Cheltenham takes up most of today’s GG Hot List, with six of the nine runners at the track and three of them in one race, the Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle at 16:00. Harry Skelton, who has won on 21 of his last 54 rides, is on one of the six.
The Hot List is our daily shortlist of horses getting support in the market, the nap tables or the form book. Nine make it today.
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw picks out Military Cross from today’s list, his choice rather than the list topper:
Today’s Hot List
19:00 Dundalk · Magna Gee Gee
No. 1 on the list. Well backed for the Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Apprentice Handicap over a mile and a half. Patrick J Flynn’s stable has won with 4 of its last 11 runners (36%) over the past fortnight, and Robyn Donaghue-Leahy has 14 winners from 73 rides at Dundalk since 2010. The four-year-old gelding is rated 62, two pounds below the top-rated Coilins Girl on 64, and carries 9st 10lb.
14:30 Sedgefield · Military Cross
No. 2 on the list. Well backed for the Christmas Parties At Sedgefield Racecourse Maiden Hurdle over two miles and 178 yards, and napped by Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times). Sam England has 46 winners from 244 runners at Sedgefield since 2010, and Jonathan England has won on 3 of his last 12 rides over the past fortnight. The four-year-old gelding has finished second on his last three starts and is rated 115, 13 pounds above the next-best rated runner, Champagne Powder on 102, in a field of seven. He carries 11st 4lb.
13:45 Cheltenham · Kingston Narcissus
No. 3 on the list. Backed for the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices’ Chase, a Listed race over three miles and a furlong, and napped by Topspeed (Racing Post) and Ben Morgan (Racing Ahead). Dan Skelton trains and Harry Skelton has won on 21 of his last 54 rides (39%) over the past fortnight. The seven-year-old gelding is rated 145, four pounds behind Intosomethinggood on 149, who has also been backed. He carries 11st 4lb.
14:55 Cheltenham · Triple Trade
No. 4 on the list. Napped three times for the Jilly Cooper Veterans’ Handicap Chase over two and a half miles, by Dave Nevison (Racing TV), Marlborough (Daily Telegraph) and Robin Goodfellow (Daily Mail). He has won two of his eight races at Cheltenham since 2010. His price has shortened a little, so the support is coming from the tipsters more than the market. Joe Tizzard trains and Harry Cobden has won on 8 of his last 30 rides (27%) over the past fortnight. The ten-year-old gelding is rated 151, the same as Thunder Rock and Outlaw Peter, and carries 10st 13lb in a field of eight.
15:50 Southwell · Iamcelestialgift
No. 5 on the list. The biggest market mover on the list, for the Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle over three miles and 60 yards. David Killahena and Graeme McPherson’s stable has won with 5 of its last 11 runners (45%) over the past fortnight. The eight-year-old gelding is rated 106, a pound below Luminaries on 107, who has drifted in the betting. Nick Slatter rides at 10st 3lb in a field of six.
16:00 Cheltenham · Ade Boy
No. 6 on the list. The first of three on the list in the Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle over two miles and 87 yards, and well backed. Charlie Longsdon’s stable has won with 6 of its last 16 runners (38%) over the past fortnight. The five-year-old gelding is rated 125, a pound below the three top-rated runners in a field of 18. Brian Hughes rides at 10st 11lb.
16:00 Cheltenham · Tuppence
No. 7 on the list. Well backed in the same race and napped by The Punt and RP Ratings (both Racing Post). The six-year-old mare is one of three runners on the top rating of 126, with Way Of Stars and Baymount. Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore train and Mr Lucas Murphy rides at 11st 4lb.
16:00 Cheltenham · Eben Zaabeel
No. 8 on the list. The third from the same race, backed into favouritism and napped three times, by Lee Sobot (Yorkshire Evening Post), Rockavon (Sunday Mail) and Matt Polley (Ipswich Star). The five-year-old gelding is rated 121. A J Martin trains and Daniel King rides at 11st 9lb.
14:55 Cheltenham · Thunder Rock
No. 9 on the list. The joint most-napped horse of the day with five, from Tipman Tips (tipmantips.com), Postdata (Racing Post), Garry Owen (Daily Record), racing-daily.com and talkSPORT, and well backed for the Veterans’ Handicap Chase, where he takes on Triple Trade. The ten-year-old gelding is rated 151. Olly Murphy trains and Sean Bowen rides at 11st 3lb.
Whose NAP to trust
These three nap tipsters have the best strike rate over the 28 days to Thursday 12 November. Here are their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 27 naps (52%). Today: In The Trenches, 13:20 Sedgefield.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 13 winners from 27 naps (48%). Today: Glancing Jack, 13:10 Cheltenham.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Sangreal, 19:30 Dundalk.
Thunder Rock and High Fibre have the most naps of the day, five each. Thunder Rock is on the list. High Fibre, who runs in the 13:10 at Cheltenham, has the naps and the form of James Owen’s stable (13 winners from its last 48 runners) counting for him, but he has drifted in the betting, so he is left off. Every nap is in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves among horses that are not on the list, because none meets a second criterion:
- Chicago Pope (18:00 Dundalk): price down by about 66%.
- Rock On Johnny (18:30 Dundalk): price down by about 56%.
- Intosomethinggood (13:45 Cheltenham): price down by about 50%.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Thursday’s Hot List had ten runners and three winners. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £23.24 from £10 staked, a profit of £13.24. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
How a horse makes the list
Every runner is checked against seven criteria: a big market move, naps, the horse’s own course record, and the trainer’s and jockey’s recent form and course records. A horse needs to meet two, one of them a market move or a nap. Horses that have drifted in the betting are left out and the list is capped at ten.
Prices checked at 09:30 GMT on Friday 13 November and subject to change. Form covers 30 October to 12 November. Course records cover races since 1 January 2010, which is as far as our data runs, so they are not career figures.
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