In his latest column Andrew takes an in-depth look into the stats and trends that could steer us towards a winner or two at Ascot on King George Day (Saturday, July 25th)…
1.10 – Dentakay EBF Crocker Bulteel “Confined” Maiden Stakes (One Run Or Less)
Previous experience
Five of the last ten winners of this 6f “confined” maiden for colts/geldings were making their racecourse debut but those wins came from 53 runners. The other five winners had raced once and came from a smaller sample size (28 runners). They beat 61.41% of their rivals, as compared to just 43.97% for the newcomers. All five prepped at either Newbury or Newmarket and backing runners from those two tracks returned a profit of £14.07 at SP…
…this year’s qualifiers are the Clive Cox-trained Pride Of Toledo, Ed Walker’s Shakwaa and the John Jenkins-trained Silent Sadhu.
1.45 – Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)
Foaling month
Since 2010, backing all runners foaled in January or February would have found eight winners from 47 bets (17%) for a profit of £30.45 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…only four of those started as favourite and three of them won.
2.20 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies and Mares)
Running style
Six of the last ten winners were ridden patiently and backing all 42 runners who came from off the pace returned a profit of £30.33 at SP…
Running style last time out
Those runners who made the running in their prep race were 0-11…
Race class last time out
Those who prepped in Group 3 company were just three from 28 for a loss of £15.01 at SP.
2.55 – Moet & Chandon International Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
Weight rank
Top weights were 0-10 in the last ten years, recording form figures of 4500067067.
Horse sex
Colts were 0-19 in the study period, fillies 0-1, mares 0-1, entires 0-8. Geldings won all ten renewals.
Age
Three-year-olds were 0-16 and horses aged eight plus were 0-17.
Finishing position last time out
Six of the last ten winners had finished in the top three in their prep race and backing all 78 qualifiers returned a profit of £10.50 at SP.
Prep race
Nine of the last ten winners prepped at Ascot or Newmarket.
System
Geldings aged between four and seven, excluding top weights, were ten from 165 for a profit of £6.00 at SP (+£137.29 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Those who prepped at Ascot or Newmarket were nine from 92…
…those qualifiers ridden patiently last time out were eight from 57…
4.10 – Ascot Shop Handicap (Class 4)
Previous handicap form
Handicap debutants were four from eight for a very healthy profit…
…four of those were last time out winners and they recorded form figures of 3111 (3-4).
Draw
Stall 1 runners recorded form figures of 3846728933 (0-10).
5.20 – Whispering Angel Handicap (Class 2)
Previous turf wins
Since 2015 (11 renewals) those runners who had zero or one turf wins to their name were 0-24…
Days since last run
All 11 winners in the study period had raced within the past five weeks and backing all 103 qualifiers returned a small profit at SP…
Horse sex
Fillies and mares were 0-16 in the study period.
System
Backing only male runners with two or more previous wins on turf, who had raced within the past five weeks, would have found 11 winners from 76 bets across the past 11 renewals for a profit of £39.25 at SP. Those who were fifth or lower in the weights fared even better…
