In his latest column Andrew takes an in-depth look at the stats that matter for the first two days of the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
Tuesday, July 28
1.50 – Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap (1m2f, Class 2)
Weight rank
Since 2015 (11 renewals), top weights (including joint top weights) are 0-13…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners have a poor record…
Age
All 11 winners were 4yos (x7) or 5yos (x4)…
Days since last run
Those absent for 35 days or longer have a poor record in the 11-year study period…
System
Backing runners that were beaten last time out and last ran between one and 34 days ago would have hit ten of the 11 winners (from 103 bets) for a profit of £8.50…
Chuck out top weights and those aged six plus and figures improve to ten from 72 for a profit of £39.50…
Last year’s three qualifiers included the 6-1 winner Westridge and 28-1 runner-up Naqeeb for a computer straight forecast of £184.35 (Exacta paid £174.40).
2.25 – Coral Vintage Stakes (7f, Group 2)
Market position
Favourites have a good recent record…
Two of the beaten horses were second and the other was fifth (Dorset last year), making this a useful Placepot angle.
Running style
Front-runners are 0-12 in the past ten years and those who made the running last time out (GB/IRE only as I don’t have details for other jurisdictions in my database) were best avoided…
3.00 – World Pool Lennox Stakes (7f, Group 2)
Running style
Seven of the last ten winners were ridden patiently (H for held up in the table below)…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners were just two from 26 (+£16.00 to a £1 level stake at SP). Seven winners finishing between second and fourth in their prep race and backing them blind returned a profit of £76.15…
3.35 – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (2m, Group 1)
Prep race
Since 2013 (13 renewals), 12 winners arrived at Glorious Goodwood on the back of a victory in Group or Listed company…
…an backing all 28 qualifiers returned a profit of £34.54 at SP. Scandinavia (WON 4-1) was last year’s sole qualifier.
4.10 – Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap (5f, Class 2)
This used to be a 4yo+ handicap but is now open to 3yos. There were only two representatives from the classic generation last year and they finished second and third (9-2 and 5-1) behind 8yo Brazen Bolt (28-1).
4.45 – British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings) (6f, Class 2)
Running style
Hold-up horses have fared poorly across the past ten renewals, winning just twice from 67 runners…
Previous experience
Newcomers took this in 2017 and in 2018 but are 0-36 since 2019…
5.20 – Bolney English Wine Fillies’ Handicap (1m, Class 3)
Age
Those aged four and older are 0-28 in the past ten renewals
Market position
Nine of the ten winners came from the top four in the betting…
Distance last time out
Those stepping down in trip from 1m1f or further fared well…
…last year’s two qualifiers finished one-two (11-2 and 12-1). All three winners (from nine qualifiers) were three-year-olds.
Running style last time out
Those runners ridden patiently last time out usually under-performed…
Wednesday, July 29
1.50 – Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap (1m4f, Class 2)
Prep race
Since 2015 (11 renewals) those runners who prepped at Newmarket had a poor record…
Race class last time out
Eight of the 11 winners in the study period prepped in another Class 2 contest…
…and backing them blind returned a profit of £22.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Draw
Nine of the 11 winners were drawn in stall 6 or lower…
System
Backing runners who prepped in a Class 2 or 3 contest away from Newmarket found ten of the 11 winners (from 62 bets) for a profit of £33.00…
Splitting the qualifiers by draw reveals a chunk of profit among the low numbers…
2.25 – British Stallion Studs EBF Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (5f, Class 2)
Overview
This race was only introduced in 2019, and all seven renewals were on by horses with at least two previous runs under their belts, had raced within the past six weeks and were from the front three in the betting…
…backing all 20 qualifiers returned a profit of £7.33 at SP>
3.35 – Veuve Clicqot Molecomb Stakes (5f, Group 3)
Draw
Stalls 1-5 have a modest record in the past ten years…
Previous runs
Those with one or two previous runs to their name did well…
4.20 – 5f conditions stakes
No great angle though those who showed early speed over 5f LTO did OK…
5.40 – HKJC World Pool Handicap (7f, Class 3)
Running style
Great Acclaim (18-1) won this under a prominent ride last year he was well handicapped off 89 (now rated 101) and it’s traditionally a good race for hold-up horses (last 11 renewals)…
The best predictor of pace I found was a Proform pace rating of 0-2 (on a scale of 1-12)…
Those of you who wish to subscribe to Proform to get access to their pace ratings among a wealth of other data (including ratings, sectionals and a system builder) can get a 20% discount for the first three months by using the following link…
https://www.racemetrics.co.uk/pricing.html?code=TRENDS20
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners were 0-24 in the study period while all 11 winners finished second through sixth in their prep race…
System
Those who finished between second and sixth in their prep race, who had a Proform pace rating of two or lower (i.e. most likely to be ridden patiently, were eight form 34 across the past 11 renewals for a profit of £61.00…