Andrew looks ahead to Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting at Cheltenham and unearths the stats and systems that matter.
12:35 – Citipost Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Since 2014, jockeys claiming exactly 7lb have been represented 42 times in this 3m1f amateur riders’ handicap chase (there was no qualifier in 2018 and the meeting was abandoned in 2019), and all 42 were beaten…
…last year’s eight qualifiers recorded form figures of PU48509P (0-8). The riders on eight of the 11 winners in the study period were unable to claim a weight allowance, and they returned a profit of £10.75 to a £1 level stake at SP from 67 runners. Last year’s six qualifiers included the winner and the runner-up.
Days since last run (DSLR)
Ten of the last 11 winners had raced within the past five weeks…
…those runners absent for 35 days or longer were just one from 52…
Last-time-out running style
Those who made the running last time out had a poor record…
Other angles
All 11 winners prepped in another chase; eight of the 11 winners finished first or second in their prep race.
System
Recent run (1-34 days), jockey not claiming an allowance, prepped in a chase…
Those who finished first or second last time out fared especially well…
13:50 – Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Age
Six-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals…
…and backing all 22 qualifiers returned a profit of £9.88 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Previous chase runs in GB/IRE
Eight of the ten winners were having their second run over fences in Britain or Ireland and backing the 23 qualifiers blindly returned a profit of £4.10…
14:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Running style
Front-runners and prominent racers have outperformed hold-up horses in the 16 renewals since 2010…
Finishing position last time out
Only two winners had landed their prep race in the 16-year study period, with the latest one back in 2013.
Race class last time out
Those who prepped in Class 3 or lower company had a poor record (since 2010)…
Course last time out
11 of the 16 winners prepped at Aintree, Chepstow or Wetherby…
System
Ran at a British track other than Cheltenham last time out, finishing second or worse…
This angle has found ten of the last 11 winners.
15:30 – Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Course last time out
Runners who prepped at Cheltenham were just one from 33 in the 16-year study period…
Horse sex
All winners were geldings.
Age
All winners were aged six or younger.
Days since last run
A very recent outing (23 days or sooner) has not been helpful, with just two winners from 84 runners…
…whereas those who had raced between 24 and 56 days ago fared much better…
System
4-6yo geldings, off the track for 24 days or longer…
…eight of these had won just once over hurdles previously.
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