That special time of year has finally come around once again. The tweed jackets are firmly a distant memory and the top hats are back, it’s of course, Royal Ascot.
Five days of the most exhilarating bundle of world class flat racing in the calendar year where dreams are simultaneously fulfilled and destroyed within minutes. From the blistering two year olds to the gallant old stayers, the week is a marvellous cocktail catered to everyone’s racing tipple. Many punters have no doubt already lost their pieces to the ante-post puzzle, whereas others are sitting on three aces. Racing is a sphere with little guarantee’s, but you will certainly not want to miss this glorious frenzy of a week.
Matthew Sutcliffe guides us through the best value plays ahead of the fifth and final day of Royal Ascot.
Published: 3.55pm June 21st (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 11.25am June 24th (Saint Lawrence selection added)
DAY FIVE
2:30pm Chesham Stakes (Class 1 Listed)
COUNT PALATINE (0.75pt E/W – 33/1 generally)
Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last seven running’s of the Chesham Stakes, and he has an array of ammo entered to fire here. Including three of the four to have record an RPR of 100+. That said, I don’t think it looks a vintage renewal and there is value to be had elsewhere, including Brian Meehan’s COUNT PALATINE. The gelded son of Profitable did well to only be beaten three lengths on debut when detached in rear with the field relatively well spread out. He couldn’t quite go the very quick early pace, but picked up well towards the end, clocking the 2nd fasted final furlong along with the eventual winner Chief Mankato, who came from closer off the pace. That run suggested he wants further, so the extra furlong here will suit. His pedigree backs that up as although by the speedy Profitable, his dam was a winner over 1m4f and he’s a half-brother to NINE winners over a mile. The form of that Windsor race has worked out very well as the 4th and 3rd have won well since. The favourite, who could only manage 6th, had previously finished in front of Haatem who was an excellent 5th in the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday. That race was on good-to-firm ground, but the easier ground could be in his favour this time and the stiff seven furlongs at Ascot could suit judged on that staying on 5th.
3:05pm Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
FLIGHT PLAN (1pt E/W – 20/1 Bet365, 16/1 generally)
I am absolutely convinced we are yet to see the best of Karl Burke’s FLIGHT PLAN, who was too green do justify short odds on debut last year. He put that debut well behind him when running away with a confident win at Newcastle, two lengths clear of the 2nd and nine lengths from the 3rd. The fact that he wasn’t seen until late on in the autumn suggests he was always going to be a colt who’d come in to his own as a three year old, and backed up that suspicion when just headed by a typically game Johnston horse in the listed Burradon Stakes in April. That form has worked out nicely as Galeron, who was two lengths behind in 3rd, was subsequently 4th and 5th in the British and Irish 2000 Guineas. The 4th (Benacre) was then 2nd to Shouldhavebeenaring who filled that spot against Little Big Bear next time out (King’s Stand winner Bradsell in behind). The 6th and 7th have also won well since, the latter taking the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar. Flight Plan was then audaciously sent to the 2000 Guineas, and its very easy to draw a line through that race as he didn’t stay the mile on bottomless ground, like plenty other (did split Little Big Bear and Auguste Rodin in fairness!). The fact connections sent him there suggest he is well thought of, and the drop in trip will suit here, as will the (hopefully) drying ground come racing on Saturday. Interestingly, six of the last ten Jersey winners had previously ran in a Guineas, and five were yet to win as a three year old thus far. Clipper logistics and Danny Tudhope won this race in 2019 with Space traveller.
3:40pm Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)
RUN TO FREEDOM *advised 33/1 win NAP* (2pt E/W – 20/1 generally)
I’ve saved the best bet of the meeting until last, and it is Henry Candy’s RUN TO FREEDOM, who knows a thing or two about what it takes to win this race. Candy took the race in 2016 with Twilight Son, a half-brother to Run To Freedom. Not only that – and if you’re into your coincidences you’ll love this one – before winning this race, Twilight Son was 2nd in the Sprint Stakes a year before on Champions Day to Muhaarar. Run To Freedom, by Muhaarar, was 2nd to Kinross in the Sprint Stakes last season. Coincidences and omens aside, Candy’s mount was a huge improver in 2021, rising through the handicap ranks from a mark of 88 before going on to bigger and better things the following season, which saw him finish an excellent 3L tenth in this contest at 100/1. He was fitted with cheekpieces later that season, finishing a 2L 4th to Rohaan when possibly mounting a challenge far too early, before going on to finish 2nd over C&D in the Sprint Stakes. He left his reappearance well behind him this season when taking the listed Cathedral Stakes in a 6F track record breaking time. He was an eyecatcher for the column after that race, and I couldn’t have been more impressed. Trevor Whelan gave him a lovely ride and the horse responded immediately to his urgings, finishing off under hands and heels and winning a shade cosily despite what the winning margin would suggest. He returns this year rated 10lbs higher, a reflection of his progressive ways, and I think he has a massive chance. I also think it’s a marginally weaker race than last year, despite some re-opposing. The top rated is Kinross on 119, and Run To Freedom is rated 113. When they met over C&D last year, the gap was 10lbs between the pair, so RTF if this was a handicap then RTF would have a 4lbs swing to find 2l with Kinross. Obviously it isn’t a two horse race, nor is Kinross close to favouritism, but it does highlight that last year Run To Freedom has significantly less to find on ratings this year, and given I do think we still haven’t seen the best of him, he is firmly my best bet of the week.
