with a bang, and has his selections for Thursday’s racing.
Back his selection with Sky Bet‘s new customer offer of £20 in Free Bets when you deposit and bet £10.
Posted: 5:15pm November 2nd (Odds correct at time of writing)
NEWBURY 1.55
CERTAINLY RED – 1pt win (9/1 generally)
I wrote up CERTAINLY RED after his 2m4f Wincanton second to odds-on favourite Danny Kirwan in January, suggesting that he’s improve when returned to 3m, as both his hurdle wins came over that sort of trip. He won over 3m at Kempton a couple of runs later and I’m slightly surprised to see him available at such a big price today as he has a solid record on his seasonal debuts – finishing second at 33-1 to Shishkin in 2018/2019, second at 18-1 on 2020/2021 and winning at 11-2 last term. The son of Midnight Legend enjoys good or faster going, with his top four RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) coming on such a surface and with his five rivals likely to ensure a decent gallop, the race could be run to suit.
CHELMSFORD 6.00
HOWZAK – 1pt win (9/2 Bet365, 4/1 generally)
EXPERT OPINION – 1pt win (11/1 Paddy Powe/Betfair, 10/1 generally)
SHOW ME A SUNSET – 0.5pt e/w (12/1 generally)
HOWZAK (stall 2 of 10) did this column a good turn at Kempton 16 days ago, making all to score at 9-4 (from 11-4). His record from September to November now reads 31112711 (5-8), with the third place at 33-1. On Polytrack only, his autumn record improves to 3111211 (5-7). The downside to the HOWZAK bet is the presence of other low-drawn pace angles Thank The Lord (stall 3) and Ornate (stall 4) as well as one or two others out wider, so I’m just going to have a small interest.
I’m also backing EXPERT OPINION (stall 8), who was very weak in the betting (12-1 from 7-1) when only eighth of 11 at Southwell on his recent debut for Mick Appleby. Luke Morris, on board that day, retains the ride and it looks significant that he’s quickly switched to Chelmsford, where he has recorded five of his top six RPRs (Racing Post Ratings). Morris will be aware of the possible pace burn-up and is likely to hold on to him in the early stages.
SHOW ME A SUNSET will appreciate the likely strong gallop and could also be worth a small interest now he’s joined Mike Murphy and Michael Keady from Robert Cowell’s yard. Cowell has had something of a shocking season and of the nine horses who have left his care since May, three won at the first time of asking for their new trainers. Two of those were trained by Murphy & Keady – Cooperation and Temple Bruer – and both won, at 5-1 and 7-2 respectively.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
NEWBURY 1.55
CERTAINLY RED – 1pt win (9/1 generally)
CHELMSFORD 6.00
HOWZAK – 1pt win (9/2 Bet365, 4/1 generally)
EXPERT OPINION – 1pt win (11/1 Paddy Powe/Betfair, 10/1 generally)
SHOW ME A SUNSET – 0.5pt e/w (12/1 generally)
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