That special time of year has finally come around once again. The tweed jackets are firmly a distant memory and the top hats are back, it’s of course, Royal Ascot.
Five days of the most exhilarating bundle of world class flat racing in the calendar year where dreams are simultaneously fulfilled and destroyed within minutes. From the blistering two year olds to the gallant old stayers, the week is a marvellous cocktail catered to everyone’s racing tipple. Many punters have no doubt already lost their pieces to the ante-post puzzle, whereas others are sitting on three aces. Racing is a sphere with little guarantee’s, but you will certainly not want to miss this glorious frenzy of a week.
Matthew Sutcliffe is the newest recruit to the GG team and he will be looking back on the previous weekend for smart performances, as well as picking the best value plays ahead of the Days Three of Royal Ascot.
Published: 9.45pm June 17th (Odds correct at time of publication)
DAY THREE
2:30pm Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)
THE FIXER (0.5pt E/W – 25/1 generally)
Karl Burke’s Elite Status is the 2nd highest rated two year old this season behind George Boughey’s Asadna, who both may line up here against Lady Aurelia’s first foal American Rascal for Wesley Ward, so I’m under no illusion that this will be a very strong contest. The French raider THE FIXER hasn’t yet been found in the market and I’m surprised he’s as big as 25/1. Graffard’s son of the 2013 Norfolk winner No Nay Never was impressive in a listed contest at Chantilly earlier this month, where he improved plenty for the quicker ground. He was awarded a top-speed rating of 90 for that performance which puts him joint top in this contest in that regard along with Elite Status, Asadna and Barnwell Bay. The Norfolk is often won by a precocious type, and The Fixer’s pedigree suggests he fits that mould. His Kodiac dam, also trained by Graffard, was a winner on debut at two years old, as was his half-brother Faro De San Juan. That listed win was visually impressive, he travelled up well on the front end and was still on the bridle while the others got to work, and once Mickael Barzalona pressed go, the response was immediate and he won eased down. The form has some substance to it as 2 ½ lengths back in 3rd was Dorothy Lawrence, who was previously only beaten ½ a length behind Got To Love A Grey in the listed Marygate at York, who is a general 10/1 shot for the Queen Mary. Barzalona comes across for the ride, and I think he has a brilliant chance of serving it up to the protagonists.
3:05pm King George V Stakes (Class 2)
WONDER LEGEND (1pt win – 9/1 generally)
WONDER LEGEND was my first Royal Ascot pointer for the column at the start of last month, and I’m glad to see him follow the same path as connections’ Deauville Legend did when just beaten a head in this contest last year. The son of Sea The Stars made an absolute mockery of his opening mark of 81 when bolting up at Doncaster on turf debut. The conditions were soft enough that day but the way he travelled through them was impressive, and given he’s by Sea The Stars out of a Fastnet Rock mare, he shouldn’t have an issue transitioning to quicker ground. He’s been slapped heavily with a 15lbs rise for that success, but given he still has an entry in the King Edward VII Stakes, a mark of 94 could still underestimate him. After his 2nd in this last year, Deavuille Legend went on to win the G3 Bahrain Trophy and the G2 Great Voltigeur before an excellent 4th in the Melbourne Cup, so it’s rather telling that connections send Wonder Legend down this route too.
3:40pm Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)
FERRARI QUEEN *advised 40/1 previously* (0.5pt E/W – 33/1 generally)
FERRARI QUEEN was another Royal Ascot pointer for the column, and I still think she will outrun her odds, as many Johnston horses do. The Ribblesdale has been farmed in recent years by John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien, and the former has supplemented Al Asifah for this race after her extraordinary performance at Goodwood just last weekend. There’s no escaping the fact that she looked very special there, and the times back it up. It could be wise to play Ferrari Queen in the W/O market on the day, however I do think she can at least hit the frame at larger odds. Her 3rd in the Oaks Trial was excellent for a filly stepping up from a mile for the first time. She was last on the turn and seemingly outpaced, perhaps down to a lack of fitness in comparison to the rest, but she clocked a quick last three furlongs confirming her pedigree’s suspicion that she will thrive over middle distances. Eternal Hope let down the form a tad when a distant 7th in the Oaks, but the conditions and yard form may have played a hand. The 4th, Ghara won next time out, and if you’re looking for a formline to beat Al Asifah, then Climate Friendly was four lengths behind Ferrari Queen at Lingfield before winning next time out with Sumo Sam five lengths behind, who was subsequently beaten eight lengths by Al Asifah. The stiff track at Ascot should suit Johnston’s filly and it’ll be interesting to see whether they revert to more prominent tactics.
