The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Il Etait Temps in the 15:10 at Clonmel, the only runner with three signals among six qualifiers. He has three naps, including one from BGTips.co.uk, the best nap tipster over the past 28 days, Willie Mullins’ stable has had 6 winners from 24 runners over the past fortnight, and Paul Townend has 55 winners from 228 rides at Clonmel since 2010. He is a short price and the market has barely moved, so he leads the list without a market signal.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Six runners qualify today, two each at Clonmel and Newbury and one each at Southwell and Chelmsford. Course and jockey records come from our database, which covers races from 1 January 2010, so they show records since then rather than full careers.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Il Etait Temps | 15:10 Clonmel | Napped / Trainer / Jockey | 3 naps, including BGTips.co.uk · Mullins 6 winners from 24 in 14 days · Paul Townend 55 winners from 228 at course since 2010 |
| 2 | Boo Radley | 14:00 Clonmel | Backed / Trainer | 14/1 to 5/1 · Mullins 6 winners from 24 in 14 days |
| 3 | Quiet Soul | 17:00 Southwell | Backed / Trainer | 12/1 to 7/1 · Herrington 5 winners from 19 in 14 days |
| 4 | Treasure Planet | 12:42 Newbury | Backed / Napped | 5/1 to 3/1 · 2 naps |
| 5 | Dark Side Thunder | 18:15 Chelmsford | Backed / Napped | 10/1 to 13/2 · 2 naps |
| 6 | Gowel Road | 14:25 Newbury | Backed / Course | 25/1 to 18/1 · 2 wins from 4 at course since 2010 |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw picks out Treasure Planet, fourth on today’s list, as his choice:
“Treasure Planet is the one I want from today’s list. He won on his latest start, he shares the top rating of 129 in this conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle, and his only previous visit to Newbury produced a second. The market has come for him from 5/1 to 3/1, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and two Racing Post tipsters, RP Ratings and West Country, both make him their nap. He isn’t the price he was first thing, but in a field of 16 I’d still rather be with the horse that has the rating, the recent form and the support all in his favour.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Il Etait Temps · 15:10 Clonmel
Il Etait Temps is napped by Steve Mullington at William Hill Racing, Mercury in the Daily Post and BGTips.co.uk, which has 14 winners from its last 27 naps. The price has barely moved for the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase over two miles, four furlongs and 171 yards, from 1/5 to 1/6, with one of 23 bookmakers cutting by 20% or more. Willie Mullins trains the eight-year-old and his stable has had 6 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. Paul Townend rides and has 55 winners from 228 rides at Clonmel since 2010, a 24% strike rate. Il Etait Temps won his only previous start at Clonmel, carries 11st 12lb and is rated 181 in a field of four, 15 pounds clear of Kappa Jy Pyke on 166.
2. Boo Radley · 14:00 Clonmel
Boo Radley has the biggest market move on the list, backed from 14/1 to 5/1 for the Clonmel Oil Service Station Handicap Hurdle over three miles, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. He is also the nap of Adrian Wall at myracing.com. The stable provides the second signal: Willie Mullins has had 6 winners from 24 runners over the past 14 days, a 25% strike rate. Charlie O’Dwyer rides the five-year-old at 10st 13lb, and Boo Radley is the top-rated runner in the field of seven on 129, four pounds clear of Hopeful Hero.
3. Quiet Soul · 17:00 Southwell
Quiet Soul has been cut from 12/1 to 7/1 for the Midnite It’s Actually Pretty Good Nursery Handicap over six furlongs, with 21 of 24 bookmakers cutting. The stable provides the second signal: Michael Herrington has had 5 winners from 19 runners over the past 14 days, a 26% strike rate. Jason Hart rides the two-year-old at 9st 6lb. Quiet Soul has form figures of 238546 and is rated 70, a pound below Ventura Power. The market is busy in this race: Rum Point has been backed from 33/1 to 12/1 and North Star Kodi from 11/2 to 3/1.
