Market Rasen supplies six of the ten runners on today’s GG Hot List, and Sam Twiston-Davies has two of them.
The Hot List is our daily shortlist of horses getting support in the market, the nap tables or the form book. Ten make it today.
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw picks out Doctor Elvis from today’s list, his choice rather than the list topper:
Today’s Hot List
12:06 Market Rasen · Show Your Hand
No. 1 on the list. Well backed this morning, and that market move is the main reason he makes the list. He also meets the criteria on the trainer’s record: Adrian Paul Keatley’s yard has won with 11 of its 50 runners at Market Rasen since 2010. Brian Hughes has won on 12 of his 47 rides over the past fortnight. The four-year-old gelding is rated 104, behind only Northern Olympian on 117 in a field of ten, and carries 11st 4lb over two miles and 125 yards.
13:16 Market Rasen · Chemoulin
No. 2 on the list. Two tipsters have napped him, Matt Polley for the Ipswich Star and Jason Heavey for The Star, and his price has shortened slightly. Charlie Longsdon has won with 6 of his 14 runners over the past fortnight. Sam Twiston-Davies has 74 winners from 324 rides at Market Rasen since 2010. The six-year-old gelding carries 11st 10lb over two miles, seven furlongs and 191 yards.
13:28 Thurles · Doctor Elvis
No. 3 on the list. Three tipsters have napped him, including BGTips.co.uk, which has had the best strike rate of the naps tipsters over the past 28 days. Gordon Elliott has won with 97 of his 488 runners at Thurles since 2010, and Jack Kennedy has 48 winners from 184 rides at the track since 2010. The seven-year-old gelding is rated 134, 18 pounds clear of the next horse in the field, and carries 11st 4lb over two miles, six furlongs and 176 yards.
15:15 Thurles · Duke Otto
No. 4 on the list. The biggest market mover on the list, and well backed in the Two-Mile Borris Handicap Hurdle. Patrick J Flynn has won with 3 of his 10 runners over the past fortnight. Conor Smithers rides the eight-year-old gelding, who is rated 102 in a field of 17.
12:18 Thurles · That’s About Right
No. 5 on the list. Well backed for the Horse & Jockey Handicap Chase, and he has two wins from seven runs at Thurles since 2010. P J Rothwell trains the eight-year-old gelding, who is rated 116, behind only Littlebiggie on 121 and Stoneyford Lady on 118. Shane O’Callaghan rides and carries 10st 10lb over two miles, two furlongs and 55 yards.
12:06 Market Rasen · Equi Libre
No. 6 on the list. Well backed in the betting this morning, which is what puts him on the list. Dan Skelton has won with 104 of his 489 runners at Market Rasen since 2010. Robert Dunne rides the four-year-old gelding, who is rated 76 and carries 11st 4lb over two miles and 125 yards.
14:50 Hereford · Seraphic
No. 7 on the list. Two tipsters have napped him, Mercury for the Daily Post, one of the top three naps tipsters over the past 28 days, and Dean Kilbryde for the East Anglian Daily Times. David Killahena & Graeme McPherson have won with 4 of their 10 runners over the past fortnight. Kielan Woods rides the six-year-old gelding, who is rated 113, five pounds clear of Gaelic Saint on 108, and carries 11st 11lb.
15:01 Market Rasen · Fireball Frenzy
No. 8 on the list. Two tipsters have napped her, The Punt for the Racing Post and racing-daily.com. Stuart Edmunds has won with 23 of his 102 runners at Market Rasen since 2010. Charlie Hammond rides the six-year-old mare, who is rated 91 and carries 11st 13lb over two miles, seven furlongs and 16 yards.
13:16 Market Rasen · Tell The Tale
No. 9 on the list. He has four naps, more than any other runner on the list. Neil Mulholland trains the six-year-old gelding, and Conor O’Farrell has won on 4 of his 16 rides over the past fortnight. Tell The Tale is rated 122, seven pounds clear of Catwalk Girl on 115, and carries 11st 2lb over two miles, seven furlongs and 191 yards.
13:51 Market Rasen · Miss Denver
No. 10 on the list. Two tipsters have napped her, West Country for the Racing Post and Rory Paddock for the Jersey Evening Post. Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies train the six-year-old mare, and Sam Twiston-Davies has 74 winners from 324 rides at Market Rasen since 2010. She is rated 101 and carries 11st 3lb over two miles, five furlongs and 89 yards.
Whose NAP to trust
These three nap tipsters have the best strike rate over the 28 days to Wednesday 11 November. Here are their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 27 naps (52%). Today: Doctor Elvis, 13:28 Thurles.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Seraphic, 14:50 Hereford.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Governors Rock, 13:05 Hereford, which has drifted in the betting and is left off the list.
Burning Embers has the most naps of the day, five, in the 15:01 at Market Rasen. She meets four of the criteria, but she has drifted in the betting, so she is left off the list. Every nap is in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves among horses that are not on the list:
- Lord Cauvelliere (14:15 Hereford): price down by about 68%.
- Mad Maxios (15:48 Thurles): price down by about 55%.
- C’Est Pour Moi (14:26 Market Rasen): price down by about 52%.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Wednesday’s Hot List had five runners and three winners. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £11.95 from £5 staked, a profit of £6.95. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
How a horse makes the list
Every runner is checked against seven criteria: a big market move, naps, the horse’s own course record, and the trainer’s and jockey’s recent form and course records. A horse needs to meet two, one of them a market move or a nap. Horses that have drifted in the betting are left out and the list is capped at ten.
Prices checked at 08:00 GMT on Thursday 12 November and subject to change. Form covers 29 October to 11 November. Course records cover races since 1 January 2010, which is as far as our data runs, so they are not career figures.
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