Expert tipster Andrew Mount gives two selections for Tuesday’s racing, including one who Andrew has plenty of stats to support his pick.
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Posted: 5.29pm February 13th (Odds correct at time of writing)
4.30 Ayr – CUDDLY DUDDLY (1pt win – 9/2 generally)
Trainer Laura Morgan has a fantastic record with her handicap chasers, scoring with 71 of the 324 qualifiers (22% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £127.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners, based on their prices, was less than 54). She’s seven from 39 with chase debutants who go straight into handicap company, including 2-2 for jockey Patrick Cowley who takes the ride on CUDDLY DUDLEY this afternoon. The six-year-old has shown glimmers of ability over hurdles and progeny of his sire Kapgarde have a 17.3% strike-rate over fences in the past five years, compared to just 11.3% over hurdles. Backing the sire’s chase debutants in the same period would have found 14 winners from 71 bets for a profit of £15.38
8.00 Newcastle – WADACRE GRACE (1pt E/W – 4/1 generally)
My initial thought was to oppose WADACRE GRACE in this 7f handicap, as she’s been beaten at odds of 3-1jf, 5-4f and 11-4f in her last three starts and has only scored once from 13 career outings. However, her sole success came over course and distance, there’s no headwind forecast tonight, and this course and distance has actual seen prominent racers fare better than expected in recent months. It’s also interesting to see Oliver Stammers take over in the saddle, as he rides the straight course so well, especially those races over 5f-7f, scoring on 18 of his 105 mounts for a profit of £31.91 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
4.30 Ayr – CUDDLY DUDDLY (1pt win – 9/2 generally)
8.00 Newcastle – WADACRE GRACE (1pt E/W – 4/1 generally)