Expert tipster Andrew Mount gives two tips for Wednesday’s racing, both running on the Musselburgh card.
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Posted: 8.53am November 8th (Odds correct at time of writing)
12.35 Musselburgh – FAITHFULFLYER (1pt E/W – 5/1 Bet365, 9/2 generally)
Since the beginning of 2012, simply backing all Sandy Thomson-trained runners in November, December and January would have found 99 winners from 491 bets (20.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £264.98 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 80.35, A/E = 1.23). FAITHFULFLYER returned from wind surgery with a respectable third over an inadequate 2m trip at Kelso on last month’s reappearance and looks very interesting back up to 3m at Musselbugh. His record over course and distance reads 132 (1-3), with the defeats by a length and a half and half a length.
3.25 Musselburgh – CRACKING DESTINY (1pt win – 12/1 generally)
Fidelio Vallis heads the market at around 6-4 for this 2m handicap chase but he arrives here on the back of four straight defeats, and he tends to perform best in the spring. Since leaving France for Britain, his record from February to May reads 1111112 (6-7), compared to 7F242244 (0-8) outside of that period. All those autumn/winter defeats came for Paul Nicholls but he’s still worth opposing in the hope/expectation that the pattern will be repeated.
The one to take him on with is the outsider of five, CRACKING DESTINY, in the hope that the return to Musselburgh revitalises him after some lacklustre recent efforts. The ten-year-old’s last two wins have come at left-handed Stratford, but his other five wins have come on right-handed tracks and he has course figures of 122 (1-3). From left to right – 1st (won by ten lengths), 2nd (beaten by a head behind Nuts Well) and 2nd (found only Greaneteen too good). Admittedly, those runs were some time ago but, at the price, he’s worth chancing.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
12.35 Musselburgh – FAITHFULFLYER (1pt E/W – 5/1 Bet365, 9/2 generally)
3.25 Musselburgh – CRACKING DESTINY (1pt win – 12/1 generally)
Andrew Mount’s tip for Wednesday 8th November 2023.
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