4. Treasure Planet · 12:42 Newbury
Treasure Planet has been backed from 5/1 to 3/1 for the OLBG Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle over two miles and 69 yards, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by RP Ratings and West Country in the Racing Post. Paul Nicholls trains the four-year-old, who won on his latest start and was second on his only previous run at Newbury. Conditional rider Freddie Keighley rides at 11st 9lb, and Treasure Planet shares the top rating of 129 with Beorma in a field of 16. Zarakerjack, in the same race, also has two naps, but his price has drifted from 5/1 to 11/2.
5. Dark Side Thunder · 18:15 Chelmsford
Dark Side Thunder is napped by The Punt in the Racing Post and Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail, and has been cut from 10/1 to 13/2 for the Midnite It’s Actually Pretty Good Handicap over six furlongs, with 17 of 22 bookmakers cutting. Jessica Macey trains the seven-year-old, who has won one of four starts at Chelmsford since 2010, and George Wood rides at 9st 6lb. Dark Side Thunder is rated 78 in a field of 11, a pound below Preferred.
6. Gowel Road · 14:25 Newbury
Gowel Road has shortened from 25/1 to 18/1 for the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, a Class 2 race over three miles and 57 yards, with 15 of 24 bookmakers cutting, just enough for a market signal. The ten-year-old has won two of four starts at Newbury since 2010. Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies train and Toby McCain-Mitchell rides at 12st 0lb. Gowel Road is rated 148 in a field of 17, two pounds below Bill Baxter on 150. Splendid Fellow, in the same race, is the most-napped horse of the day with five.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Wednesday 4 November, and their picks today. Jeffrey Ross and Computeform are level in second place:
- BGTips.co.uk: 14 winners from 27 naps (52%). Today: Il Etait Temps, 15:10 Clonmel.
- Jeffrey Ross (Sporting Times): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Hoya Bella, 17:30 Southwell.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Spreadsheet Guru, 12:59 Newcastle.
Il Etait Temps tops the list. Hoya Bella has James Owen’s stable form behind her as well as the nap, but the price has drifted from 7/4 to 9/4, so she misses the list. Spreadsheet Guru has shortened from 13/8 to evens without reaching the 30% move needed, and has no second signal. The most-napped horse of the day is Splendid Fellow in the 14:25 at Newbury, with five naps. He has shortened from 4/1 to 10/3, but naps are his only signal, so he misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Old Kenmare (15:45 Clonmel): 25/1 to 8/1, a 65% move.
- Rum Point (17:00 Southwell): 33/1 to 12/1, a 63% move.
- Magical Life (15:05 Chelmsford): 10/1 to 4/1, a 55% move.
Bigger moves in the 14:35 at Clonmel are left out, because that market has re-formed after several bookmakers marked the odds-on favourite, Dinoblue, as a non-runner. These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Wednesday’s Hot List had nine runners. Corner Forward was withdrawn on a vet’s certificate, and two of the eight that ran won, both at Kempton. Light Of The Stars (evens) led over a furlong out and went clear inside the final furlong, and Persian Spirit (15/8) made smooth headway to lead over a furlong out and kept on well. List topper Red Curry (3/1) kept on for third, beaten four lengths. At Chepstow, Uncle Cc (3/1) had every chance over two furlongs out and was second, beaten three and a quarter lengths, and Red Acres Max (5/6) disputed the lead until two out and was second, beaten four lengths. Heathcliff (11/1) was third at Kempton, beaten three and a half lengths, Best Trump (9/1) was outpaced from two out and went fourth on the run-in at Chepstow, beaten around 26 lengths, and Dance Ifyoucan (28/1) was pulled up. A £1 win bet on each runner at starting price returned £4.88 from £8 staked, a loss of £3.12. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 08:31 GMT on Thursday 5 November and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 22 October to 4 November; course and jockey records cover races since 1 January 2010.
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