York’s three-day Dante meeting gets underway tomorrow (Wednesday, May 13th) and Andrew uses his latest column to identify the stats and trends that can help us to unearth a winner or two…
Wednesday
2.20 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap (Class 2)
Market position
Favourites (including joint favourites) are five from 11 across the past ten renewals for a profit of £6.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£9.24 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).
Top weights
Top weights (including joint top weights) had form figures of 55677849940 (0-11).
Age
Those aged six or older were 0-34 in the study period.
Horse sex
Colts were four from 17 for a profit of £4.50 (expected wins = 2.02. A/E = 1.98).
Running style last time out
Four winners made the running last time out (‘L’ in the table above), four more were prominent (’P’) while only two (from 62 runners were held up (‘H’). There are no last-time out pacesetters in this year’s line-up, though five horses raced prominently – PLAGE DE HAVRE (top weight), KING’S CODE, SING US A SONG, PRINCE OF THE SEAS and FIREBLADE.
System
Backing those aged five or younger, who were second or lower in the weights and led or raced prominently in their prep race would have found seven of the last ten winners (from 30 bets) for a profit of £17.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected wins = 3.44, A/E = 2.04). This year’s qualifiers are PRINCE OF THE SEAS and FIREBLADE.
3.30 – Go Local Stores Minster Stakes (Group 2)
Age
Eight of the last ten winners were aged four and backing all 43 qualifiers returned a profit of £7.82. The other two winners were aged five (+£16.50)…
Horse sex
Geldings were just one from 55 in the study period…
…the geldings running this year are REGIONAL, DILIGENT HARRY, QUINAULT, AMERICAN AFFAIR and ELMONJED.
System
Non-geldings, aged four or five, have landed nine of the last ten renewals (from 47 runners) for a profit of £47.82 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…throw in a single-figure draw (i.e. stall 9 or lower) and the record improves to nine from 37 for a profit of £57.82 (+£119.77 at Betfair SP). This year’s qualifiers are JASOIR, ARAMRAM, KIND OF BLUE, AIN’T NOBODY, BIG MOJO and CRESTOFDISTINCTION.
4.05 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3)
Finishing position last time out
Last-time out winners had a modest record, winning four of the last ten renewals (rom 42 runners)…
Since 2018, the score is just one from 33…
…the expected number of wins was 5.17 (A/E = 0.19). This year’s qualifiers are SEA THE STORM and FELICITAS.
In the same period backing the 17 runners who were beaten last time out would have hit six winners for a profit of £64.00 at SP…
This year’s qualifiers are MOMENTS OF JOY, DELLA PACE, LEGACY LINK and K SARRA.
4.40 – Conundrum HR Consulting Handicap (Class 3)
Race class last time out
Class droppers were 0-42, those who prepped in another Class 3 contest were just one from 38, while those taking a step up in class were nine from 70…
This year’s class droppers are FIRST LEGION, ELUSIVE BUTTERFLY and AL NAJASHI, while those who prepped in the same grade were AWRAAD and DAYDREAMA.
Finishing position last time out
Nine of the last ten winners finished in the top three in their prep race and backing all 85 qualifiers returned a profit…
System
Those stepping up from Class 4 or 5 level, who finished in the top three last time out were eight from 55 for a profit of £36.80. Fifteen of those runners were drawn between stalls 4 and 8 and they returned a profit of £62.30 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£115.38 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). This year’s well drawn qualifiers are FIRST TIME and THE RESDEV SCHOLAR.
Thursday
2.55 – Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap (Class 2)
Weight rank
Those in the top five in the weights were eight from 52 for a profit of £17.00…
Finishing position last time out
Last-time out winners were 0-21 in the study period…
Friday
3.30 – Design Tonic Out Of This World Spaces At The Races EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race)
Race class last time out
Those who prepped in Class 3 or Class 4 company had a good record…
…landing seven of the last ten renewals for a profit of £87.50.