4:20pm Ascot Gold Cup (Group 1)
YIBIR (already advised 20/1 ante-post) + TASHKHAN (0.5pt E/W – 66/1 generally)
The Ascot Gold Cup is without the familiar face of Stradivarius this year, and it has a very different shape to it. In recent years, the ante-post writing has been on the punting wall for quite some time with favourites winning seven of the last 10 running’s. There are some new kids on the staying block this year. St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov and the ever improving Coltrane currently head the market at 3s a piece. Subjectivist, the 2021 winner, is around 10/1 in an attempt to retain his crown and returned to somewhere near that form at Meydan last time out behind subsequent Belmont Gold Cup winner Siskany and Broome, who will have to prove his stamina for this gruelling test. Others who have to prove their worth at this trip are the likes of the unexposed 4yo Courage Mon Ami for John Gosden, and it would be fantastic to see him have another Stradivarius type star in his hands. Emily Dickinson won over 2 miles at the Curragh last October, but was well beaten at 2/5F last time out. The horse who I think will absolutely love this test is YIBIR for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. I put him up in the column at 20/1 after his staying on 4th to Haskoy in the Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury, and stand by that selection. Five times a winner between 1m4f-1m5f, he will of course have to prove his stamina for 2m4f, but while he isn’t short of speed, he has always shaped like a big lazy stayer and I can’t envisage him not plugging on toward the end. That isn’t to be detrimental to his ability as a middle distance candidate, as contrary to popular belief I do think he poses an element of a turn of foot, but he needs a strong pace to use it effectively and can be found out when attempting to quicken off a slow pace. As mention when advising him previously, his dam was a dual winner over 2 miles so there’s optimism from his pedigree that the stamina reserves will be within. Appleby has come out the bright end of a barren spell recently with a few winners, just in time for Royal Ascot.
One horse who is criminally overpriced in this is Brian Ellison’s TASHKHAN. While he may not possess the pizazz of some of these, nor the star quality, he was only beaten five lengths in this race last year, leading three out before missing out on a place only 1F out. Kyprios won that race before going on to win three more Group 1’s, and 3x winner of the race Stradivarius was only 3 3/4L in front. Dare I say it, but that form puts him right up there with any other staying form over 2 miles the others have in here. Admittedly, he is winless since July 2021 but he’s kept G3/2/1 company for nine of his eleven races since, and has rarely ever been disgraced. As stated, is he the classiest out of the entries? Not at all, but there’s only few guaranteed (if that) stayers in here. His record between 2m-2m4f reads well and he rarely fails to give his running. His two runs this season have been promising, 3/4L 3rd in the Barry Hills Further Flight Listed Stakes behind Rajinsky and Trueshan, before a 3L 4th in the Prix de Barberville at Longchamp. He’s never been beaten more than 5L at Ascot, and if the protagonists fail to give their running at the trip, then it’s not out of the question that he won’t be staying on for some place money at a nice price. Three places ante-post, but will likely be more on the day and I doubt his price will differ that much.
New & Exclusive: Matthew Sutcliffe’s Value Pointers and Punts – Royal Ascot Day One
That special time of year has finally come around once again. The tweed jackets are firmly a distant memory and the top hats are back, it’s of course, Royal Ascot. Five days of the most exhilarating bundle of world class flat racing in the calendar year where dreams are simultaneously fulfilled and destroyed within minutes….
Wed 14 Jun 2023Royal Ascot Antepost pointers already advised
Wonder Legend – King George V Stakes
Royal Scotsman – 4/1 St James’ Palace
Midnight Affair – 10/1 Queen Mary
Natural Force – 12/1 Windsor Castle
Ferrari Queen – 40/1 EW Ribblesdale
Point Lonsdale – 10/1 Hardwicke
Highfield Princess – 5/1 Kings Stand
Love Wars – 25/1 Queen Mary EW
Yibir – 20/1 Gold Cup EW
Mostabshir – 12/1 St James’ Palace
Mitbaahy – King’s Stand 66/1 EW
Shining Blue – 16/1 Royal Hunt Cup
Run To Freedom – 33/1 QEII NAP
Haatem 33/1 EW Coventry
Mr Wagyu 16/1 Wokingham
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