Cambridgeshire Trends 2026: Dave Young outlines key Newmarket angles

The Cambridgeshire is well targeted handicap over 9 furlongs in Newmarket and the latest target trainer is Karl Burke who has taken the last two renewals and defied some draw bias with each.

I’ve looked at the last 25 runnings and compared to the running’s to see if we can spot the long-standing trends and those which might be turning or maybe already have turned.

KEY TRENDS

Will be no older than 6 but preferably aged either 4 or 6
Just as likely to come from 9^th or bigger in the market as they are from the Top 4 in the betting
Preference still goes to those in the Top half of the draw and ideally 25 or higher but it’s not a dealbreaker given the last two results
Probably carrying 9-04 or higher and rated 103 or higher (respect those carrying 9-12)
Not required to have course form but preferable
Not required to have run at 9f but preferable, especially if winning
Should have 3 or more runs this season but either 0 or 1 win this season

Focussed Trends

AGE

3yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
4yo – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)

6-year-olds have been blind to back across both periods and while 4-year-olds are also profitable to back blind in the last 10 instances, they’re not over the long term but they have consistently found the most winners.

PRICE

Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
Top 4 in the betting – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
9^th or bigger in the betting – 10/25 (40%) & 6/10 (60%)

Favourites are not profitable to back blind in either period and even following the front of the market up to the 4^th in the betting is a loss maker.

Preference would be given to runners who are ranking 9^th or bigger in the market at SP, so with a few winners in the last decade at 40/1 or bigger, don’t be afraid of a big price

DRAW

Drawn in the TOP half – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/25 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)
Bottom 3 stalls – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
Top 3 stalls – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
Stall 1-12 – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
Stall 13-24 – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
Stall 25+ – 10/25 (40%) & 6/10 (60%)

I’ve marked Stall numbers here before any non-runners. With that in mind there is a strong bias for being drawn in the Top half of the draw in the last decade and furthermore, in being drawn in stall 25 or higher.

The last two winners were drawn in stalls 4 and 6 which defy this logic so while previously draw would hold a big edge in whittling down the field, it’s important but not a dealbreaker.

WEIGHT AND OFFICIAL RATING

Carrying 9-4 or more – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
Holds an OR of 103 or higher – 7/25 (28%) & 6/10 (60%)

Another change over the years has been the weight carried and the Official rating of the winner. Until 2013, there hadn’t been a winner this century with an OR of 103 or higher but since then 8 of the 13 winners held that mark or above.

Before 2018, there had been just one winner shoulder 9-5 or more but since then 5 of the 8 winners held at least that weight.

Curiously, the last 3 winners all carried 9-12 to victory.

LAST TIME OUT

Ran at 8 or 10 furlongs – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Top 4 finish – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
Sent off single-figures last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
Ran in Class 2 Handicap – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)

Last time out performers who raced at 8-10-furlongs, placed Top 4, were sent off single figures and ran in a Class 2 handicap last time out are worth following in their own rights but combining all these measures find 6 winners from 114 qualifiers in the last 25 renewals for a losing 50% ROI.

In the last 10 renewals, it’s just 3 from 48 with a losing 45% ROI, so while these measures are worth considering, they’re not for use in combination.

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
Winners who had WON at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 4/12 (33%) & 2/6 (33%)

Newmarket Rowley mile experiences isn’t essential but given that a third of those who had been here had won across both periods measured it certainly doesn’t hurt to have been here before.

DISTANCE FORM

Winners who had RUN at about 9f – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
Winners who had WON at about 9f – 7/12 (58%) & 2/6 (33%)

This being a 9-furlong contest lends itself to horses who may not have tried this niche distance. That said, around half or more of winners had run at 9-furlongs before now and while in the last 10 only a third had won too, if you include the 2015 winner it’s another winner over the trip so you’d certainly prefer a horse to have tried the trip and give another big tick if they’ve won at the trip too.

SEASON FORM

Had 3+ runs this season – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
0 wins this season – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
Just 1 win this season – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)

The winner of this race is likely to have had 3 or more runs this season but most winners had no more than 1 win this season.

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