There’s something for everyone this weekend, Group 1 action with the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, competitive handicaps like the Thirsk Hunt Cup and some quality jumping from the Punchestown festival. Andrew takes an in-depth look at the stats/trends that may help us to find a winner or two or avoid some weak favourites…
2.20 Newmarket – Betfred Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Younger horses have dominated in the past ten renewals of this 1m1f heritage handicap…
…with six winners aged four and those aged seven or older failing to register a win from 19 runners.
Running style
Front-runners were 0-12 but eight of them ten winners were prominent throughout. Hold-up horses were just two from 60.
Running style last time out
This has been a good guide to finding the winner, with last time out front-runners winning on three occasions (from just eight qualifiers) for a profit of £31.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who raced prominently last time out were five from 47 (+£8.50) while those ridden patiently in their prep race were just two from 65 (-£47.00)…
SP rank last time out
Nine of the ten winners started in the first four in the betting on their most recent outing…
Prep race
Six winners (from just 23 runners) prepped in a Class 3 contest (there were no qualifiers in 2024)…
Only five of those had landed their prep race and three followed up at Newmarket (20-1, 7-1 and 4-1) with another finishing second (12-1).
Previous turf wins
Turf maidens were 0-16…
Runners who had won two of more all-weather races were also best avoided…
System
Aged four to six, zero or one all-weather wins, one or more turf wins, led or prominent last time out…
…this angle has found the winner in eight of the past ten renewals and last year’s three qualifiers finished first (15-2), third (7-2) and fourth (50-1).
2.40 Thirsk – Sky Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Last time out winners have fared poorly across the past ten renewals of this 1m handicap…
…as have jockeys claiming an allowance of at least 3lb…
3.35 Newmarket – Betfred 2000 Guineas (Group 1)
Breeding
Eight of the last ten runnings of the 2000 Guineas were won by runners representing Irish damsires…
…and backing all 57 qualifiers returned a profit of £25.00.
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien has won this three times (from 23 runners) in the past ten seasons though backing them blindly returned a loss of £10.00 and the last 13 have all tasted defeat. Charlie Appleby is three from 14 (+£9.50) including three of the last four.
Prep race
Nine of the last ten winners arrived at Newmarket on the back of a victory, with the exception – Chaldean in 2023 – unseating his rider soon after the start in the Greenham (he won the time before). DISTANT STORM, the 5-1 second favourite at the time of writing, falls down on this stat as does 14-1 chance SAMANGAN and 16-1 shot AVICENNA.
4.45 Newmarket – National Stud Handicap (Class 2)
Age
The last eight winners of this 1m4f handicap were aged four and backing all 41 qualifiers in that period would have returned of profit of £40.08 to a 1 level stake at SP. Backing only those who had won at least twice on turf would have found six winners from 23 bets for a profit of £48.75.
5.20 Newmarket – Newmarket “Confined” Handicap (For Horses Which Have Won No More Than One Race) (Class 4)
Last time out winners have a poor record in this 7f “confined” handicap, failing to register a single win from 14 qualifiers in the five previous runnings…
Previous wins
Three winners had won previously but backing the 45 qualifiers returned a loss of £26.00. Maidens were two from 11 (+£6.33).
Weight rank
All five winners came from the top six in the weights, those ranked seventh or lower fared poorly…
Previous handicap form
Those runners making their handicap debut were 0-17…
System
Top six in weights and beaten in a handicap last time out…
…this angle hit all five winners from 16 bets and made a profit of £20.33.
5.30 Punchestown – Lawlor’s Of Naas Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
Trainers
Willie Mullins has won six of the last ten renewals of this competitive 2m4.5f contest, including six of the last eight, and backing his 71 runners would have returned a profit pf £35.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Gordon Elliott is 0-15 in the same period.
SP favourites
The favourite (including joint and co-favourites) was 0-14 in the past ten renewals…
Days since last run
All ten winners had raced in the last 50 days. Those that had been absent for longer were 0-51.
Cheltenham festival form
Eight of the ten winners had run at a previous Cheltenham festival
…and backing all 109 qualifiers returned a profit of £10.50.
System
Willie Mullins’ representatives who had raced at any previous Cheltenham festival were five from 39 for a profit of £61.00…
