There’s some cracking jumps action to look forward to at Ascot and Wetherby on Saturday (November 1st) and I’ve used this week’s column to take a look at some of the stats/trends that might help us to uncover a winner or two in the big races…
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Ascot, Saturday, November 1st
12.55 – 2m3.5f Grundon Waste Management Conditional Jockeys’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Weight
Higher weighted runners have struggled in the seven previous runnings of this race (two divisions in 2020), with those carrying 11-05 or more (once jockey claims have been taken into account) failing to register a win from 17 runners…
Days since last run
Six of the seven winners had raced within the past six weeks and backing them blind returned a small profit…
SP rank last time out
Three winners had started as favourite for their prep race, three more as second favourite and the other as third favourite. Those who were fourth or worse in the betting last time out had a combined record of 0-27…
System
Runners carrying 11st 4lb or less who were relatively fancied for their prep race (top three in the betting) were seven from 30 for a profit of £23.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…
1.30 – 2m3f Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
This race usually goes to a seasonal debutant and, in the past ten years, backing all runners who had been rested for at least 150 days would have found seven winners (from 34 bets) and returned a profit of £9.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+26.47% on turnover). At Betfair SP (after 2% commission) the profit was £15.17 (+44.61%).
2.05 – Grundon Waste Management Handicap Chase
This premier handicap chase usually goes to a horse ridden patiently. Eight of the last ten winners were held up (‘H’ in the table below), two raced prominently (‘P’) while front-runners (‘L’ for led) were 0-10.
3.10 – 1m7.5f Lavazza Handicap Hurdle
This Class 2 contest usually goes to a runner higher up in the weights, with all ten winners in the top six in the handicap. Backing all 61 qualifiers blind returned a profit of £20.25 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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Wetherby, Saturday, November 1st
2.22 – 3m bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2)
The Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle has not been a good race for horses reverting from fences, with all 18 qualifiers beaten in the past ten renewals…
Mares have only been represented five times in the past ten years but three of them won for a profit of £14.63 to a £1 level stake at SP…
2.57 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)
It’s Charlie Hall Chase day at Wetherby where it usually pays to avoid horses aged ten or older in the big race…
…recent flops include Cue Card (third at 8-11 in 2016) Coneygree (pulled up when 7-4 for the 2017 renewal and Conflated, only fifth when 7-2 last year. This year, the early market is dominated by veterans, with Protektorat trading at 5-2, Pic D’orhy at 4-1 and Hewick at a best-priced 5-1.
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