With Aintree just around the corner (Thursday April 9th – Saturday April 11th) Andrew turns his attention to day two of the Grand National meeting.
Friday races (April 10th)
1.45 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2m4f)
Running style last time out
Nine of the last ten winners were ridden patiently in their prep race…
…and backing all 119 qualifiers returned a profit of £7.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£33.26 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).
Weight Rank
The top three in the weights have a poor recent record…
Last time out winners
Latest time out winners have a modest record, with only THEINVAL (8-1 in 2015) scoring in the past ten years…
Trainer nationality
Irish-trained runners have shown a profit…
Course last time out
Three winners prepped at Cheltenham but backing all 96 qualifiers returned a loss of £61.00 at SP.
2.20 – Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Running style
Four of the last ten winners made all…
Prep race
The last 12 winners all finished first or second at the Cheltenham festival and backing all the qualifiers returned a profit on 11 occasions (the exception came in 2017 when 8-13 shot MIGHT BITE beat 9-4 chance WHISPER into second)…
Those qualifiers who had finished first or second in a non-handicap at the Cheltenham festival were nine from 16 in the 12-year study period…
2.55 – Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Course last time out
Eight of the last ten winners prepped at Cheltenham and backing all 40 qualifiers (38 ran at the Cheltenham festival, two at earlier meetings) returned a profit of £7.85 at SP…
Trainer Nationality
It’s a 5 v 5 tie between British and Irish trainers but the Irish winners came from just 24 runners, as compared to 73 for the Brits…
3.30 – JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1)
Course last time out
Eight of the last ten winners prepped at Cheltenham, though backing all 44 qualifiers returned a loss of £2.23 at SP (+18.40 at BSP)…
Prep race
All ten winners prepped in Grade 1 company…
…those who didn’t were 0-20…
4.05 – Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Sire country of breeding
Those runners representing Irish sires are 0-77 across the past ten renewals…
Days since last run
All ten winners had raced within the past 44 days…
…those runners who were rested for 45 days or longer were 0-74…
Headgear
Seven of the last ten winners wore a tongue-tie…
…and backing all 122 qualifiers returned a profit of £20.50 at SP.
Running style
Seven of the last ten winners led or raced prominently…
Race distance last time out
Those who prepped over 3m or further were 0-71…
Race class last time out
Seven winners prepped in a Class 1 contest. Those who prepped in a Class 2 were 0-59.
4.40 – Oddschecker Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Age
Five-year-olds have a poor record, six-year-olds have won seven of the past ten renewals, though seven-year-olds have over-performed, winning three times against an expected score of 1.29…
5.15 – Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race)
Running style
Nine of the last ten winners of this 2m handicap hurdle were ridden patiently…
Race class last time out
Those who prepped in class 4 company had a poor record…