5:00pm Wokingham Stakes (Class 2)
MR WAGYU (already advised 16/1 win), RAATEA (0.5pt E/W – 25/1 generally, paying 4 places) + SAINT LAWRENCE (1pt E/W – 14/1 generally, paying 6 places)
Come 5pm on Saturday, I could look very foolish here and have both of my selections out of the race. If that is the case after declarations then I will suck up the loss and revisit the contest with a fresh set of eyes and conjure up another or two. I’ll begin with MR WAGYU, who was advised antepost at 16/1 after his excellent3rd in the JRA Tokyo Trophy at Epsom on Derby weekend. He was the only one who raced prominent to maintain that relentless early gallop and still finish close up, with the 1st,2nd,4th, and 5th all coming from midfield. I thought that run would’ve put him spot on for another tilt at the Wokingham, so I was both surprised and frustrated when connections decided to turn him out seven days later at Haydock as opposed to keep him a tad fresher. He performed poorly there off top weight and reportedly ran flat, finishing a five length nine at 9/4f. In the back of my mind, there’s a slight inkling that he may not line up in this as we’re not sure how he is at home on the back of that, but if he does, then I will be backing him immediately at around 25/1 EW. He is too well-handicapped to ignore, 4lbs below his win in the Scurry Handicap at the Curragh and 5lbs below his 2L 4th in this contest last season. Prior to that mishap at Haydock, he had only ever finished out of the placings in June/July five times from thirty-two starts, winning fifteen of them, so it is certainly his time of the year.
RAATEA is currently number 44 and rated 90r, so connections (as will I) will need a bit of luck to see him declared here. That said, he will likely sneak in off bottom weight if so and I think he’ll have an excellent chance. The newly fitted cheek-pieces certainly sharpened him up at Haydock last time out and he was better than the bare margin suggested. James Doyle got to the front far too early and the horse idled somewhat when lacking company, before quickening away again when Emperor Spirit and Nomadic Empire got close to him. He’s a talented sprinter who gives the impression he’s holding plenty back, but if the new headgear continues to work I suspect he has plenty of handicapping scope off 93. The big field scenario at Ascot will inevitably help him, so it’s just a case of crossing our limbs to see him balloted in.
Come 17:00, I think that the stands side will be the place to be and SAINT LAWRENCE could be in the prime spot in stall 30. Although winless since his two year old days, I am hoping that a trainer and the re-application of blinkers will spark life in to this one time promising sprinter. Archie Watson has an excellent first time out record with horses from other yards, and combined with Hollie Doyle to take the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes yesterday. I thought Saint Lawrence made a promising reappearance this season in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes where he was a four lengths sixth to Garrus, the form of that race has worked out very well, the 7th (Silky Wilkie) was a 3L 5th next time out in the Group 3 Howden Palace Stakes before just being touched off in the Epsom Dash off top weight (107r), the 6th (Jumby) easily took the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes, the 4th (Tiber Flow) was 2nd to the 3rd (Creative Force) in a Conditions Stakes at Haydock nto with the 2nd (Commanche Falls) back in 3rd who was then 3rd to the Clipper Stakes behind Azure Blue and King’s Stand 2nd Highfield Princess next time out. That form alone suggests Saint Lawrence is impeccably well handicapped off 100r. It may be worth forgiving his run over the same C&D next time out where he was drawn wrong on ground described as ‘tacky’. His record at Ascot reads 624, including a 2nd to Rohan in the G3 Commonwealth Cup Trial in 2021, and a good 6th in the King’s Stand last season. He strikes me as a typical candidate for the Wokingham and could be revitalised by the change of scenery as the innate ability is surely there.
New & Exclusive: Matthew Sutcliffe’s Value Pointers and Punts – Royal Ascot Day Three
That special time of year has finally come around once again. The tweed jackets are firmly a distant memory and the top hats are back, it’s of course, Royal Ascot. Five days of the most exhilarating bundle of world class flat racing in the calendar year where dreams are simultaneously fulfilled and destroyed within minutes….
Sat 17 Jun 2023Royal Ascot Antepost pointers already advised
Wonder Legend – King George V Stakes
Royal Scotsman – 4/1 St James’ Palace
Midnight Affair – 10/1 Queen Mary
Natural Force – 12/1 Windsor Castle
Ferrari Queen – 40/1 EW Ribblesdale
Point Lonsdale – 10/1 Hardwicke
Highfield Princess – 5/1 Kings Stand
Love Wars – 25/1 Queen Mary EW
Yibir – 20/1 Gold Cup EW
Mostabshir – 12/1 St James’ Palace
Mitbaahy – King’s Stand 66/1 EW
Shining Blue – 16/1 Royal Hunt Cup
Run To Freedom – 33/1 QEII NAP
Haatem 33/1 EW Coventry
Mr Wagyu 16/1 Wokingham
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