Eight tipsters have napped the same Nicky Richards-trained novice in the 13:40 at Ayr, the most for any horse today, and Richards’ yard has won with 4 of its last 14 runners. A Dundalk claimer has seen the biggest move in the market on today’s GG Hot List.
The Hot List is our daily shortlist of horses getting support in the market, the nap tables or the form book. Five make it today.
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw picks out Seraphic from today’s list, his choice rather than the list topper:
Today’s Hot List
13:40 Ayr · Attin
No. 1 on the list. The most-napped horse of the day, with eight tipsters on board, among them Mercury (Daily Post), one of the three best nap tipsters of the last 28 days, plus Robin Goodfellow (Daily Mail) and Lee Sobot (Yorkshire Evening Post). The price has shortened, but the support is coming mainly from the tipsters rather than the market. Nicky Richards’ stable has won with 4 of its last 14 runners (29%) and has 98 winners from 529 runners at Ayr since 2010. Danny McMenamin rides the five-year-old gelding, who won last time out and carries 11st 0lb in a field of 10 for the two-mile novices’ hurdle.
15:30 Dundalk · Red Hugh O’Donnell
No. 2 on the list. The biggest market mover on the list, well backed for the Irishinjuredjockeys.com Claiming Race over a mile on the Polytrack. W J Lee has won on 3 of his last 12 rides (25%) over the past fortnight. Gillian Scott trains the five-year-old gelding, who is rated 76 and carries 9st 6lb in a field of eight. Leonie, the top-rated runner on 84, has drifted in the betting.
13:20 Warwick · Kefir d’Oudairies
No. 3 on the list. Well backed for the FCN Novices’ Hurdle over two miles five furlongs and five yards, with five declared. Gavin Sheehan has won on 11 of his last 35 rides (31%) over the past fortnight and takes the ride on the six-year-old gelding at 11st 0lb. Olly Murphy trains him and also runs Largy Force, who is rated 135, twelve pounds higher than Kefir d’Oudairies on 123, but has shortened less in the betting.
15:13 Ayr · Whistle Stop Tour
No. 4 on the list. Well backed for the Coral “We’re Here For It” Handicap Chase over three miles and 20 yards, and a course winner: the eight-year-old gelding has won two of his six starts at Ayr since 2010. Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore train him and Patrick Wadge rides at top weight of 12st 1lb. He is rated 123, two pounds behind No Regrets and Bridge Court on 125.
12:50 Warwick · Seraphic
No. 5 on the list. Napped by Rob Wright (The Times) and Dean Kilbryde (East Anglian Daily Times), and the price has shortened. David Killahena and Graeme McPherson’s stable has won with 4 of its last 12 runners (33%) over the past fortnight. Isabelle Ryder rides the six-year-old gelding at 11st 2lb in the Dudley Peverill Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle over two miles three furlongs. He is rated 113, three pounds behind Mister Des Places on 116, who has drifted in the betting.
Whose NAP to trust
These three nap tipsters have the best strike rate over the 28 days to Tuesday 10 November. Here are their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 27 naps (52%). Today: Chuggy, 12:30 Bangor.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Attin, 13:40 Ayr.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Stride On, 13:10 Ayr.
Attin has the most naps of the day, eight, and heads the list. Chuggy, the BGTips.co.uk pick in the 12:30 at Bangor, would have made it on four criteria, but he has drifted in the betting, so he is left off. Stride On, Computeform’s choice, has three naps but meets only one criterion. Every nap is in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves among horses that are not on the list, because none meets a second criterion:
- Dreamings Free (14:13 Ayr): price down by about 73%.
- Kinbara Firstdraft (14:13 Ayr): price down by about 50%.
- Lady Quigley (15:00 Dundalk): price down by about 50%.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Tuesday’s Hot List had four runners and one winner. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £3.25 from £4 staked, a loss of £0.75. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
How a horse makes the list
Every runner is checked against seven criteria: a big market move, naps, the horse’s own course record, and the trainer’s and jockey’s recent form and course records. A horse needs to meet two, one of them a market move or a nap. Horses that have drifted in the betting are left out and the list is capped at ten.
Prices checked at 08:41 GMT on Wednesday 11 November and subject to change. Form covers 28 October to 10 November. Course records cover races since 1 January 2010, which is as far as our data runs, so they are not career figures.
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