The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Storm Heart in the 14:00 at Fairyhouse, one of two runners to reach three signals among four qualifiers. The price has shortened from 7/2 to 15/8 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, Willie Mullins’ stable has had 7 winners from 24 runners over the past fortnight, and Paul Townend has 138 winners from 547 rides at Fairyhouse since 2010.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Four runners qualify today. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm Heart | 14:00 Fairyhouse | Backed / Trainer / Jockey | 7/2 to 15/8 · Mullins 7 winners from 24 in 14 days · Townend 138 from 547 at course |
| 2 | Rebel Tribesman | 15:50 Lingfield | Napped / Trainer / Jockey | 4 naps · Snowden 9 winners from 25 in 14 days · Sheehan 29 from 130 at course |
| 3 | Warmer Days Ahead | 13:30 Fairyhouse | Backed / Napped | 13/2 to 10/3 · 2 naps |
| 4 | Kel Histoire | 14:00 Fairyhouse | Backed / Trainer | 12/1 to 7/1 · Mullins 7 winners from 24 in 14 days |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw backs the list topper, Storm Heart, from today’s list:
“Storm Heart is the one I want from the list. He’s been backed from 7/2 to 15/8 with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting, Willie Mullins has had seven winners from 24 over the past fortnight, and Paul Townend has 138 winners from 547 rides at Fairyhouse since 2010. The favourite, Ballyfad, has five naps but has drifted from 6/5 to 6/4, and the top-rated runner, Franciscan Rock on 138, has gone from 10/1 to 28/1, so the money isn’t following the tipsters here. Kel Histoire has been backed from 12/1 to 7/1 for the same yard, but I prefer the one with Townend on board. At 15/8 I’m happy to side with the stable and the market.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Storm Heart · 14:00 Fairyhouse
Storm Heart has been backed from 7/2 to 15/8 for the Irish National Hunt Steeplechase CLG Beginners Chase over two miles four furlongs, with 20 of 23 bookmakers cutting. Only Ballyfad is shorter in the market in a field of 12. Willie Mullins trains the six-year-old gelding, and his stable has had 7 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, a 29% strike rate. Paul Townend rides at 11st 12lb and has 138 winners from 547 rides at Fairyhouse since 2010, a 25% strike rate.
2. Rebel Tribesman · 15:50 Lingfield
Rebel Tribesman is the most-napped runner on the list, with four naps from Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail, Newsboy in the Daily Mirror, Lambourn in the Racing Post and Tipman Tips at tipmantips.com. The price has shortened from 5/4 to evens for the Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap Hurdle over two miles seven furlongs, but only 3 of 24 bookmakers cut by 20% or more, well short of the market signal. Jamie Snowden trains the five-year-old gelding, and his stable has had 9 winners from 25 runners over the past 14 days, a 36% strike rate. Gavin Sheehan rides at 12st 0lb and has 29 winners from 130 rides at Lingfield since 2010, a 22% strike rate. Rebel Tribesman is rated 118, three pounds behind Spike Jones and Secret Trix on 121.
3. Warmer Days Ahead · 13:30 Fairyhouse
Warmer Days Ahead has been backed from 13/2 to 10/3 for the William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle over three miles and 110 yards, with 16 of 23 bookmakers cutting, the biggest market move on the list. He is napped by Karl Hedley in the Irish Post and Jim Delahunt in the Scottish Sun. Oliver McKiernan trains the seven-year-old gelding, who carries 10st 10lb and is rated 121, five pounds behind Fuusland on 126, a drifter from 7/2 to 8/1. Phillip Enright rides in a field of 13.
4. Kel Histoire · 14:00 Fairyhouse
The second qualifier from the Beginners Chase, and the second Willie Mullins runner in it. Kel Histoire has been backed from 12/1 to 7/1, with 19 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and the stable’s 7 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, a 29% strike rate, provide the second signal. Mark Walsh rides the six-year-old gelding at 11st 12lb.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Monday 9 November, and their picks today:
- BGTips.co.uk: 15 winners from 27 naps (56%). Today: Quatre Saison, 12:30 Fairyhouse.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 12 winners from 27 naps (44%). Today: Ballyfad, 14:00 Fairyhouse.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 12 winners from 28 naps (43%). Today: Kamille Au Kanada, 14:20 Lingfield.
The most-napped horse of the day is Ballyfad in the Beginners Chase at 14:00 Fairyhouse, with five naps. He has two signals, naps and Jack Kennedy’s record at the course, but the price has drifted from 6/5 to 6/4, so he misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning that are not on the Hot List all miss out because none has a second signal:
- Western Soldier (14:50 Lingfield): 13/2 to 11/4, a 50% move.
- Mountain Port (14:40 Huntingdon): 28/1 to 14/1, a 48% move.
- Westerton (15:10 Huntingdon): 11/1 to 11/2, a 46% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Monday’s Hot List had ten runners and three of them won. Lune Brillante (6/4) travelled strongly in the Stratford novices’ hurdle, led approaching the last and went well clear to win easily, while Eastern Fire (8/15) won the Stratford maiden hurdle comfortably and Emid’io Pepe (8/15) made all in a two-runner beginners’ chase. Poets Whisper (13/8) was beaten a short head in the Carlisle maiden hurdle. List topper Disco Annie (7/2) hung left and weakened after two out to finish seventh of seven at Carlisle, beaten around 9½ lengths. She Is For Me Boys (5/1) was outpaced after three out and was fourth of five in the Stratford mares’ chase, beaten around eight lengths. Major Fortune (7/2) was third and Sunshine Diamond (15/8) fourth in the Stratford handicap chase, both beaten around 22 lengths. Gaelic Glow (100/30) was seventh at Carlisle, beaten around 22 lengths, and Madame La Papillon (11/4) was pulled up at the last in the same race. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned £5.57 from £10 staked, a loss of £4.43. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:03 GMT on Tuesday 10 November and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 27 October to 9 November; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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